Future of the Hobby/ Responses needed

[campyfan39]

Hello everyone.
I am finishing up a book about collecting cards (50-80's topps) with my late father. I wanted to close the book by talking about the future of our great hobby. I am looking for opinions, quotes, stats, etc.
It seems as if every show I go to all of the dealers are old men. I know a lot of us use the net now but what do you think is the future for card collecting?

Thanks in advance!
Chris

[Rich Klein]

The hobby is evolving but as you mentioned many of the interpersonal relationships (show, stores) are disappearing and yes when you got a normal show or a store, many of the dealers will be older men who are used to that millieu.

However, look at a site such as Net 54, we skew older than most baseball card hobby web sites yet we are younger then what you describe and other sites (such as Blowout cards or freedom card board) are much younger. If you look at Twitter, Facebook, or other social media sites, the average skews younger and when I set up at the local Dallas area show in July, a young man was telling me about a network used by even younger collectors.

The pros, we will still have a hobby

The cons, many of the things we grew up with including base cards being important. have gone away -- I think there is still a great deal of power in seeing cards of more than just the top 100 but thiat is just me.

I write about this topic fairly frequently in my Sports Collectors Daily column so please feel free to read and quote what is needed with proper citation

Rich

[campyfan39]

Thank you Rich. I enjoy and look forward to your facebook posts!

[39special]

It seems cards in those years('50's-'80's) are still popular.It also seems some younger people are collecting those years.
There are always ups and downs,but I think its pretty strong.

[Cardboard Junkie]

In my opinion the hobby is already dead, it just hasn't fallen down yet.:(

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

I am 40. I can remember 20 or 25 years ago having at least 5 brick and mortar card shops to go to, and the area I live in is not large. Looking back, these shops had a pretty good selection. The Internet (especially eBay) began to change everything in the second half of the 90s. Shops folded up, and even a lot of dealers who had their own websites went to eBay....this seems to have lightened up in the last few years. Guys who had shops sold out of their houses and on eBay. I now have access to one shop which is about 60 miles from my house. It is worth the drive. I don't care how extensive an on line inventory a dealer has, there is NO substitute for looking at and handling vintage cards in person. This includes commons and not just stars. Until computer and iPad screens give one the ability to smell the cardboard and musty surroundings of a real card shop, the experience on line will be cheaper. The shop I go to is owned by a gentleman in his early 70s. He is great and fair-minded and usually has good inventory. We all have lots of good conversation about the hobby. He has quality auctions every Tuesday night, too. He won't be around forever. When he's gone, I am not sure what I will do. I will always collect, but it won't be as good without that shop.

It's painting with a broad brush I know, but most of the "collectors" I know who are close to my age are really investment guys. Some of them know it, some don't. For them, on line works fine. Everything they buy is or will soon be in a plastic holder and sold the second a profit can be made, unless of course they are registry hounds. For me, there is something nostalgic, even romantic about 50s baseball cards. Our country grew up alongside baseball. I never even saw the guys I collect play, but they are larger than life heroes to me. I read about them, I watch documentaries about them, and I collect their cards. I guess that's how I see it. Thanks for asking, and best of luck with your book.

[brewing]

If stamps are still a hobby and hold their value, baseballcards are a long way from a dead hobby.

[Leon]

From my perspective the hobby grew exponentially (by leaps and bounds) with the advent of the internet. Now we can collaborate in seconds what used to take days, weeks and months. So if you have 10000 disparate collectors then that is one thing. However, if you have 5000 collectors that all collect together, then you have a much bigger and stronger hobby. I believe that is the best thing the internet has done for us. Most of us wouldn't have the collections we do today without the internet. I have quite often thought about this subject and I think it makes sense. That being said, I still love shows, especially the National. There is nothing like getting together every year with hundreds of my friends to hoot and holler.

[tulsaboy]

For what little it's worth, I think the hobby is in serious trouble. I think it will always exist in some form or another, because there will always be baseball fans, history fans, or folks who do things because their fathers did them and their fathers before. I would argue that a lot of this trouble can be placed squarely at the feet of both MLB and of the card manufacturers.

I collected primarily in the mid-80's-mid 90's, and was around for the transition from the older, simpler style sets (focus is the base set, there are some inserts and/or accessory sets to collect) to the newer model (who cares about the base set, everything is focused on chasing the inserts, 1/1 cards and parallel sets.) That approach, combined with the strike and the increased focus on cards as an investment instead of cards as simple fun has devestated our hobby, at least as it relates to kids.

Kids shouldn't have to worry about investments, value growth, condition, population reports and the other vagaries of our hobby that they now do. Collecting your favorite team, your favorite player, getting that small handful of packs from the corner store and hoping against all hope that they hold that one last card you need for your set- those should be the focus of a child.

I'm one who was not bothered at all by overproduction. The classic cited examples are 1988-1989 Topps and Donruss. You can still buy cases of those cards for less than they sold at wholesale when they were produced, and that is 24-25 years after the fact! Someone who wants a nice example of their favorite player's rookie card, if that player rookied in those years, can still get it for less than a buck. Collecting those sets is simple fun, and the focus is on the players, the cards, and the experience- not on the return on investment. I agree that it got rediculous, but I remember well searching through huge piles of those packs at Kmart, Target, Skaggs and Safeway, looking for Kevin Seitzer on the top of a blister pack, or Tom Glavine on the top of a Score wax pack, or for Sam Horn smiling from a rack pack. It was just fun. And because of the overproduction, mom bought those packs at a quarter each.

Cards are way too expensive. I understand economics, and that they aren't going to be 25 cents forever. But imagine a return to a product that focuses on a base set, with the occasional inserts. And those inserts aren't limited editions, or relic cards, or parallel sets- they are deckle edges, or stamps, or coins, or a game, or a glossy all-star set. Imagine 50 cent packs of 5 cards each, or 1 dollar packs with 10-12; imagine a rack pack where you could see the stars in all their glory peeking through the cellophane. What in the world is wrong with that?

