Are the high prices of T206 scarcer backs coming down?

[CMIZ5290]

Might just be me, but it does appear this crazy whirlwind is slowing...Would love thoughts and opinions....

[Big Ben]

I haven't kept track of the prices, but it is bound to happen sooner or later.

[bbcard1]

I had a pair sell in a good auction at under $1000 that I thought would push $2000 recently.

[Sean1125]

There's only one person who pays out the nose anyway....

[CMIZ5290]

I just bought a Schlei (Port.), fairly tough common in nice grade, in a 6 with a Sovereign 460 back for only $256.00 on ebay...auction just ended. I think alot of people are either going to be extremely happy, or very disappointed when this all plays out. Major auction houses are the winners....

[ullmandds]

Its inevitable! What goes up...

[Cardboard Junkie]

Question....What goes up but doesn't come down?
Answer......Age!:)

I think the frenzy has slowed except for the ultra rare.

[TUM301]

Question....What goes up but doesn't come down?
Answer......Age!:)

I think the frenzy has slowed except for the ultra rare.

my waist line, "man I gotta get in shape" !

[MVSNYC]

I just bought a Schlei (Port.), fairly tough common in nice grade, in a 6 with a Sovereign 460 back for only $256.00 on ebay...auction just ended. I think alot of people are either going to be extremely happy, or very disappointed when this all plays out. Major auction houses are the winners....

Kevin- that's not that 'rare' of a back. 25% premium sounds about right.

Prices are all over the place...just tried finding your card (no luck), but found these: PSA 6 Schlei (Old Mill) sold for $595, and a PSA 5 Schlei Tolstoi sold for $315...those are very healthy prices.

[atx840]

BL460, Drum, UZIT & Lenox I think will continue to hold their value.

Last year 55 new red Hindus showed up to auction and prices were strong on most of them. Blanks are out there but super tough to find with the front/player you want....wish they would drop :)

[bbsports]

Backs such as Polar Bear, Old Mill, EPDG, Cycle 350, AB 350 frame/no frame, Sovereign 150/350, & Tolstoi were never confirmed as tough backs. They have hyped up over the last few years. Now there coming down to Earth. However, if you find one of these backs as the highest graded player, common or HOFer, they are still getting good prices. Your rare backs such as Broadleaf 350/460, Lenox black/brown, Uzit, red/brown Hindu, & Carolina Brights will continue to get strong prices, especially if a player has a low pop number, or if it's the highest graded, or the only player that is graded by a recommendable grading company. Sovereign 460 & Cycle 460, are tougher backs & in low pop numbers should continue to do well. Piedmont 42 backs are unpredictable because you can't determine its pop numbers, but it's a back on the rise, because collectors are finding out that there are a less out there than originally thought. T206 cards from uncut sheets such as blank backs, brown Old Mill, & ink missing ink card scrap haven't lost any steam & are in strong demand.

[MVSNYC]

Backs such as Polar Bear, Old Mill, EPDG, Cycle 350, AB 350 frame/no frame, Sovereign 150/350, & Tolstoi were never confirmed as tough backs. They have hyped up over the last few years. Now there coming down to Earth. However, if you find one of these backs as the highest graded player, common or HOFer, they are still getting good prices. Your rare backs such as Broadleaf 350/460, Lenox black/brown, Uzit, red/brown Hindu, & Carolina Brights will continue to get strong prices, especially if a player has a low pop number, or if it's the highest graded, or the only player that is graded by a recommendable grading company. Sovereign 460 & Cycle 460, are tougher backs & in low pop numbers should continue to do well. Piedmont 42 backs are unpredictable because you can't determine its pop numbers, but it's a back on the rise, because collectors are finding out that there are a less out there than originally thought. T206 cards from uncut sheets such as blank backs, brown Old Mill, & ink missing ink card scrap haven't lost any steam & are in strong demand.

Bill- you forgot Drum. ;)

[bbsports]

Your right, you can't ignore the scarcity of a Drum back. Sorry about that.

[insccollectibles]

I think part of the recent problem is the influx of great cards since the prices went up. It seems like alot of people or now dumping their collection in hope to make some profit. Once this trend slows a little which I hope will happen soon the prices will stabilize for a bit and go back up. The problem now is the volume of cards being dumped due to the recent higher prices in my opinion.

