Future of card grading?

[Vintagevault13]

I am not much of a graded card collector, but am certainly not saying I won't begin collecting graded cards in the future. That possibility leads to my question:

What do you see as the future of card grading? With some of the recent controversies (perceived Higher grades for "preferred customers", inconsistent grading, "the Wagner", etc.), what will the industry look like in 5 - 10 years? Is collector trust eroding? What impact will technology have? Curious to read opinions, especially from those much more experienced in the graded card market than I am.

[h2oya311]

I think PSA has really captured the interest of folks by their incredible set registry. It's a great way to "compete" w/ fellow collectors and will likely be here to stay.

That said, the price for a submission of a card worth over $100 is ridiculous. I don't know how that price can be sustainable, but I'm sure the dealers get preferential rates (and grades).

I personally love the SGC graded cards because of their sleek designs and great prices (relatively speaking). I am also not looking to sell, so I can tolerate the tougher grading standards and relatively lower prices on SGC vs PSA cards.

In my opinion, SGC has dominated the pre-war market (where condition doesn't matter as much) and PSA dominates the post-war domain, particularly where set collecting and set registry folks look to one-up their competition.

I bet others would disagree, but I think PSA is here to stay. I worry about SGC, especially with their website design and poor registry. But because neither of those matter too much to me, I'm sticking w/ them. Plus I really like having my cards protected in plastic. If I were to pass away, selling my cards will be much easier for my wife w/ the card set, player, and grade clearly defined on the flip.

Just my 2 cents.

[brian1961]

First, I think you need to step back and contemplate just why Third Party Grading arose. To be sure, the grading companies overcharge, while the entire submission process is cumbersome and not user friendly. Be that as it may, buyers were getting burned so often by sellers claiming their wares were such and such high grade, and they simply were not. All they needed was for someone to believe their pitch and viola---sold.

Third party grading is not a perfect system, and there will always be controversies. However, our hobby cannot retreat to the old days of:

"A screamer!"

"Try to find another"

"You could shave with this one."

"Best one I've ever seen."

"Best one I've ever handled."

"Smell the gum."

"Guaranteed pack-fresh."

"I expect a two-page thank-you letter after you get this."

"These have disappeared from the market. You walk away, and this Aaron won't be here when you finally decide you want it and come back! You'll have nightmares of regret to your dying day!"

"This Aaron is the one you've looking for"

With third party grading, a well-experienced card grader has looked at the card. He didn't look very long; they cannot afford to have him agonize for an hour over the sucker. But they are in place because they can call a spade a spade quickly, day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.

Then, when it's graded and available, and perchance you have the opportunity to buy it, you at least won't have to agonize yourself over the grade. As PSA's Joe Orlando has said many times, there are high-end 8s and low-end 8s, etc. Characteristics such as print spots, picture registry, centering, and so forth were all taken into consideration when the grade was decided. IT'S NOW UP TO YOU TO DECIDE IF YOU WANT IT, IF IT MEETS YOUR EXPECTATIONS, AND ULTIMATELY, IF YOU'D BE REALLY HAPPY WITH IT. IF YOU CANNOT MAKE THAT KIND OF DECISION BY YOURSELF NOW, GET OUT OF THE HOBBY. NOT TRYING TO BE A SMART BUTTHEAD, BUT YOU'LL SIMPLY HAVE TO MAKE A DECISION. IF YOU TEND TO SECOND GUESS YOURSELF ALL THE TIME, YOU WON'T BE HAPPY WITH YOUR HOBBY.

Again, there's always going to be controversy and accusations. But I for one do not want to go back to taking someone's word for a card's grade. True, a graded card carries someone's word for it, but they're professionals, objective, and well-experienced. If certain deep-pocketed submitters are getting a very unfair advantage, then the hobby may indeed be eventually doomed.

As for the Wagner, PSA should simply admit that they did not know it was hand-cut, and leave the grade as is. Bill Mastro simply completed the job that the cutters/printers did not do. Yes, he should have come out and said this initially, but we are not talking about a '62 Topps Jerry Lumpe, are we? An exception could and should be made for THE WAGNER, because it is THE WAGNER. Nothing is remotely close to it condition-wise. For all intents and purposes, it is pristine. True, one could say Bill Mastro had an unfair advantage, but he spent 25K to assume the risk that he could hand-cut that king-sized ruby from the strip it was printed on. One slip of the blade, and he's out his 25K. He cut it with perfect precision. PSA should just make an exception for this one card, because it's our hobby's masterpiece, and let's get on with collecting.

So far the hobby would not buy such a notion. The brunt of it seems many just want to get on the bandwagon to get at Mastro. However, the hand-cutting of the Wagner was simply just the icing on the cake. A cake of genuine misdeeds, it appears.:(

My 5 cents. ----Brian Powell

[Section103]

I can see technology turning grading on it's ear but I don't see grading going away. I think the interest would be there for highly technical reports detailing surface blemishes, card measurements, print anomalies and such.

[T205 GB]

It's quite amazing the cost involved in making software and equipment to grade electronically. Then the new type slabs, data base registry, and the ability to track a card that's been through the system no matter the grading slab it's in for one of the most accurate pop reports out there.

[steve B]

I can see technology turning grading on it's ear but I don't see grading going away. I think the interest would be there for highly technical reports detailing surface blemishes, card measurements, print anomalies and such.

I also think there's room for a more premium service that details the reasons for the grade. It would be more expensive of course, but I don't see that as a bad thing.