Topps' monopoly did bring some semblance of order to a situation that had grown out of control. But like most sitautions, monopolies often aren't a good thing. It could be that a card company or product like I outlined above wouldn't find a market, because there wouldn't be the chance of finding the $500 card or the 1/1 relic card; it could be that it would be an absolute flop. But the way Topps has approached things, relic cards have lost their luster; parallel sets aren't anything unique; and the way they are chewing through their old sets and the tobacco-era products, it is only a matter of time before you see a Topps Archives set with everyone in the "historic 1998 design."

I keep boxes of packs from the mid-80's around to open when I need a fix, just because it is fun. I have a box of 1986 Topps sitting about 5 feet away from me as I sit here typing this, just waiting for me to have a bad moment at work that only baseball cards can fix. And isn't that sad? Why don't I have a box of 2013 Topps? Quite simply, because it is expensive and not much fun. My kids have had fun opening packs of mid-80's Topps; I'm not sure that I'll bother with the new stuff.

Kids should be able to go to a ballpark, or to their local store, and spend a reasonable amount of money (maybe the amount it takes to buy a coke in a vending machine) to get a pack of cards. Those cards should be well-designed, with a reasonable hope for the kids of completing a set. They should maybe even have some bubble gum included. If the hobby can't figure out a way to get kids involved, on a mass level, I believe that we will continue to watch a long, slow decline of folks interested in collecting baseball cards. They will get older and greyer (granted with higher disposable incomes) but without the simple joy of a kid opening his first pack of cards. As that happens, I think the card companies will continue to produce cards, but they will increasingly become a specialty thing not available on a regular basis. I remember when almost every grocery, drug, hardware and toy store had boxes of packs available. Made it fun for me (and expensive for mom.) And at the end of the day, isn't that the point?

kevin

[ullmandds]

Those with a vested interest in the hobby are optimistic about it's future...those that are realists and are not heavily vested/invested in the hobby know it's in trouble and the future looks grim.

[ScottFandango]

Those with a vested interest in the hobby are optimistic about it's future...those that are realists and are not heavily vested/invested in the hobby know it's in trouble and the future looks grim.

then why are there more and more Auction Houses Popping up and why are the established AHs setting record realized prices....and don't say because of shill bidding!

the ease of collecting and looking for cards via the internet has made it easier for people to join the hobby, making up for those that pass....

[glynparson]

ever since i started selling in 1990, began collecting at age 7 in 1979. good stuff just keeps getting more expensive. It (the hobby) will always be here but never as hot as the late 1980's early 1990's but its solid.Or the massive price upticks grading brought. For the record I am 41 and know a lot of people my age and younger that are collectors.

[hammer]

Went to the shriners show this weekend and then went to a coin show same weekend. The coin show had more people in 1 isle then the whole total of the card show.

[Stonepony]

Stamp collecting is dead, they've nearly completely lost their value. Go to a stamp show and there is no one there that wasn't there in 1975. I agree coins are very hot and going strong. Sports cards....I'm not sure if future generations will have the same interest in vintage cards outside the Cobbs, Ruths, Mantles etc...we'll see

[Gmrson]

ever since i started selling in 1990, began collecting at age 7 in 1979. good stuff just keeps getting more expensive. It (the hobby) will always be here but never as hot as the late 1980's early 1990's but its solid.Or the massive price upticks grading brought. For the record I am 41 and know a lot of people my age and younger that are collectors.

I actually feel it's "foundation" is more solid than in the early 1990's. What happened then was a lot of non-collectors who got into what was the hype. I worked two LCS from 1983-1990 and saw many jump into the hype more as hoarders than collectors. Much of the throng at the '91 National was not roaming the floors filling holes in their collection but standing in promo lines. As I see it, some of that has morphed into the current "prospectors" and "flippers" who don't really have collections but just casually buy, sell, and hold and often can't really talk sports other than who's hot in cards and might be the next _______ (Strasburg/Trout/Harper/Puig/Abreau). I don't see this as bad for the hobby, just another part of it, and actually good as some will turn into long term collectors. It also seems that many who left when the hobby in the 90's are re-discovering what they enjoyed about then, myself included.

[JimStinson]

In five years (or less) you MIGHT ....be able to trade the best card or autograph collection in the World for a bowl of hot soup a cup of coffee and a loaf of bread
___________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Vintage autographs for sale on my web site
stinsonsports.com

[Stonepony]

In five years (or less) you MIGHT ....be able to trade the best card or autograph collection in the World for a bowl of hot soup a cup of coffee and a loaf of bread
___________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Vintage autographs for sale on my web site
stinsonsports.com

I take it you're not buying:rolleyes:

[barrysloate]

Kids don't really buy baseball cards anymore, and few attend games or play on a regular basis. Baseball as the national sport is dying, and that does not bode well for the future of the hobby.

There will always be people collecting baseball cards, and vintage cards should certainly remain popular. But the collecting community is shrinking, and the rapid growth we witnessed in the 1980's and 90's was a one time phenomenon. We won't ever see that again. The hobby will survive despite it, but it will be smaller. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Many collectors were turned off by the frenetic pace and rapidly escalating prices, and would much prefer a more relaxed environment. It is what it is.

[Hankphenom]

If stamps are still a hobby and hold their value, baseballcards are a long way from a dead hobby.

Love your logo, Brent. My dad was in the Army Air Corps during the war, and I always loved that beautiful and classic logo on his uniforms in the closet. Unfortunately, Mom threw them all out when he died. I wished she had called me.

[ullmandds]

I echo most of what Barry said...the majority of kids aren't playing baseball...they're not watching baseball...they're not into collecting things...also...the blue chip cards...the ruths...the cobbs will continue to be popular...to a point. But more importantly is determining what kind of time line we're talking about here. I envision if I live to be in my 70's-80's...the hobby will be much much smaller than it is now...and while the ruths and cobbs will still command decent coin...the commons will be shit!