[thehoodedcoder]

I think part of the recent problem is the influx of great cards since the prices went up. It seems like alot of people or now dumping their collection in hope to make some profit. Once this trend slows a little which I hope will happen soon the prices will stabilize for a bit and go back up. The problem now is the volume of cards being dumped due to the recent higher prices in my opinion.

That is generally 1 of the ways it works. The only other way is if the demand goes down. The price of the cards may be pricing people out of the market even though there is desire to purchase.

Price is where the demand function and tangent touch. Remember the whole calculus and algebra thing? As price changes, the "rate" of demand increases and decreases and has direct affect on rate of goods being sold at price X.

I believe if you have an average house hold income of 100k a year and lead a typical life with one or two kids you are not dropping a few Hondo on some Hindu every week at this point in time. The economy is all jacked up and crooked. Its chaos...dogs sleeping with cats. At least in the Nj area.

The mob...I mean government...takes everything you make from January until June. You get to by bread with your pittens after that.

Kevin

[insccollectibles]

I agree the demand will go down based on the over supply from people dumping their collections. It's simple you may be able to afford one $400 dollar card but not 3 or 4 in the same auction. A couple may go for less because simply collectors can't afford to drop so much at one time and the card doesn't get bid up.
That is generally 1 of the ways it works. The only other way is if the demand goes down. The price of the cards may be pricing people out of the market even though there is desire to purchase.

Price is where the demand function and tangent touch. Remember the whole calculus and algebra thing? As price changes, the "rate" of demand increases and decreases and has direct affect on rate of goods being sold at price X.

I believe if you have an average house hold income of 100k a year and lead a typical life with one or two kids you are not dropping a few Hondo on some Hindu every week at this point in time. The economy is all jacked up and crooked. Its chaos...dogs sleeping with cats. At least in the Nj area.

The mob...I mean government...takes everything you make from January until June. You get to by bread with your pittens after that.

Kevin

[ullmandds]

It's amazing to me...the seemingly constant flow of T206 into the hobby...it's never ending! There must ba a gazillion of them!!!!!

[smtjoy]

IMO, I think a few well funded collectors decided to work on T206 master sets and bid up all backs they needed. This caused a flood of collectors to sell to get a piece of the action.

As their needs on the master set have gone down to the rarest, it has left a large supply of mid range tough player/back combos with high established prices and no buyers at those levels, setup for a downward price correction. The rarest and/or highest condition will still get great prices and bidding wars.

Reminds me of when the whales were biding up the graded exhibit market a few years ago, prices went crazy for a while, they got the cards they wanted and then there was a downward price correction and the market settled a bit above where it was before it all started.

[mrvster]

There are so many variables to consider, it's hard to "pinpoint" certain trends in T206....BB1 summed it up pretty well, and so did a few other collectors....

The Wagner , lets face it, truly drives this popular set, not to mention the beauty and all the other aspects of this "perfect storm" set....

let's leave those factors out....correlation, regression analysis, supply and demand curves, area under the distribution......RUBBISH>>>>:D
WE CAN DO THAT ALL DAY LONG....

the set , inmho, will only gain momentum over the years....the set will always trend up given the attributes of the monster....

as long as popularity remains constant/increases....

which, is definitely the case...


some "rarer" backs will adjust slightly in the short term, but I see all backs trending up in the future...


ITS A SICK SET...

printer's scraps, the blank back, true freaks will be the "chase" cards of the future yester-year....kinda of bitter sweet for me, as I am watching my beloved cards fall well outta reach.....:(

[CMIZ5290]

Kevin- that's not that 'rare' of a back. 25% premium sounds about right.

Prices are all over the place...just tried finding your card (no luck), but found these: PSA 6 Schlei (Old Mill) sold for $595, and a PSA 5 Schlei Tolstoi sold for $315...those are very healthy prices.

