REA as the "State of the Hobby"

[Bridwell]

It seems to me that REA is the top auction house for prewar baseball cards and collectibles. They consistently have the best selection of rare and high-end auction lots IMO.

Do REA results forecast the State of the Hobby?

For example, if REA prices fall short of expectations, can we conclude that overall prices are on a downward trend?

[bobbyw8469]

I don't think so. Did the high prices that Mastro used to attain along time ago mean that the card market was on the rise?? It's the same thing....

[Orioles1954]

If a 1500 lot auction determines the state of the hobby then we are in big trouble.

[Bored5000]

I don't think REA is an indicator of overall hobby health. Maybe at the very top end that is true, but not an overall state of the hobby. There are many posters on here with amazing collections, but the overall hobby is made up of far more collectors spending $100 a card or $500 a card than the big tickets items at REA.

[Exhibitman]

Remember when $500 a card was a big ticket purchase?

[oldjudge]

If REA results are a measure of the state of the hobby, the hobby looks to be in pretty good shape, especially the scarce Old Judge portion of it.

[MattyC]

I don't think we can aggregate so many unique, individual results and determine if there's disappointment or not hobby wide. Each lot is its own. Each card is its own. Some blow away others in their grade, like that beautiful Croft Cobb or the D304 Cobb or the e90-2 Wags, to name a few. These will likely sell strong as compared to historical prices for their grade. Other epic icons like that Ruth RC and Cobb Back did amazingly. Conversely, a card with weak attributes as compared to others in its grade will sell for less. So personally I am all about each card/lot as a discrete event.

[e107collector]

If REA results are a measure of the state of the hobby, the hobby looks to be in pretty good shape, especially the scarce Old Judge portion of it.

Jay,

I don't follow 19th century cards too much, but did the Deacon White portrait card misidentified as McGreachery, Mgr sell for around the price you expected?

Tony

[MattyC]

Also, there's a big issue in discussions like this that involve expectations. Each collector has his own expectations based on his own knowledge, experience, taste, desire, etc. It's impossible to define a hobby wide standard expectation. Many different collectors will value the same card very differently. So to one a card might over perform, to another that same card might be a disappointment.

[oldjudge]

Tony--it exceeded my expectations. Having said that, the card really had no price history for comparison.

[Leon]

Also, there's a big issue in discussions like this that involve expectations. Each collector has his own expectations based on his own knowledge, experience, taste, desire, etc. It's impossible to define a hobby wide standard expectation. Many different collectors will value the same card very differently. So to one a card might over perform, to another that same card might be a disappointment.

Absolutely. I paid around 5600 for the Tattoo Orbit 5 poster lot. Four of those exact same ones realized over $20k, 4 yrs ago. With super rare items it is difficult to say, on a per item basis, how healthy the hobby is from one auction result. But I think what can be said, when taken in it's totality, the REA auction did show the hobby is very healthy. I think it has to do with the stock market being up also. If we had lost 25% like we did a few years back, I am not sure so many people would have been as free-wheeling with their bids.

[MattyC]

As usual, Leon, you and I are on the same wavelength. I think on a very basic level that if multiple cards are being sold for six digits and up, that shows that the hobby is healthy. Does that mean that 70s and 80s cards or a low pop 1960's common will shatter historical prices when next offered? Of course not.

Ultimately though, a card can sell for X amount of dollars...

"Collector A" can say to himself, "What a steal! Wish I bid higher!"

"Collector B" can say, "I can't believe someone paid that much for that!"

"Collector C" of stamps, can say, "I wouldn't pay a penny for any card; they're all worthless to me."

Everybody has their own expectations and valuations. One man's trash is another man's treasure. I've never called girls back who are wives today.

Bottom line, all it ever takes is two who agree, to make something worth a great amount.

[1880nonsports]

when I made a quick calculation REA was making nearly 3,000. a minute in fees and recieving 15+ bids a minute in that time frame. The hobby seems pretty solid :-)

[barrysloate]

It certainly tells us something about the hobby, and prices do seem to be incredibly strong. Since REA generally deals in high end expensive lots, it doesn't tell us much about the meat and potatoes mainstream stuff. But it would be hard to walk away with any impression other than people with a lot of money are happy to spend it on quality baseball cards.

[MyGuyTy]

Bottom line, all it ever takes is two who agree, to make something worth a great amount.

Only problem with this logic is when it comes time to sell.....ruh roh! Better hope you find the other guy who thinks it's still worth it or else you're the one absorbing a massive loss on the resale. It's awesome if you NEVER EVER plan on selling it.....not so awesome when you don't want it anymore ;)

[MattyC]

Agreed, and it all depends on the item. If it was just two guys that drove it initially and no one new has decided to pursue the item in the intervening years, then yes, that could be a problem. But that dreaded scenario is specific to the case of two bidders and only those two interested parties all the way until resale. I'd venture that more often than not, with time, and with high-end items that are desirable to many, there will always be at least two to tango and make sure the price stays in the ballpark. The resale scenario also brings into account one's expectations. Some guys take the loss of even a dollar as a debacle. Others think breaking even is a triumph, when they have gotten such joy out of owning a cherished piece. So there are a lot of variables in play.