[wazoo]

For me, I will never drop this hobby. I love vintage baseball cards and I hope future generations to come do as well. I am 16 now, and will be 17 in less than two months. I've been collecting vintage for 4 years now, it was the best decision I ever made. I just feel that people need to spread the news about vintage. Nobody I know collects vintage, let alone baseball cards themselves. It's a great hobby and I hope to see an increase of collectors.

[vintagetoppsguy]

In my opinion the hobby is already dead, it just hasn't fallen down yet.:(

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

[ScottFandango]

In five years (or less) you MIGHT ....be able to trade the best card or autograph collection in the World for a bowl of hot soup a cup of coffee and a loaf of bread
___________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Vintage autographs for sale on my web site
.com


so you are gonna dump your collection soon?

[honus94566]

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

Local card shows are dead. That doesn't mean the hobby is dead.

Now we have Ebay, big auction houses, little mom-and-pop auction houses, and the B/S/T section.

I do think baseball card collecting in general is losing popularity, and has for quite some time.

But I won't believe the hobby is dead, or anywhere near dying, when all the cards I want cost $1K plus because demand is high.

[Bocabirdman]

^^^This

When I started collecting in the mid 80s, I remember there was a card show at one hotel or another (in Houston) just about every weekend. By the end of the decade, there were so many shows every weekend, you would have to pick which ones you wanted to attend because there was no way you would have time to hit them all. Same thing with shops. During that same time, there were dozens and dozens of card shops in Houston. Only two (that I know of) survived. I think those two factors say a lot about the state of the hobby.

Every day is a card show. The internet killed the "radio star". I'd wager that there are more transactions per day now than ever. What IS lost is the face-to face interaction but the cards are still traveling.:)

[JimStinson]

I take it you're not buying:rolleyes:

I'm buying stronger than I've ever bought (which tells me something) and selling too , but I'm also a realist. When I started collecting NO ONE speculated as to value and future. Ty Cobb checks were $35.00 , Babe Ruth Autographs were $50.00 (if you were lucky) then it grew from there and the "investors" entered the hobby ....I'm an autograph dealer and in the last few years for the first time EVER I have seen some prices come DOWN. Some have gone up yes but overall stable , the question was ...for the future , and since most of the hard core baseball fans that breathed the sport are approaching the autumn of their years (including me) and most new sports fans could care less unless its to buy something and "flip it" for a profit the eventual crash seems inevitable ...combine that with the fact that most American's are struggling to pay their bills .......tells me the first major downturn WHICH WILL happen , we'll see most of the major players invent a new investment strategy.

Or worst case ...if you listen to the news and look at the National debt might force most collectors to trade those precious collectibles for a roof over their heads and a warm place to sleep. Its reality
____________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Selling vintage autographs
stinsonsports.com

[Hankphenom]

In five years (or less) you MIGHT ....be able to trade the best card or autograph collection in the World for a bowl of hot soup a cup of coffee and a loaf of bread
___________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Vintage autographs for sale on my web site
stinsonsports.com

Jesus, Jim, I guess I'd better start watching Doomsday Preppers! There's actually a report practically every day on the state of the hobby, and that's the prices realized in auctions and on eBay. I haven't noticed much softening, even during the economic disruptions of the past several years, but perhaps the generational turnover/bailout everybody's been predicting for the last 15 years is just around the corner. I do remember in the early 80s when there was a lot of talk about the "bubble" in hobby prices, but those who stayed in did very well, indeed. For those who "collect what you like," a downturn would be a welcome respite from the constant inflation of the past and would provide a floor. Under Jim's scenario, however, all bets are off, but then we'd all have much more to worry about than our collections. My advice would be, "steady on the tiller."

[JimStinson]

so you are gonna dump your collection soon?

I sold the majority of my personal collection , which was probably one of the best 19th century and dead ball era autograph collections in the country over 20 years ago
___________________________
jim@stinsonsports.com

Selling vintage autographs
stinsonsports.com

[Jayworld]

Kids don't really buy baseball cards anymore, and few attend games or play on a regular basis. Baseball as the national sport is dying, and that does not bode well for the future of the hobby.

There will always be people collecting baseball cards, and vintage cards should certainly remain popular. But the collecting community is shrinking, and the rapid growth we witnessed in the 1980's and 90's was a one time phenomenon. We won't ever see that again. The hobby will survive despite it, but it will be smaller. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Many collectors were turned off by the frenetic pace and rapidly escalating prices, and would much prefer a more relaxed environment. It is what it is.

I really like this statement by Barry. My two sons could care less about baseball cards, and every time I take them with me to the local card shop (1 of 2 in the Dallas area), I offer to buy them each a pack or so of baseball cards. They always politely refuse and opt for a pack of Pokemon.

I miss the local Dallas shows, such as the ones in Garland and at the Twin 60s hotel in Dallas, and combing through boxes of cards to complete sets. I purchased my first pre-war card at a local show back in 1979. Now, as another poster stated, the internet is the "local card shop" in that you can go to our B/S/T section or eBay and find just about whatever you are looking for to complete your set (my, isn't that a relic term for today's "modern" collectors who don't collect sets but instead collect "best pulls"). I've tried the modern cards on-and-off the past 4-5 years, and mostly they leave me cold. The best of the new for me is the Panini 2013 Cooperstown cards; they are modern, yet depict pre-war and post-war subjects in glorious black-and-white.

I'll stick with my vintage "art" (non-photo) cards, such as the T205s, T206s, T201s, 1933 Goudey, and the 1950-51-52 Bowmans....

[mark evans]

I think the hobby will suffer in the long term due to a combination of general economic conditions and the passing of us baby boomers, who are not being sufficiently replaced by youngsters due to other competing interests.

I think the internet gave the hobby a shot in the arm but its effects are now stabilized.

By the way, this prediction certainly does not serve my interests as I am purely and collector with no intentions of selling.

[Brian Van Horn]

The future of collecting rests with the personality combination of a baseball fan coupled with a curious historian. Without this duality, the collecting future would be in doubt.

[frankbmd]

...... I offer to buy them each a pack or so of baseball cards. They always politely refuse and opt for a pack of Pokemon.
............




