How many card shops have become just like this......

[tcdyess]

if they are still around at all....

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/01/sports/baseball/fewer-are-investing-hearts-and-money-into-collecting-baseball-cards.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[queencitysportscards]

I think there are a lot of factors on what defines a successful card shop. Yes, there are certainly less of them today then 5-10 years ago and the business has changed with online sales with less retail sales, but there are still plenty of thriving card shops.

I opened my shop recently and quite frankly, am really surprised at the traffic we are already getting. As of late, it's been really busy. People like the local card shop for many reasons, but also the human aspect of it...to interact with other collectors to talk about sports / collecting, selling and trading cards and just shooting the stuff. Its a nice place to get away for awhile. That's where the online market misses the mark...the stories, friendships & memories you establish at the "old card shop."

For us, it's our business and we are focusing on upcoming auctions and online sales, however, we opened to provide a nice place for collectors young and old to talk about the hobby and to build relationships with other collectors just like us...that's what makes it fun...and if you keep up with the hobby enough and adapt, you can make it a successful business too.

Happy Collecting!

[glenv]

Interesting quote about the National only being ~15% baseball cards. Wonder what percentage is vintage cards?

"At the annual National Sports Collectors Convention, which begins July 31 in Chicago, the inventory devoted to baseball cards will fall to about 15 percent from more than half in the late 1990s, according to Mike Berkus, the convention’s founder and executive director."

[tcdyess]

I wondered about that myself, 15%.... wow... I wonder how much Magic stuff will be there....

[kmac32]

Interesting quote about the National only being ~15% baseball cards. Wonder what percentage is vintage cards?

"At the annual National Sports Collectors Convention, which begins July 31 in Chicago, the inventory devoted to baseball cards will fall to about 15 percent from more than half in the late 1990s, according to Mike Berkus, the convention’s founder and executive director."

It's been maybe 6 years since my last national but I find it hard to believe that baseball cards only comprise 15% of the show.

[bbcard1]

Not to sound unsympathetic, but you can take a quick glance and see what the problem is. She is displaying sheets of Tom Glavine and Dave Justice rookies. Many of the dinosaur shop owners have never gotten over the fact you can no longer sell Tommy Gregg rookies for $1, but they still keep them in their cases. Might come down to 90 cents in quantity. It is a vicious circle...they won't sell old inventory at market prices so they can't afford new inventory and conclude that the market is dead.

[Harliduck]

bbcard1...I couldn't agree more. I would walk in that shop, and walk right out...nothing in there would interest me in the least, and I won't even admit to my annual card budget, :D. I know vintage collectors are the minority, but one look at ebay traffic shows our hobby is alive and well, and growing. To gage our hobby by that pathetic shop is like gauging Blockbuster with the movie/dvd business. Markets change, evolve...either move with the times or be left behind. That shop looks like it should have been left behind in 1994...

[MattyC]

I find that article to be very poorly done; it is incredibly myopic, and lazily fails to try and gain an overall perspective of the hobby. If I had more free time, I would write a counter-piece to balance out that hackwork. Bottom line, that writer failed.

[Exhibitman]

Agreed. An intellectually lazy article not at all reflective of the reality of the hobby.

[ZenPop]

Don't you realize that I ate a fishstick, so fishstick sales must be up?!!

[ScottFandango]

I think there are a lot of factors on what defines a successful card shop. Yes, there are certainly less of them today then 5-10 years ago and the business has changed with online sales with less retail sales, but there are still plenty of thriving card shops.

I opened my shop recently and quite frankly, am really surprised at the traffic we are already getting. As of late, it's been really busy. People like the local card shop for many reasons, but also the human aspect of it...to interact with other collectors to talk about sports / collecting, selling and trading cards and just shooting the stuff. Its a nice place to get away for awhile. That's where the online market misses the mark...the stories, friendships & memories you establish at the "old card shop."

For us, it's our business and we are focusing on upcoming auctions and online sales, however, we opened to provide a nice place for collectors young and old to talk about the hobby and to build relationships with other collectors just like us...that's what makes it fun...and if you keep up with the hobby enough and adapt, you can make it a successful business too.

Happy Collecting!