[sb1]

A couple of things to consider, baseball cards/memorabilia bought at auction are usually bought at full retail and the secondary resale market is not factored in the price, where as cars, antiques, etc are bought at wholesale at auction and then marked up for retail resale. The sportscard/memorabilia market can be a very thin market with many ebbs and flows, and not as transparent as the coin or stamp hobbies(who each have 100's to 1000's of collectors for every vintage baseball collector) with printed buy/sell spreads(of which the buy is often back of bid and only fully priced on very liquid issues).

I guess my point is, that this entire hobby can be a very difficult morass for many people to traverse. Many times you roll the dice or go with your gut, results are not guaranteed!

None of this should be taken as criticism on any parties or feeling of right or wrong, just putting out some thought provoking rhetoric. If you buy something and feel you paid what it was worth to you, you should be happy and enjoy it. If at some point you need or want to sell it, one can only hope that the investment holds it's own or appreciates. Some people buy with no intention of ever selling, others the horizon is much closer.

Oh, and to answer the question posed by the OP, the market appears to be very strong in most areas of pre-war, especially select 19th Century Memorabilia and Cards. Whether post-war high grade material will make a comeback remains to be seen. As in any collectible, rarity and condition will hold value or appreciate faster.

[wonkaticket]

All thought provoking inputs here. I'm not sure what to think anymore but if any of you know roughly when the bottom will fall out of this thing. Can you please email me a few months prior? Thanks in advance.

Cheers,

John

[sb1]

I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon. We had a period of 2008-2011, mirroring the economy where prices got softer, but most issues have recovered and several have surpassed prices realized at that time. It's like land "they ain't making it anymore". For those hoping of a crash and sweeping up bargains, I don't think they will ever see it. Unless you want to go on Craig's List and buy "Old Baseball Cards" all the 1980's/90's sets and wax you can haul home for chump change.

[nolemmings]

Remember when $500 a card was a big ticket purchase?

For some of us it still is :)

[barrysloate]

I don't expect a crash or the bottom falling out either, but it is a marketplace dictated by economics, so ebbs and flows should be anticipated. Not every vintage baseball card will go in only one direction. Some will soften and may be less expensive down the road. But that's a far cry from a crash.

[bcornell]

I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon... For those hoping of a crash and sweeping up bargains, I don't think they will ever see it.

REA is *always* an anomaly, in my opinion. This is a small hobby and just a few players (or their absence) can have a huge affect on prices. However, the knives come out every spring with REA and makes it look like we're back on an upswing. I'm not sure that's the case.


Bill

[MattyC]

My opinion is that you can take REA's top lots this year and auction them in my nana's basement or a Popeye's Chicken, and they would do almost if not just as well.

It's the cards. Each discrete card. Not an AH. Not the hobby as a whole. Not one TPG. Not a sticker grade. For elite cards like the Cobb Back and that centered, horizontal-line free M101 Ruth, and the Old Judge White, all that matters is the card.

You put cards like those up for sale and let the collecting community know, and those who are after such pieces will find them, and there will inevitably be more than one wealthy collector who sees the card's beauty/ desirability and bids accordingly.

[nolemmings]

Speaking of that Globe Ruth, is anyone else surprised to see it up so soon after just being auctioned by Goodwin seven months ago? It sold for $148,158.57 at that time--did someone really hope to flip it for much more so soon and at that price? Looks like it sold for slightly less now. Just trying to understand the motivation or strategy here-- buyer's remorse, unexpected need for cash, etc. would of course be possible, but seems unlikely that flipping for big bucks was realistic.

On the other hand, that exact card sold in REA back in 2001 for $8209. If the same owner sold it in Goodwin, that's a pretty nice little ROI.

[Bosox Blair]

I don't see the bottom falling out anytime soon. We had a period of 2008-2011, mirroring the economy where prices got softer, but most issues have recovered and several have surpassed prices realized at that time. It's like land "they ain't making it anymore". For those hoping of a crash and sweeping up bargains, I don't think they will ever see it. Unless you want to go on Craig's List and buy "Old Baseball Cards" all the 1980's/90's sets and wax you can haul home for chump change.

Hi Scott,

I never say never, but I pretty much agree with what you wrote. I also feel the bargain prices of 2008-2011/12 are behind us, and the 2014 prices seem much stronger for quality pre-war material.

In terms of the OP, I'm mostly a card collector, so most of my attention was there. I put in placeholder bids on 21 lots I liked. A mixture (mostly cards) of E-cards, W-cards, T204s, 19th C display pieces and HOF autographs. Every single one one of my card lots went too high for me...almost all well above VCP-recorded transactions in the 2008-2012 period.

I ended up getting a lovely 19th C display piece for a relatively low price...no cards.

Cheers,
Blair

[Bridwell]

It seems REA did quite well again this year. I think it is a indicator of an upswing in the demand for prewar. Personally, I was expecting some bargains and didn't find very many.

[topcat61]

REA is a fantastic outlet but I dont think major auctions/houses are a good indicator of the Hobby's health or what prices normally go for. You generally see a wide range of emotion that dictate the value at auction. On the other end of that spectrum, shows and conventions are usually where you can throw the price guide out the window. What I mean is that often times the sticker price isn't reflective of what you should be paying either, just a starting point. I'd do research on a site like ebay or another that tracks past sales of graded cards (the site mane escapes me right now, sorry about that) to judge how much you should pay.

However, 70% of the hobby should be about research into the cards you want to collect before going out to acquire them. I'd also say that while doing this, realize that some opportunities only come by once or twice but being aware of that isn't always easy. Good luck!