Frankly I'm not worried about a 200 year old Cobb card being worth less than a 100 year old Pokemon card.

I'm also not worried about "rock & roll oldies" radio stations being replaced by "rap oldies" stations in 50 years.

Our type of card collecting is more akin to antique collecting than to anything related to Panini or Pokemon.

When there are no more art museums, archaeologists, wine collectors, historians, etc,,,,,,,,,, there will be no more card collectors.

Until then, the hobby may morph as it has in the past, but it will be around, unless of course we run out of money.:eek:

[conor912]

That depends on what you mean by future of the hobby. If you mean future values of cards, then yes, they will go down, but people, including myself, will always collect. And those price drops will not happen over night, just very slowly over time and the older guys pass away or get out. But with all that new supply, it will open up great buying opportunities for younger collectors to get stuff they have always wanted but could never afford, so in a way, I am looking forward to such a dip.

I just set up at a show this past weekend. The average dealer was easily over 50, but many were not. And as far as attendees, there were many in their 30s and 40s, some even with kids who were into it.

[4815162342]

In modern, the speculators who organize and participate in these expensive group box breaks are going to eventually move on to something else to get their gambling fix.

In postwar, the collections put together by baby boomers combined with the glut of altered cards will flood and crash the 50s-70s market.

In prewar, everyone will finally realize that there are more T206 cards in existence than there are stars in the sky, and that market will crash.

The only saving grace of it all will be something quite unexpected. After decades of being mocked, taunted, buried and burned to the ground, the final 1988 Donruss card in existence will sell for one billion dollars.

http://monozygotic.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/psa1.jpg

[William Todd]

They are an asset class, regulated by supply, demand and scarcity. I agree with Barry S. I believe you should enjoy them, but don't expect to make a profit on what you buy. The rare cards can have dramatic increases in value, but things can change. Enjoy them.

[BobC]

Interesting question and thread. However, the OP didn't specify which part of the card collecting hobby he was asking about. I think you can break the hobby up, depending upon the era you're collecting, and get different answers.

There's vintage/pre-war cards, which the people on this forum are primarily into. As many have already said, the shows have died out, card shops are gone, and everything seems to have been replaced by the internet. There will always be collectors for the big names/rare cards and as the economy goes, so will the vintage market ebb and flow. The internet has made vintage collecting much more feasible as a collector can now access items from literally around the world, where before they may have been limited to what showed up at the local card shows and at occasional auctions. The increased access has probably added more collectors to the vintage ranks as finding former elusive items is now a lot easier and can be done from one's home instead of having to go from store-to-store or show-to-show looking for that missing card. Values may be stagnant on most pre-war items for a while but, due to age and the innate human nature of many to be fascinated and want to collect historical/antique items, the pre-war cards will have a somewhat stable market for the forseeable future, with moderate growth overall, in my opinion.

Post-war cards, mostly 50's to the early 80's, is ruled by Topps. This is the era a lot of current collectors grew up in (ie:baby boomers). As expected, as the baby boomers hit the middle/late adult years, they had money and a desire to recapture things from their youth, which included things like baseball cards and comic books. Thus the 80's/90's explosion in the card market was borne, first by the initial wave of collectors looking to find cards from their youth, secondly by the entrepeneurs who recognized the first wave and figured they could make money off of them, and finally, by a third wave of somewhat naive people who saw what happened with the first two waves and thus viewed card collecting as a great investment vehicle/way to turn a quick profit like all the dot.com investors who saw the prosperity of the 90's spilling over into everything else. Well, the baby boomers all have the cards they want, PSA and the registry game could only continue that run so far. Then with the advent of the internet, the search and hunt for such cards was eliminated. If I want a 1968 Topps set I can go on Ebay right now and probably have it within a few minutes. What collecting fun/passion does that generate.....answer is, none. So even the true collectors weren;t as interested in the "hunt" anymore. These cards are still collected but, not in the way they once were. In the future they'll again begin to gain value as they become older and take on more of an antique/historic nature. Problem is, so many of these cards were made/kept that prices will remain fairly low for all but the superstars as supply will surely outstrip demand. In other words, none of us will live long enough to see these cards gaining big value.

The 80's, 90's and 00's card market was borne from greed of the people looking to capitalize on the card market, from the card companies, that vastly overproduced and saturated the market, to the investors/dealers all looking to make a buck. Oh the collectors were still there, just stuck in the middle of all the people looking for those 1000% profits they hoped to get from hoarding all the Jose Canseco rookies they could back in the day. And we all know how that turned out don't we? So then the card companies turned to putting in inserts and numbered cards, followed by autographed cards and finally adding bits of game used material to the cards, all in an attempt to keep the collector's interest and increase their sales and profits. They just kept going and going and overproduced everything to where it is was so watered down that cards couldn't keep their value. Who wanted last year's Derek Jeter autographed card, the collector had to have this year's version, and the card companies made sure to supply as many as the market would bear. Again, one day these cards may have increasing value but, you may have to wait for Buck Rodger's time before that happens.