Good,luck to you....you are so rigght about the relationship aspect...my local card shop was always busy...he did a lot of giveaways...if you spent 20$ you got a ticket...on Sunday they would do a raffle with the tickets and give stuff away...there was standing room only on Sunday's!
Guy sold the store at its peak and the new guy ran it into the ground..this was only in 2004

[martyogelvie]

i visit a card shop maybe once a year... There is only one shop close to me and they don't focus on baseball cards as much as they do other sports trinkets. Hard to blame them, got to stay in business somehow.

[dabigyankeeman]

No good card stores around here at all. One good one closed up to sell on the internet only not too long ago. Nowhere to go anymore, just one decent show a month.

Cant believe the National is only 15% baseball cards? Geez!! Thats all i am buying now. I was intending to go up to Cleveland next year as i can visit a close friend who lives there, not sure about the show now if its so weak on baseball cards. Last show i went to was Dallas around 1990, boy, that was almost all baseball cards!

[insccollectibles]

My local card shop seems to be thriving. They have a great inventory of vintage cards and have been on ebay for a very long time. Online sales are critical to maintain in today's card market.

[Julz24]

I only have 1 shop that's near me at the moment and it's surprising to me how he stays in business. He almost never has new inventory and the cards behind the glass never get changed out. In the few times I've been there, I was the only customer.

The guy doesn't sell on Ebay either so its kind of a mystery how he pays the bills??

[quinnsryche]

I only have 1 shop that's near me at the moment and it's surprising to me how he stays in business. He almost never has new inventory and the cards behind the glass never get changed out. In the few times I've been there, I was the only customer.

The guy doesn't sell on Ebay either so its kind of a mystery how he pays the bills??

This is EXACTLY what I could have wrote about the 1 store in the Nashville area.
Not such an uncommon occurence I guess.

[Bosox Blair]

Agreed. An intellectually lazy article not at all reflective of the reality of the hobby.

+1

Comical really, on the heels of an REA auction with around $10 million in sales, and more sports auction houses opening and thriving by the year.

That article was just like the Dave Justice rookies...not worth the paper wasted to print on.

I was at the 2011 Chicago National for 3 days. Absolutely no way baseball cards only made up 15% of the inventory or sales. No way. Don't know how these numbers are determined, but they are way too low. Maybe - just maybe - prewar cards were only 15-20% of what was at the show, but I was practically blinded by row after row of shiny new(ish) baseball cards everywhere I looked. I don't collect this stuff, so it was an annoyance to me how much of it was there...

Having said this, I'm not a defender of the B&M card shop in general. Most every one I've seen in the last 20 years should have been plowed under. Whenever I travelled to a new city 20 years ago I went to every card shop and bookstore I could find. Now I still buy as many (more in fact!) cards and books, but never, ever waste my time looking for a B&M shop. 95%+ of my purchasing is done online.


Cheers,
Blair

[xcgrammer]

There are several baseball card shop in Chicago that are thriving one Baseball Card King has three locations one that just opened this year. They are organized and really have their stuff together. They have a good amount of vintage especially at one of their locations. I enjoy seeing them succeed when most are going the other way. Especially in my home town that once had four stores, now just one that is barely hanging on, mostly just coins. But yes same issue someone previously mentioned, no new inventory in the cases. He has all the early 90's stuff still. I kinda like it because it brings me back to my childhood however can't be good for business.

[Wymers Auction]

What planet does she come from? I would gladly throw away a garbage bag full of Magic cards to get to the baseball cards.

[bbcard1]

This is EXACTLY what I could have wrote about the 1 store in the Nashville area.
Not such an uncommon occurence I guess.

I think I went there! Excellent selection for about 1992...but it was 2012. Went pretty far out of my way and left without finding anything I could possibly consider purchasing.

[BruceWayne]

Some very interesting observations made here. Personally, I think it is difficult to refute the fact that the retail store model has needed to change with the advent of the internet. I attended the Industry Summit in Vegas this past March and I was extremely impressed with how hard-working and innovative some of the shop owners were who were in attendance. Granted, those dealers may not be a representative sample of all the shop owners in the industry but I was pretty impressed with the things they were doing to cater to the needs of their customers.

