T206 Back Breakdown Question

[Lgarza99]

Hi All,

When one looks at a Pop report there are no break downs within each back. For example, Piedmont 150's, 350's, and 350/460's. And Sweet Caporal 150's, 350's etc. From what I have seen they are all lumped into one brand.

Is there a further breakdown available on pops of backs! Or is there an expected breakdown percentage of the backs from each series?

Thanks.

[Sean]

There is some information on the relative rarity of each back at T206resource.com.

[Lgarza99]

Sean,
Thanks. I see American Beauty backs are ranked 13,15,and 21 in difficulty. Could one assume AB 350F at x%, AB350NF at x%, and AB 460 at x%? To make up the total population of 1135 on the PSA pop report? Like 10% 460's, 25% no frame, and AB with frame comprising the balance?

[mrvster]

we all feel your pain in this area! sux wish tpg would differentiate the back breakdown by series....hint....hint....hint:)

[Sean]

Sean,
Thanks. I see American Beauty backs are ranked 13,15,and 21 in difficulty. Could one assume AB 350F at x%, AB350NF at x%, and AB 460 at x%? To make up the total population of 1135 on the PSA pop report? Like 10% 460's, 25% no frame, and AB with frame comprising the balance?

That would be a fairly accurate method of estimating the % of each series.

[sreader3]

Piedmont 150 13.44%
Sweet Caporal 150 7.39%
Sovereign 150 0.86%
Brown Hindu 0.35%
El Principe de Gales 0.93%
Old Mill 2.12%
Piedmont 350 35.03%
Sweet Caporal 350 15.92%
Forest Green Sovereign 350 2.05%
Apple Green Sovereign 350 0.49%
American Beauty 350 with Frame 0.42%
American Beauty 350 No Frame 0.12%
Broad Leaf 350 0.10%
Carolina Brights 0.11%
Cycle 350 0.62%
Polar Bear 5.72%
Tolstoi 0.92%
Drum 0.08%
Red Hindu 0.05%
Black Lenox 0.07%
Brown Lenox < 0.01%
Uzit 0.04%
Piedmont 460, Factory 25 5.49%
Piedmont 460, Factory 42 0.05%
Sweet Caporal 460 4.59%
Sovereign 460 0.51%
American Beauty 460 0.13%
Broad Leaf 460 0.02%
Cycle 460 0.14%
Old Mill Southern 2.27%

These data are from my own study conducted from 2008 - 2013 of over 100,000 T206 sales on the Internet. T206 Resource was not involved in any way, shape or form.

The Drum and Red Hindu numbers may be skewed somewhat due to unusual "finds" of cards with those backs in the time frame of the study that would not normally occur.

Except for Piedmont 42, factory breakdowns are difficult since sellers typically do not identify factories and back scans, where available, are often tough to make out.

Enjoy.

Scot Reader

Edited to add: My list does not include blank back, Old Mill Brown and Old Mill Overprint because it is scrap.

[steve B]

SGC does break out the different series. But it's shown by date rather than 150,350,460.

150's are 1909
350's are 1910
460's are 1911

Ones that don't say a series like PB and OM are done differently.

Steve B

[ChiSoxFan]

we all feel your pain in this area! sux wish tpg would differentiate the back breakdown by series....hint....hint....hint:)

And in some cases, factory number ;)


Thanks

[Leon]

Scot R- That is a great analysis. Thanks for sharing with the hobby and community.

I should add it is interesting to note how Drum is more prevalent than many others.

[scottglevy]

Scot,

Very cool analysis and thanks for sharing!

While the numbers speak for themselves I'd add the following word. I'd caution people about reading too much into the scarcity order of ultra-rare backs from this study because even a 'find' of as small of 20-30 back types could significantly effect the percentage found of that backs (e.g. 0.02% vs. 0.04%)

However, for less rare series the numbers provide compelling stats on relative scarcity and population sizes.

Best Wishes,
Scott

[sreader3]

Leon and Scott,

Thanks for your replies. As I mentioned in one of the notes to my OP, there was a large Drum find/sale and a large Red Hindu find/sale during the study period that probably skewed the data regarding those backs (e.g., those back percentages would probably be lower if a similar study were done from, say, 2014 - 2019).

Scot

[tedzan]

Piedmont 150 13.44%
Sweet Caporal 150 7.39%
Sovereign 150 0.86%
Brown Hindu 0.35%
El Principe de Gales 0.93%
Old Mill 2.12%
Piedmont 350 35.03%
Sweet Caporal 350 15.92%
Forest Green Sovereign 350 2.05%
Apple Green Sovereign 350 0.49%
American Beauty 350 with Frame 0.42%
American Beauty 350 No Frame 0.12%
Broad Leaf 350 0.10%
Carolina Brights 0.11%
Cycle 350 0.62%
Polar Bear 5.72%
Tolstoi 0.92%
Drum 0.08%
Red Hindu 0.05%
Black Lenox 0.07%
Brown Lenox < 0.01%
Uzit 0.04%
Piedmont 460, Factory 25 5.49%
Piedmont 460, Factory 42 0.05%
Sweet Caporal 460 4.59%
Sovereign 460 0.51%
American Beauty 460 0.13%
Broad Leaf 460 0.02%
Cycle 460 0.14%
Old Mill Southern 2.27%

These data are from my own study conducted from 2008 - 2013 of over 100,000 T206 sales on the Internet. T206 Resource was not involved in any way, shape or form.

The Drum and Red Hindu numbers may be skewed somewhat due to unusual "finds" of cards with those backs in the time frame of the study that would not normally occur.

Except for Piedmont 42, factory breakdowns of Sweet Caporal and Piedmont are difficult since sellers typically do not identify factories and back scans where available are tough to make out.

Enjoy.

Scot Reader

Edited to add: My list does not include blank back, Old Mill Brown and Old Mill Overprint because it is scrap.


Hi Scot

This is really great stuff. Thanks for sharing with us these results of your 100,000+ survey of T206 cards.

And, I might add....that a survey of this magnitude overshadows some of the recent finds of DRUM cards,
or red HINDU cards [either of which were discovered within this 6 year period (2008 - 2013); and, limited
to less than 60 subjects each find].
Therefore, in my opinion, I find this data representative of the relative scarcity of the various T206 backs.



TED Z
__________________________________________________ ________________________________________
STILL LOOKING for this T206 guy to complete my EXCLUSIVE 12 red HINDU sub-set (12 subjects)

SHECKARD (glove)
.

[sreader3]

Thanks Ted. Hope you are having a nice summer. Scot

[Sean]

Scot, these are some excellent results that you've determined. Thank you for sharing all this information. :)

[mrvster]

that was impressive! hard core data doesn't lie.....and great points Scott L...

wow:)

Scot....your research is great! do another study!!! do it!!:D

[wonkaticket]

Agree good stuff Scot does know his cards no doubt. As do Ted and the others here.