Finally you get to the current/modern cards of today. There are almost no card shops or shows anymore. The sports themselves have taken a hand in policing the overproduction by card companies in the past by now limiting to whom they grant licensing to. Yet the surviving companies. like Topps and Panini, still thrive by gearing their products more and more to the breakers. These breakers go through Ebay and ultimately their own online venues and break open boxes and cases of newly released products live online for the people who bid/buy a team/division/random spot from them, pay through an online source like paypal, and then instead of opening the pack themselves, watch the breakers open it for them, live and online. The breakers then send the participant whatever cards they won. I work with a guy who just got into breaking with a friend of his this past Spring. They started out doing a night a week and can now easily be doing this three/four nights a week. Just this morning he showed me an order he placed with a distributor for $69,000, yes, $69K, of new product he says they'll go through and sell by breaking in just two or three weeks. And this is part-time a few nights a week for them and they do it out of his friends apartment (ie: no overhead). All you have to do is look at the latest offering from Panini in basketball, called Panini Flawless. The entire production was something like two boxes to a case, and a limited production of only about 450 cases. Now each box, which actually isn't a box but, a full-sized metal briefcase (yes briefcase that alone sells for about $50 I'm told), only holds 10 cards. So 10 cards x 2 boxes per case x 450 cases means the entire production run is only about 9000 cards. But wait, every card is a super insert hit, either with an auto, a jersey/patch, both, or they have an actual diamond or other precious gem embedded on the card. And every card is serial numbered with nothing higher than 20 in existence. Oh, and each box/briefcase was guaranteed to contain at least a Kobe/Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant card in it. When this came out, my friend bought a couple cases at $2,350 a case. That is right, $2,350 a case (20 cards total). That was about a week and a half ago. On the dealer net out there my friend said he's seen a case now up to $4K+ and I believe he mentioned someone actually had a case on Ebay for around $5,200. My friend tells me that customers of his buy chances to get a card from products like these and hope for the huge hits. Apparently there have been single cards from this Flawless set that have been sold, not just listed but sold, on Ebay in the past week for $30,000. That is where the hobby is currently going. It is in the hands of the breakers who want high-end, huge cards that fuel collectors who are really just looking at this as another form of legalized gambling, hoping to get that huge card they can then turn around and flip on Ebay. And there are apparently plenty of current collectors who will pay big bucks for those manufactured rarities.

Meanwhile, a few weeks ago I won a 1922 Herpolsheimer's - John McGraw card in a PSA 5 holder off Ebay for a little over $200. Per the SCD catalog, there is only one single card of each player known to exist in that set. So I got a HOFer, almost 100 year's old, a true 1-of-1 card for that price, while someone else will pay $30K for a 1-of-1 Kyrie Irving card produced today. And then that same card company will issue another product next week with another 1-of-1 Kyrie Irving card in it, and then the week after that, and the week after that, and so on.....ad nauseum! There's the true state of the current collector hobby, as fostered and nurtured by the card companies still in business.


Bob C

[pcoz]

I think it will only go up. None of us have seen Babe Ruth play, yet the money that chases his cards has reached stratospheric levels. My issue is the auction houses have too many auctions and too much good product at once, which dilutes prices. Great for the collector, not so much for the seller. Regardless, there is PLENTY of money that's come into the hobby these past few years in a horrible economy. Can't imagine the future being anything but bright with a finite amount of vintage rarities in circulation.

[barrysloate]

From what I hear, Topps and Bowman sets from the late 40's to the 1960's are soft, and I find that very upsetting. I know the baby boomers who first collected them have gotten older, but those are some of the most beautiful and classic sets ever made. Why isn't the next generation interested in them?

[William Todd]

The next generation is buying housing and food, etc.

[barrysloate]

The next generation is buying housing and food, etc.

True, but while T206's are collected by everybody and his uncle, I can't figure out why 1949 Bowman, or 1953 Bowman, or 1957 Topps are no longer garnering much attention. With T206 so overpriced, why aren't collectors looking elsewhere?

[deucetwins]

Great summary Bob. I would like to add a thought previously danced around by Barry. Look at all of the HOFers that Baby Boomers had to collect during their youth. Names that are uttered in reverence and awe. Now look at the HOFers or future HOFers of the modern era. Not very many with the same type of or better stats than those of yesteryear. Except for the hobby darlings (Ripken, Ryan, and Jeter) no other recent or future HOFer has the same luster. Who would you rather collect? Koufax or Blyleven? Aside from the business part of the hobby (shops, shows, card manufacturers, investors, etc.), I agree that baseball has faded somewhat as the national pastime and has been overtaken by football (thanks Pete Rozelle for the TV contract). I just don't believe that football cards or any other sport will ever be as popular as baseball cards simply because the foundation isn't strong enough. I'm 40, sober, and collect cards.

By the way, Daryl that is the best 88 Donruss card I've ever seen. I hope you have it in your set registry.

[JoeyF1981]

Being in my 30's I see alot of younger people fixated on the newer cards. The industry is flooded with these so-called 1/1's that people are paying thousands for. Most of these cards are players who arent even hof'ers but because they have a few good games people go crazy. Its hard to get younger people into vintage because they dont have a personal connection with the players. They never watched them play or took the time out to find out more about them. The industry in my opinion is going to continue to grow and the newer generation will still be collecting but primarily modern cards. Me personally I love vintage even if I never saw that specific person play. its the history and knowledge of knowing that that particular player helped pave the way for newer generations. The hobby of collecting will always be there and prices will remain ridiculous.

[campyfan39]

How did you get into vintage so young?

For me, I will never drop this hobby. I love vintage baseball cards and I hope future generations to come do as well. I am 16 now, and will be 17 in less than two months. I've been collecting vintage for 4 years now, it was the best decision I ever made. I just feel that people need to spread the news about vintage. Nobody I know collects vintage, let alone baseball cards themselves. It's a great hobby and I hope to see an increase of collectors.

[wazoo]

I did a random Ebay search. I had always bought modern cards from eBay, but never anything vintage. I hadn't even known they existed to be honest. Then one day, I don't even know why, the idea of "t206 Wagner" popped into my mind after I read an article about him, and I just searched t206 on eBay. From there, I bought my first t206, Fred Parent, raw, for $30. I had it graded and it came back as a four, along with a few other raw cards I purchased within my first few months of t206 collecting. I became hooked with the set and it's been like that for years after. I'm at about 100 t206 cards now, and I love the set. The colors, misprints, stories, variations, etc. I've educated myself about the set, and overall, it's been an amazing experience. I just got back from a Shriner's show in Wilmington, MA, and added a few more to my set.

[JoeyF1981]

How did you get into vintage so young?

When I started collecting cards in the late 80's early 90's I used to always buy the new beckett every month and I remember seeing hank aaron's rc for the first time. I wanted to own one so bad. It was the look of the card and knowing how old it was that made me want it. I would go into this local card shop I always went to and talk to the owner about vintage players and it got me really interested. Also watching the movie "when it was a game" had me hooked. I was fascinated with the history and the way people used to live back then. It was a totally different feel and culture than today. I always wanted to own a mantle or aaron when I got older, but as I got more into the hobby I learned about tons of other players I had never heard of and I was hooked.