Notably, it was quite obvious to seeing the growing trend for card shops to focus on unopened wax for customers hoping to pull big insert cards. This is clearly a byproduct of the card manufacturing marketing strategy. While I understand that may make little sense to a vintage card collector, I think we need to accept this as a reality for store owners in today's environment. In addition, I noticed the new trend of "Case Breaks" is becoming more popular and that is also a product of the proliferation of information technology.

I also see a trend toward contests which include the gaming segment. Again, this stems from the reality that the younger generation is much more interactive than previous generations (a byproduct of the world in which they are reared) and these contests allow customers to come to the shops and spent time together. To my understanding, many of these contests are done with non-sport product.

Just a few observations I noticed from my attendance at the Summit. Again, I cannot stress enough how impressed I was with how hard-working and dedicated some of the shop owners are and how they work to reach the grass roots of the hobby.

[savedfrommyspokes]

+1



I was at the 2011 Chicago National for 3 days. Absolutely no way baseball cards only made up 15% of the inventory or sales. No way. Don't know how these numbers are determined, but they are way too low. Maybe - just maybe - prewar cards were only 15-20% of what was at the show, but I was practically blinded by row after row of shiny new(ish) baseball cards everywhere I looked. I don't collect this stuff, so it was an annoyance to me how much of it was there...






I walked the entire show, and while there were fewer tables than when I last went to the National in Chicago in 05, and it seemed that I stopped at at least every other table simply because they were offering vintage. Not sure where the 15-20% estimate came from???

[Bosox Blair]

I walked the entire show, and while there were fewer tables than when I last went to the National in Chicago in 05, and it seemed that I stopped at at least every other table simply because they were offering vintage. Not sure where the 15-20% estimate came from???

I think you are saying what I'm saying...

The article that is the subject of this thread says that baseball cards - of every kind and age - comprise only 15% of "inventory" at the National now (quoting the organizer of the National).

I was saying (and I think you are also saying) that cannot be...it is way too low.

Cheers,
Blair

[Exhibitman]

The 15% figure could only be right by bulk/size, if you count all of the corporate display area, food court, bathrooms and aisles, Olympics/Euroweirdo zone, autograph area, VIP sitting area, and figure that each piece of crappy manufactured memorabilia can take up as much space as 10,000 baseball cards.

[Leon]

You guys can ask the author of the 15% number as he is set to speak at the Net54baseball Dinner again this year, Mike Berkus. In the next several days, or less, there will be an RSVP thread for said Dinner.

[tcdyess]

My thought is that the industry as a whole needs to succeed with new product in order to ever grow interest in vintage. How many of us collected cards from our local stores as kids (I remember going to the local Caldor with my parents hoping they would get me a few cello packs) and then expanded back into vintage as we grew through adulthood. Kids need to get into the hobby... period. Players like Trout, Harper, Strasburg, Machado, and now Puig have given the game a youth boost it hasn't seen in some time. Topps seems to be providing a lower priced avenue for kids to get in. Will they, who knows, but I have to say when I visit Wal-Mart or Target, I always see some kids checking out the card sections. If they do enjoy the hobby, those are hopefully the vintage collectors of the future as they leave college, start their family and look for their personal hobbies. MLB seems to be intent on cleaning up the game and focusing on marketing the new young talent. Over the next decade as the ARODs and other PED players retire, the game will hopefully enjoy and focus on some of the new and great true talents..... one can only hope....

As far as B&M, there isn't much left around me and although I miss going in and chatting about baseball and collecting, that's what NET54 is for!!!!

With rose colored glasses and glass half full....

Tim

[larrie804]

In the early 1990s there were 32 card shops in the Richmond Virginia area...today there are only three. The owner of the best is ill and planning to sell or close! Very sad!

[slidekellyslide]

There is only one card shop left in Lincoln and I think he's still doing pretty well for himself. His focus is new product with insert cards and local sports heroes like Alex Gordon and Ndamukong Suh. He has very few pre-war cards, and he still has a whole wall filled with Starting Lineups that don't appear to have been touched in a decade or two, but he's doing something right because he's still here and he almost always seems busy on the few days a year I come in to purchase supplies.

[barrysloate]

I think future hobbyists will go directly to collecting vintage cards, and bypass the current ones altogether. Opening wax packs to put a current set together is dying, but collecting vintage is popular and will continue to attract new collectors.