The stuff I think will happen

Someone will offer or simply start doing high resolution scans of each card.
And they'll make them accessible just like the population reports. Perhaps with a fee for full high res, and free thumbnails.
Holders will become more tamper resistant.

Stuff I think might happen.
Someone will build a registry that's company independent. So someone with a mixed set, including SGC, PSA, Beckett, and maybe GAI and a couple other companies as well as ungraded cards could use the registry for stuff besides competition. Of course there would be weighting skewed towards their own brand and a bit by reputation. So for instance if it was done by SGC they could give a small bonus weighting to SGC cards, no bonus for PSA or Beckett, and a small penalty for GAI (I'm less familiar with the others)

Holders will be more customizable. For instance PSA could offer holders with some sort of insert making the look more like SGC, and SGC could offer At least one different color insert. (Like a light color insert for sets like 71 Topps and 1950 Drakes.) Or one with no insert making the look more like PSA.
That would work well, for some reason to me modern cards look a bit better in the all clear holder.

For T206 most companies will start tracking backs in more detail.

Stuff that should happen, but isn't likely.

The price structure will stay the same, but the turnaround time will change. It's fine to spend under a minute on for example a 1980's common, and doing that when you get around to it. But being in a bigger hurry on more expensive cards is just backwards.
That would be more like some of the other hobbies.
It will probably never happen. There may be insurance issues with keeping expensive items longer, and people have come to expect their stuff back as quickly as possible.
Stamps through the philatelic foundation are supposedly running 5-6 weeks no matter what the item is. They do offer a rush service for a reasonable extra charge, but it's not like the walkthrough sort of thing. More like an extra $20 to make the standard turnaround 15 days instead of 30-35.
Their process is also more extensive http://www.philatelicfoundation.org/expertizing-process/the-process/

Technology may change some of the technical aspects like measuring size or centering, but I don't think it will completely take over.

Steve B

[brewing]

I bet others would disagree, but I think PSA is here to stay. I worry about SGC, especially with their website design and poor registry.

I agree. If I had the money, I'd be salivating at an opportunity to buy SGC. The registry is a huge business opportunity being missed.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Wite3]

If the past is an indication...

5 years out: Quarter Grades...my PSA 8.25 is better than your PSA 8
10 years out: Tenth grades...my PSA 7.8 is better than your PSA 7.6

[midwaylandscaping]

"Stuff I think might happen.
Someone will build a registry that's company independent. So someone with a mixed set, including SGC, PSA, Beckett, and maybe GAI and a couple other companies as well as ungraded cards could use the registry for stuff besides competition. Of course there would be weighting skewed towards their own brand and a bit by reputation. So for instance if it was done by SGC they could give a small bonus weighting to SGC cards, no bonus for PSA or Beckett, and a small penalty for GAI (I'm less familiar with the others)"


I like the idea of a company independent registry. Would certainly suit me fine. Logistically though, wow. Would have to start up a company and get the major graders on board. Of the Big 3 I could see SGC playing along, maybe even BGS but no way would PSA agree IMO. Lesser knowns like ISA, GMA, KSA would probably play along also. PSA would never be a part however IMO :rolleyes:

[brewing]

"Stuff I think might happen.
Someone will build a registry that's company independent. So someone with a mixed set, including SGC, PSA, Beckett, and maybe GAI and a couple other companies as well as ungraded cards could use the registry for stuff besides competition. Of course there would be weighting skewed towards their own brand and a bit by reputation. So for instance if it was done by SGC they could give a small bonus weighting to SGC cards, no bonus for PSA or Beckett, and a small penalty for GAI (I'm less familiar with the others)"


Shhhh David. This is a business plan I have been secretly dreaming about.

[ReefBlue]

I would love to see technology really take hold of grading a card and run off the end of the earth with it.

Place it on a platten, have a laser scan its overall dimensions to the micron.

Rounded corners? How would you like to know each corner's radii?

Then, it could actually get the quality of the ink and its brightness and come up with a value vs. a known brightness of what the ink should be vs. its age.

It could also determine, based on where it finds the white border, the exact centering. 55/45? Give me a break--54.3877/46.6123 is a lot better.

You could even go as far as to invisibly microstamp each card with the serial number recieved at time of grading. This way, if it was ever cracked and resubmitted (or stolen and resubbed) you'd know it is showing up for a second go around.

Of course, unless you have hundreds of these machines, wait times would spiral out of control, but you'd have the perfectly graded card.

[mattsey9]

I agree. If I had the money, I'd be salivating at an opportunity to buy SGC. The registry is a huge business opportunity being missed.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I second this. I've often wondered just why they don't seem to give a damn about their registry/website forum. Huge waste of an opportunity to grow their business and take market share away from PSA.

[CMIZ5290]

I would love to see technology really take hold of grading a card and run off the end of the earth with it.

Place it on a platten, have a laser scan its overall dimensions to the micron.

Rounded corners? How would you like to know each corner's radii?

Then, it could actually get the quality of the ink and its brightness and come up with a value vs. a known brightness of what the ink should be vs. its age.

It could also determine, based on where it finds the white border, the exact centering. 55/45? Give me a break--54.3877/46.6123 is a lot better.

You could even go as far as to invisibly microstamp each card with the serial number recieved at time of grading. This way, if it was ever cracked and resubmitted (or stolen and resubbed) you'd know it is showing up for a second go around.

Of course, unless you have hundreds of these machines, wait times would spiral out of control, but you'd have the perfectly graded card.

John- Are you kidding or what?? What a concept that would be!