[MuddyMules]

I have had a passion for cards for a very long time and have shared this with my kids. I have two teenage boys and we collect cards together. This is one hobby that keeps my boys involved with me, even as an old embarrassing dad. Yes, my kids are xbox playing, iphone texting, facebook, instagram, tweeting kids like most youth of today. If you want our youth involved in vintage collecting, my advise is this for the future of our hobby: Take them to Cooperstown and spend the weekend visiting the HOF and the memorabilia shops. We did this last summer and had the best time of our lives. Stay at the KOA campground north of town, turn off the TV and video games, by a box or two of cards (regardless of the years), open the packs, enjoy going through the cards, build a fire, cook a hot dog, go to sleep and repeat it all the next day. The future is our kids, teach them what we know.

[pcoz]

Just to add a few other points relating to how card shops have shrunk and people in the future interested in the hobby shrinking I'd say this.... everything in life changes and evolves all the time. Like the stock exchanges not having floor brokers anymore with things being done electronically, we don't have card shops but have auction houses and the internet to quickly interact and see/buy/sell cards. There are 87 million "Millenials" coming out of college in 2-3 yrs, bigger than the baby boomer population, that will pump money into various areas of the economy. I can't imagine with the increasing prices in the vintage card market, and baseball at least in the area I live still quite popular, people in the future not being interested and driving this market for many years to come. We all have a right to our opinions, but I think its like saying the stock market won't continue to grow in the future which is silly. Just enjoy the ride, evolution, and look forward to the future.

[JollyElm]

To me it's simple. Back in my day we flipped cards night and day, constantly traded with our friends to get our favorite players and teams, we'd carry a bunch of cards in our pockets wherever we went and then we'd stick them in our bicycle spokes to get that cool whirring sound. Condition meant nothing.

Today? Kids open a new pack in a baseball card shop and handle each card very gingerly and immediately slide them into plastic sheets or holders. No wear, no tear, no baseball talk. The only thing said is, "How much is this one worth?"

[npa589]

http://monozygotic.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/psa1.jpg

To me, this is still the single greatest picture I've ever seen. It works on oh so many levels!

[JasonL]

It's so obvious that we are all correct and horribly wrong about all of this at the same time. :)
I believe we are correct when we state that the hobby will survive. It's relative health will ebb and flow over the years, and it is large enough with a diverse enough demographic among the collector base to experience strength and weakness in various sub-areas over time.
I believe we are wrong when those among us simply compare today's activity at shows or price action to what I call the roaring 80s. That is like using the Tech bubble as a reference for the demise of the entire stock market. There will be areas of the market that could crash and not recover, but other areas will pick up and run.
Such a huge topic.
Nobody panic.
We will all be fine.
and if we're not, well then as some point out, there will be other more important things to worry about! :)

[mintacular]

Big star HOFers, classic/iconic cards especially higher grade will maintain value, all others will slowly decide/soften over the years and 25+ years from will slip even further...

Modern card market will spike and dive within year of production otherwise nosedive, not a worthwhile buy unless you can quick flip them....

JMO, nobody really knows but as stated the current generation (in general) could care less about collecting and therefore "future" not looking good in the Mid 21st century especially as paper goods fall to the wayside, not to mention technological advances could replicate vintage goods

[ullmandds]

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

[OFF CENTER TRADING]

From what I hear, Topps and Bowman sets from the late 40's to the 1960's are soft, and I find that very upsetting. I know the baby boomers who first collected them have gotten older, but those are some of the most beautiful and classic sets ever made. Why isn't the next generation interested in them?

The next generation IS interested in them. You just don't know it or have failed to recognize it. You may not necessarily see us at card shows, but that doesn't mean that we're not out there buying vintage cards and lurking on the message boards.

RLR

[ullmandds]

Ok...thats 2!

[pepis]

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

Oh yes many opinions! but only one fact!
as long as there is SPORTS in this country this hobby will NEVER die
it will go through picks and valleys but nostalgic americans will never let it die!!

[chaddurbin]

Oh yes many opinions! but only one fact!
as long as there is SPORTS in this country this hobby will NEVER die
it will go through picks and valleys but nostalgic americans will never let it die!!

but...baseball IS dying. it's turning into a regional sport, fans instantly stop watching when their team is knocked out. a jax/tampa bay nfl preseason game would give the world series a run for ratings.

alot of people is full of crap when they say "i wish the prices go back to 1970s level so i can buy more of what i want..." but i'm practically giddy thinking about that day!

[the 'stache]

True, but while T206's are collected by everybody and his uncle, I can't figure out why 1949 Bowman, or 1953 Bowman, or 1957 Topps are no longer garnering much attention. With T206 so overpriced, why aren't collectors looking elsewhere?

It's funny you mention those sets, as the '53 Bowman Color and 1957 Topps are two of the sets I will be collecting most.

When I see a '53 Bowman Color Stan Musial, Mickey Mantle or Pee wee Reese, or a 1957 Topps Hank Aaron, or Willie Mays, my heart skips a beat.

[the 'stache]

but...baseball IS dying.

I respectfully disagree.

Does the game completely captivate the nation's attention the way it did in the 50s and 60s? Nope. Back in the 50s and 60s, homes that had a television only had three channels. Fast forward to 2013, and everybody has a tablet, a laptop, a smart phone or a portable gaming system. Homes with 3 channels, or a radio, have been replaced by satellite television, or FIOS with HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, the Movie Channel, Starz, etc...200 hundred channels. There are more choices.

But this whole notion that baseball is dying is hogwash. Major League Baseball had the sixth highest attendance in history at 74,026,895. And young people? Maybe less kids play the game. But they are there. We have several family friends with kids, and a lot of them are playing baseball.