[slidekellyslide]

I think future hobbyists will go directly to collecting vintage cards, and bypass the current ones altogether. Opening wax packs to put a current set together is dying, but collecting vintage is popular and will continue to attract new collectors.

I don't believe this is true at all...most people start collecting current cards and as they learn the history of the game become attracted to vintage cards. I agree that putting together sets may be at an all time low but I also tend to think there are many more people out there in search of a Mike Trout or Yasiel Puig card than a Ty Cobb card...we may not recognize that as fact though because most of us here don't venture outside of the vintage hobby.

[camlov2]

Agreed. An intellectually lazy article not at all reflective of the reality of the hobby.

Are we talking about the hobby of collecting current baseball cards or vintage? The main focus of this board is vintage cards and I would agree that this segment of the hobby is alive and well. The article does give an accurate picture of current day baseball cards. Current cards have always been the largest part of the hobby, even if vintage is growing every year a drop in sales of current cards means a drop in the overall hobby.

[queencitysportscards]

Thanks to a Net54 board member for making the connection, but Ryan Ludwick, came in today and signed a career home run ball and ticket that a friend of mine, Ryan King, caught...Ryan suddenly passed away recently. Our staff offered the ball to Ryan and instead he offered to sign it for us too keep it in memory of Ryan. Super Nice guy and even better to talk about collecting...you never know who is going to walk in the door...

[BruceWayne]

Thanks to a Net54 board member for making the connection, but Ryan Ludwick, came in today and signed a career home run ball and ticket that a friend of mine, Ryan King, caught...Ryan suddenly passed away recently. Our staff offered the ball to Ryan and instead he offered to sign it for us too keep it in memory of Ryan. Super Nice guy and even better to talk about collecting...you never know who is going to walk in the door...
Very nice to hear that Ryan Ludwick would do something so classy.

Also, my condolences regarding your friend Ryan.

[barrysloate]

I don't believe this is true at all...most people start collecting current cards and as they learn the history of the game become attracted to vintage cards. I agree that putting together sets may be at an all time low but I also tend to think there are many more people out there in search of a Mike Trout or Yasiel Puig card than a Ty Cobb card...we may not recognize that as fact though because most of us here don't venture outside of the vintage hobby.

I don't think kids are buying packs of new cards anymore. Maybe adults are, but not kids.

[wonkaticket]

I don't think kids are buying packs of new cards anymore. Maybe adults are, but not kids.

+1

The front end trading card business of the big boys i.e. Wal-Mart, Target, Toys-R-US is getting smaller and smaller each year. I know this for a fact. This isn’t being cut and reduced because business is good…or just a bit down.

[slidekellyslide]

+1

The front end trading card business of the big boys i.e. Wal-Mart, Target, Toys-R-US is getting smaller and smaller each year. I know this for a fact. This isn’t being cut and reduced because business is good…or just a bit down.

Well I don't really believe that business is good for the baseball card industry, I just don't feel that Barry's statement that people are forgoing new card collecting and heading straight to vintage is exactly true. I would bet most new vintage collectors headed to vintage because of products like Topps Heritage and Allen & Ginter. And I do believe there are more people searching out the newer baseball stars than there are people looking for a T206 Cobb.

I do agree though that kids just aren't buying cards anymore...it's all a gambling racket with new product and has been for more than a decade. Who drops $5,000 on a card of a guy who has only been in the big leagues for a month?? That card might not be worth more than a buck ten years from now. Smart people are putting that $5,000 down on a guy already in the hall of fame that's been dead for 50 years.

[wonkaticket]

Well I don't really believe that business is good for the baseball card industry,.

Not sure I follow Dan, having cards in department stores has been a part of the American landscape for some time. Anyone have the image of all the 52 Topps on the table at the Woolworth handy?

Bottom line if mainstream retailers are cutting back and local card shops are disappearing from the landscape choices for impressions via new cards will be less. This has been coming for years and years no reason card packs needed to get to the prices they went to.

The scratch off ticket mentality was the downfall of the modern card collecting business. Quite simply it priced out the casual collector who wasn’t interested in paying big bucks for the chance to rip packs and find chase cards.

Less and less young people are buying trading cards & stickers this is a fact, sad but true and the current retail landscape echoes this.