Michael- I hear you and you are probably right. Having said that, I have many Sov 460's in my collection that I paid alot higher premium than 25%. You know alot more about such things than me. Also, I never really said rare backs, but "scarcer backs". I am trying to complete a subset of Sov 460's, so any help would be appreciated....:)

[Bridwell]

Kevin, you got a great buy on a Sov 460 at only a 25% premium. Congrats!

Rare T206 backs in a 6 or higher are really scarce.

[MVSNYC]

Rare & Scarce...

Kevin- what's your definition of each?

[CMIZ5290]

Rare & Scarce...

Kevin- what's your definition of each?

Look on Ebay and see how many Sovereign 460's, Cycles, EPDG's, Tolstoi's etc.. are listed among all of the T206s, that would be scarce. Now take a look at how many Carolina Brights, Red hindu's, Broadleafs, Pied 42's, etc.. are listed among all cards, that would be rare...

[MVSNYC]

We've had the rare vs. scarce discussion here many times. always interesting how people define each, often confusing the two.

Regardless of the wording, now i am clear on the ones which you are focusing on here.

[Leon]

We've had the rare vs. scarce discussion here many times. always interesting how people define each, often confusing the two.

Regardless of the wording, now i am clear on the ones which you are focusing on here.

It seems to most people the term "rare" describes a population and "scarce" takes into account the demand side too. I have a ton of rare cards but they aren't really scarce because almost no one wants them :). On the other hand I have some cards that aren't rare, but are scarce, because collectors hoard them. For example, forget the back of this card and say it's a more common one, it wouldn't really be a rare card (in pre war terms) but is scarce because it's the most collected one from the set. If a collector was going to only have 1 from D304, this might be it. Therefore, while it's not really rare, it's scarce. This is only an opinion and others will see it differently.

[caramelcard]

Leon,

That card is rare, scarce, rarce, scare...whatever you want to call it.

Rob

[T206Collector]

Third listed synonym for "scarce" is "rare":

http://thesaurus.com/browse/scarce

Efforts to define them differently are lost on me.

[MVSNYC]

Found this article, it relates to stamps...but relevant, IMO.

http://www.virtualstampclub.com/hotchner_15.html

Scarce: Deficient in quantity or number compared with the demand.

Rare: Seldom occurring or found.

[mrvster]

great article!! Leon, great points....and the rest...btw Kevin...I to am embarked on the sov 460 (35 of 52) ;)

Prices for T206 will increase as demand increases.....Collectors are starting with this set....it will always be popular.....a lot of cards will become "scarce", altho not "rare"......the demand will be there....the true rarities are the unique ones:D

[4815162342]

Found this article, it relates to stamps...but relevant, IMO.

http://www.virtualstampclub.com/hotchner_15.html

Scarce: Deficient in quantity or number compared with the demand.

Rare: Seldom occurring or found.

Thanks for posting that article. I especially liked this:

"... the real joy is when I can make a fellow collector drool over some item that they wish they could own, but can't buy because the few copies known are nowhere available at any price. ..."

I've heard that there's only one other of these in existence. But, only a true collector can appreciate it.
http://caimages.collectors.com/psaimages/9009/8960975/mello_mint_wrapper.jpg

[mrvster]

wow!! now that's a "rarity"

[the 'stache]

I do think they are coming down. Why, I recall a rare brown Old Mill back selling recently for $50 on Ebay. ;)

[Bridwell]

In using both words, rare and scarce, I was awkwardly attempting to say that graded cards in EX-MT or better are becoming hard to find at a decent price. Especially if a tougher T206 back is involved. The combination of high grade and fairly tough back seems like a good thing to acquire from an investment point of view. Although a Sov 460 isn't hard to find and an SGC 80 card isn't hard to find, the combination of the two is hard to find, and hard to acquire at a reasonable price. It seems likely to me that registry set collectors doing master sets will drive up prices. If the 'whales' want them, prices can escalate very quickly.

[cfc1909]

the Sovereign 460 is just like some other mid level tough backs in the t206 set.

If you are looking for an example for your set its not difficult at all. If you are looking to complete the subset of Sovereign 460 you are going to run into difficulty.

There are Sov. 460s that were printed in much greater numbers than other Sov 460s and as you work on this subset it will be pretty easy to figure out the tougher ones.

The Sov 460 subset can be completed it will just take some time.