As far as the hobby goes, eventually, card companies like Topps will be forced to change their way of doing business, or they will go the way of the dodo bird. When forced to confront their own mortality, so to speak, they will make changes. They will realize that in order to survive, they need to attract new hobbyists.

I hope that the next MLB Commissioner make the changes necessary to attract more younger viewers. The game is great, and has so much to offer.

[chaddurbin]

live attendance is a totall different animal. the nhl has seen an uptick in live attendance overall the past few seasons, doesn't mean the sport is "growing". with many mlb teams trying to monopolize their brand and creating their own channel/regional network where consumers have to pay, that means even less exposure in some area or homes that don't have cable and unwilling to pay. luckily mlb was smart with their online presence, i think they were the first to capitalize on the digital content and is a big part of their revenue now.

[glynparson]

1. I see the hobby as trading card collecting, much like Burdick, not just baseball card collecting and many have pointed to the kids growing interest in non sport products like Magic and Pokemon. This can easily lead to vintage non sport collectors who may also turn to some sports cards. I also see a lot of kids buying football cards.

2. The market is global now not just the US, couple that with our own rising Latino population. A culture were baseball is certainly still revered. As they gain a stronger economic foothold in our society and gain more disposable income I could see some values rising, particularly on some Latino legends such as Clemente.

Like I said in a previous post I have been hearing the hobby was dying since I started selling cards. There will be a trading card hobby full of many collectors for at least all of our lifetimes.

[barrysloate]

The next generation IS interested in them. You just don't know it or have failed to recognize it. You may not necessarily see us at card shows, but that doesn't mean that we're not out there buying vintage cards and lurking on the message boards.

RLR

Glad to hear there may still be hope for the sets from the 50's. I think they are some of the best baseball collectibles out there.

[larrie804]

Yes, I am an old man (collector/dealer)! I am positive about the hobby's future...however, it is, IMO changing! First, I disagree with the broad statement that it is just a group of old men! A study on the board shows the average age of Net54 members to be in their early 40s...I do not consider 40 to be old! Secondly, as a dealer who does medium size regional shows (Chantilly, Raleigh, Greensboro, etc. I see more young folks now than 10 years ago!

I do see collecting interests changing! The biggest changes are two....those willing to pay stupid money for autos acquired in person at shows (Chantilly and the National) is increasing and the second (I like to think positive movement) is the increase in the past 5 years in vintage cards. My definition of vintage here is pre-1970!

[markf31]

it IS interesting how opinions are quite contrasting!!!! Only the shadow knows!

It has been a very interesting thread to read so far. I think the hobby will be fine personally. I don't believe that you can point to the decline in the number of brick-n-mortar stores or card shows as an indicator that the hobby is slipping, fading away or will go away anytime soon, it simply means the methods and means of propagating the hobby have changed.

I would be willing to bet that more hobby transactions are made on a daily basis now than ever before! How many AH auctions close each month? How many Ebay auctions/listings end each month? All of these transactions have filled the hole created by the decline in the number of card shows and brick-n-mortar stores.

[ullmandds]

larry...the fact that you say more and more people are paying crazy prices for autographs is insane to me. the show coming up in MN next weekend...some of the signers are charging crazy prices...to the extent that if you pay Bo JAckson over $100 for a sig...you've lost money as soon as you walk out the door...I don't get it!

Where's the satisfaction in paying someone to grumpily sign your shit...to me an autograph was always about the experience and the lucky/chance occasion you happened to meet/run into that person and had the luck to snare their autograph...it was more about the experience.

Times change!

[frankbmd]

.............if you pay bo jackson over $100 for a sig.......you've lost money as soon as you walk out the door.............

Bo Knows ...... Ben?


http://www.collectorfocus.com/images/show/frankbmd/junk/13850/ben-franklin

[jlehma13]

Big star HOFers, classic/iconic cards especially higher grade will maintain value, all others will slowly decide/soften over the years and 25+ years from will slip even further...



I would venture a guess there will continue to be a market for the low grade vintage cards as well. I wouldn't have gotten into collecting cards again had there not been an affordable way to do it.

Also, I cannot quote the latest age poll that was taken here however, the number of members in their 30's (myself included) I believe was fairly high. That's a good sign for now. Where the next generation's interest lies in the hobby, I don't know. Keep it to collecting and friendly interactions and the hobby may have the chance to grow.

[campyfan39]

Thanks everyone for the responses!

[Tanman7baseball]

I read through the seven pages and needless to say I'm disappointed in the older collectors/dealers on this thread. Baseball is dying? That is one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard. I've played baseball my whole life up until last year and I've never seen so much interest in this sport by people my age today. The game is becoming exciting. It's becoming international. I respect the game and love the history, but back then baseball was a national pastime because there was nothing else to do or watch... It might not be a national pastime now but still has a more than strong following. The old-timer era of baseball is going away. Today baseball players have what you call "swag". The showmanship and cockiness that the stars today are what kids emulate tomorrow. The game is evolving to appeal to the average short attention spanned American. Anyways, I do not wish to go on but hearing that baseball is dying just seemed to me to be a very skewed view...

Back to the O/T. The reason why you don't see kids and early to mid-twenty year olds is because they can't afford to be in this hobby. Even if they could buy the $5-10 modern packs, I feel they have this view instilled in their brain that if this pack doesn't have a relic/auto these cards are worthless. Therefore, if I can't buy the whole box which is guaranteed a hit then why waste my money on a pack that's not guaranteed a hit. Also, there's just too many options for the average kid. I want to buy vintage cards but most of the time I have to just sit and wish. I started collecting when I was 10 years old back in 2002. My grandfather got me into the hobby and fueled my future addiction to the hobby. I only bought modern cards because I didn't know any of the post-war or pre-war players. I started buying SP Legendary Cuts because I wanted that cut-auto of Mickey Mantle. I found myself intrigued by the players on the cards, but knew none of their names. I read Beckett religiously back then and was curious to why this player was "worth" more than this player. That's where I began my journey searching their stats and records. Soon I found out why Tris Speaker was worth more than Rogers Hornsby and so on. The history was fascinating. Unfortunately, my grandfather passed away of cancer in 2004. Collecting cards was too expensive for me so I stopped. The only thing I could afford was a Beckett subscription... Now that I'm older and have money, I'm back collecting in full force but this time only vintage.