[slidekellyslide]

I agree with everything you've written...I said that business is NOT good for card companies. I still believe there are far more people looking for modern player cards than there are Ty Cobb collectors. I don't even think this is disputable.

[barrysloate]

Dan- you're probably correct that more people today are looking for a Steve Trout than a Ty Cobb. But that is not the discussion. I am saying that the number of young people buying packs today is a miniscule fraction of what it was when I was growing up, in the late 50's and early 60's. Back then buyng baseball cards was a rite of passage, done by almost every kid of my generation. Today virtually no young people buy them.

So if there is a future for the vintage card market, and I believe there is, it will start with people collecting their first baseball cards as adults, and it will be the older cards. It may be early Topps and Bowman, it may be Goudey or tobacco, but these future collectors will have no childhood memories of collecting them.

[kmac32]

Would anybody like to buy a Carlos Marmol rookie, I'm sure somebody can get it gardaed and you will have to pay someone to buy it. Reverse economics. LOL

[travrosty]

kids arent buying, the adults are for 100 dollars a pack, hoping to get that autograph insert card, you might as well have all the commons in the packs just blank pieces of white cardboard, they basically all go in the trash anyway. they just want the "hit" the memorabilia jersey card or the autograph card or the vintage autograph insert card. it's like a scratch off lottery that others have mentioned already.

kids arent buying these packs and trying to put together sets like we used to.

[sb1]

back then, packs were available at the I.G.A., the local ball diamond snack shack, the Duckwall's store, hell even the swimming pool concession stand had some, etc. and this was in a town of 2,000 population. My first year of 1969 Topps baseball, they were a nickel a pack. Now every kid in town had change from selling pop bottles or allowances, my grandmother would give me a dollar, that 20 packs! and Al McBean was in every 1st series pack it seemed like.

Nowadays, packs are several dollars, kids no longer work for change or get allowances(they get stipends instead) and need a friggin debit card(I do not use one) to make purchases.

While we decry this as an atrocity, it's simply evolution of a society and a collectible which unfortunately are not going to survive.

[slidekellyslide]

Dan- you're probably correct that more people today are looking for a Steve Trout than a Ty Cobb. But that is not the discussion. I am saying that the number of young people buying packs today is a miniscule fraction of what it was when I was growing up, in the late 50's and early 60's. Back then buyng baseball cards was a rite of passage, done by almost every kid of my generation. Today virtually no young people buy them.

So if there is a future for the vintage card market, and I believe there is, it will start with people collecting their first baseball cards as adults, and it will be the older cards. It may be early Topps and Bowman, it may be Goudey or tobacco, but these future collectors will have no childhood memories of collecting them.

I misunderstood you then, Barry. I completely agree.

[tschock]

So if there is a future for the vintage card market, and I believe there is, it will start with people collecting their first baseball cards as adults, and it will be the older cards. It may be early Topps and Bowman, it may be Goudey or tobacco, but these future collectors will have no childhood memories of collecting them.

What will do you think will be their motivation to collect vintage cards?

I'd be curious to hear from those who did NOT collect as a kid. What got you started as an adult? (I have my guesses but I don't want to presume)

[barrysloate]

Their motivation may be nothing more than the fun of collecting. Look at all the collectors today spending multi-millions of dollars on paintings. Well, none of them collected art as kids, that's for sure. These are people who now make a lot of money and have developed a passion in their adulthood. Why would baseball cards be any different?

[scooter729]

Dan- you're probably correct that more people today are looking for a Steve Trout than a Ty Cobb.

I'm sure any of us could have said the same, Barry, but it's Mike Trout, not Steve. At least you didn't call him Dizzy!

[cobblove]

Just thought Id add my thoughts on the "Dying hobby"
I agree it is alive and well with current internet sales.
But on the concern of the younger people getting into the hobby. I think it does not start and end with the sports card hobby shop. It's completely about the game in general. Its about getting the kids playing the game and also respecting the current players. And making it easy to see a real game to respect the game. My thoughts I think we need to make it easier to have kids go to a game and not make it a 1 time a year event like disnyland(ticket prices seem to be very strong). It needs to be a family driven price for tickets to get in and learn the game. i know they make an effort on this but the prices are getting higher and attendance seems lower. I hear a lot lately that baseball is boring to watch. But all i see is tickets going for more than a flight to the next state. There are several problems I think. And my view is that it needs to go back to why whe enjoy collecting a sport as a hobby.
Just saying my concerns and not the norm Im sure.