Sadly, I must admit I personally know only a few collectors my age... I know hundreds of people who love baseball but only a few of which who know John McGraw or even Carl Yastrzemski. My point is that to collect vintage cards and not get caught up in the gambling game of modern cards, there has to be a connection to the history. I don't think 50-60s cards are going to rise in value. Really I don't see any common cards of most sets pre-1970 going up in value. As more years pass today's semi-stars won't even be sought after. I do truly believe the true heroes, legends, and superstars will continue to rise as long as the game of baseball continues. There are just too many post-war/pre-war cards being hoarded by baby-boomers right now. Card prices are high because you have all the old guys wanting to buy their dream cards for their bucket list. I'd love to see a percentage of cards bought over $1000 by collectors over the age of 40. Unfortunately, when they pass the market will be more than flooded. Prices will drop. Panic from the few left will fill the forums. Luckily, I will be there to embrace this flood. There is light on the other side of the tunnel.

[t206trader]

Tanman makes some good points. As someone who is 26 and only recently (within the last five years) got into the vintage hobby it is definitely an older persons game. I've done modern cards since I was about 18 and even modern cards are priced out of most kids range today. Why get a pack of cards that costs five or six bucks and has about a 1:10 chance of something noteworthy when you could spend your money on the countless other toys/games available today? Kids don't sit around and trade cards anymore. Realistically, someone should only considering entering vintage cards if their income is significant. Tons of other collectibles are in the same "state" as cards. Ever seen the amounts of old guys at a coin show? How about the surge of older guys buying up "rare and valuable" beanies during the beanie baby crash? The fact is that while children are great to see in the hobby, they simply can't afford anything significant with a $5 a week allowance...

[Republicaninmass]

the nhl has seen an uptick in live attendance overall the past few seasons, doesn't mean the sport is "growing".

I disagree, I think Hockey is growing, at least in cold states

[bn2cardz]

I am the father of 3 young children (3, 23months, 10months) and the two older ones like watching baseball and looking through my cards. The problem is that they don't get the chance to see MLB games because it isn't carried by non cable channels on week nights until the World Series. It comes on during weekends, but they are typically napping during weekend games and I am too busy to sit down and watch anyways. I might catch one here and there but not every weekend.

I am not going to buy a cable package just to watch baseball. I can do MLB online, but then I won't get to watch the Cardinals because it will be blacked out. So MLB has made it hard for people like my family to remain fans. I think the main thing that has helped is that the Cardinals have been in two World Series since my oldest was born so she has listened/watched those games. Also the All-Star game is still on non cable tv. As far as "baseball" (as far as the kids are concerned) they are fans because I play softball, and we have a local team that is in the Frontier League so we go to those games.

It is too early to say if the kids will keep enjoying the hobby, but unless they have more of a chance to watch MLB games without having to go to friend's houses then I don't see them growing up to be fans (at least not the way I was as a child).

[BigJJ]

I believe the question presented is the future of cards, and not memorabilia as well.

I believe the future of cards, is old cards, and not new cards.

Cards were the internet.

They were a way for kids to see images of their favorite players, and to know the players' statistics and awards, at any moment desired. Today this is accomplished by the internet. In my opinion, cards are an outdated 'technology'.

I actually think stamps and coins are comparable in this regard.

It appears that the peak of - new - baseball card collecting - from packs - and by young kids (not adults gambling) - was 1950-1995. These are the primary collectors today, purchasing what was wanted in youth and/or after.

The current generation is not card crazy the way we were. Those who have younger children may agree. None of my son's little friends or friends' children collect cards as we did. Cards aren't needed for a picture, or stats - and the kids have videos of the players on-hand, and the latest stats. The stats on cards are outdated shortly after printing.

Once this young generation ages, I do not think it is likely they will have as much of a connection to cards, as they did not use them in youth.

Cards connect us to another time, and not only to baseball being played, but really to the candy store of 1955, 1965, 1975, or 1985. They connect us to our grandfathers, to our dads. Cards transcend cards, cards transcend baseball to us. They connect us to another time, to our families, to our youth. This is where much of the value, financial and non-financial comes from.

In my opinion, the value of older cards, that are an example of period-needed technology, pre-1970, will always be a store of value though I am not certain the values will rise, even as population increases, but they will be a store of some value. Cards created after they were 'needed', I think have a tougher future.

With regard to memorabilia, I think pre war and also post war game used equipment sells for peanuts. How a top early game used Ty Cobb bat can be 50-100k, or a game used Ty Cobb jersey is 500,000k, or a Mickey Mantle game used bat is 15k, or a Jackie Robinson jersey is 300k, is crazy to me. They should be 5 times the price. Compare the prices with post-1900 art, or cars, these pieces should be much more.

Autographs, more are signed every day, both of the alive and the dead, tough market going forward. What happens when there are more Babe Ruth signatures than minutes he was alive?

Game used is interesting though. Even if they put Jeter in a new jersey every night, they -likely- won't have him in a new jersey every inning. But even if they did, there is a limit. And with game used there is a connection - to the actual player - playing the game - which everyone can relate to - all generations - forever.

[sforaker]

I agree with Jon. Pre-1970 or 1980 cards will be a store of value, with cards of the iconic Hall of Famers having the best chance for appreciation (though appreciation among this subset is still uncertain given that newer generations will not have grown up collecting cards). I also agree with Jon that vintage game used material of iconic Hall of Famers, particularly that with strong provenance, is undervalued and has the best opportunity for future appreciation. These items are pieces of history, that bring you as close to the game as possible, are of very limited supply and with likely high continued demand (including among those that love baseball but may not have collected cards). Some items are also one of a kind. I collect both cards and game used but have become much more interested in game used given the uniqueness and historical nature of some of this material.