[Jlighter]

Dan- you're probably correct that more people today are looking for a Steve Trout than a Ty Cobb.

There are people looking for Steve Trout cards?

[Jlighter]

Their motivation may be nothing more than the fun of collecting. Look at all the collectors today spending multi-millions of dollars on paintings. Well, none of them collected art as kids, that's for sure. These are people who now make a lot of money and have developed a passion in their adulthood. Why would baseball cards be any different?

Exactly! This is the point I try to make in every fate of the hobby thread.

I doubt many 16 year olds are drinking $300 bottles of wine or using stamps. When was the last time you saw someone under the age of 18 use a penny? The hobby will be fine, I'm not worried.:)

[barrysloate]

I'm sure any of us could have said the same, Barry, but it's Mike Trout, not Steve. At least you didn't call him Dizzy!

Oops!:o....and he's one of my favorite players.

[Rich Klein]

real money comes from the "new" cards. With the licensing fees MLB gets from Topps and MLBPA gets from Topps, Upper Deck and Panini, we are about one percent of the collectors.

Barry, it would be nice to get people right to vintage but you got to start somewhere and Wally World and Target are now our front lines in many locations.

And there is the "hope" factor, for example -- (as a plug here) -- read my revioews in Sports Collectors Daily and my editor now puts all my stories on Facebook. Talking about a product like Topps 2 Baseball got about 40 likes, talking about The Trader Speaks got about 10 likes and talking about some other topics got maybe five likes. In other words, lots of people like the new stuff and it's not going away any time soon.

As for the lady's store, I think at this point, if I remember the article correctly she is 89 years old and the store gives her something to do and frankly keeping up with all the new stuff is hard. You have to keep up with both players and products.

Rich

[murcerfan]

Barry, but it's Mike Trout, not Steve. At least you didn't call him Dizzy!

I pulled a Dizzy Trout once.

No wait...... different forum, sorry.

[murcerfan]

I don't even know where I'd go if I wanted to buy a pack of baseball cards.

Was in a walmart for the first time in years last night (buying another dehumidifier) and waiting at check-out I saw no BB cards on display.

I used to score packs of '70 and '71 Topps across the street from our Middle School every day at a candy store (yes, a candy store directly across the street run by a little old lady) as did most of the hoodlums that rode the bus home with me, we'd swap cards and talk baseball the whole ride home :)

....happy times.

We never figured out the high numbered cards came out during summer break :mad:

[barrysloate]

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

Of the dwindling number of new card buyers, how many are buying to piecemeal complete sets together, and how many are buying only for the chase cards? I don't consider the latter to be a form of collecting, but more akin to buying a quick-pick lottery ticket.

How many stories have you heard about people buying packs, opening them up at the counter, and then throwing away the cards after they discover they didn't get any valuable ones? That's not collecting either.

Of course as long as new cards are being issued, some people will be buying them. But the number of buyers will be tiny compared to what we might consider the golden age of baseball cards (of which our definition may vary).

[Rich Klein]

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.

I'd think you be saddened by how few baseball fans have heard of Christy Mathewsonl, I think Cobb is better known but only because of that wretched movie of the 1990's. And it took his passing for anyone to remember Stan Musial outside of St. Louis, Kids today are not into baseball history the way our generation was-- for them baseball history is Mike Schmidt and Dwight Gooden and Reggie Jackson and those people who we have video of.


Of the dwindling number of new card buyers, how many are buying to piecemeal complete sets together, and how many are buying only for the chase cards? I don't consider the latter to be a form of collecting, but more akin to buying a quick-pick lottery ticket.

More than you think, however base sets are cheap enough the ways to buy the last cards you need for a set are so varied (Beckett Marketplace, COMC and tons of internet outlets, that the old school way of shows and stores to finsih sets is much less than in the past

How many stories have you heard about people buying packs, opening them up at the counter, and then throwing away the cards after they discover they didn't get any valuable ones? That's not collecting either.

Barry -- that was true about the cards beikng left on the counters in the 1980's - my late friends who ran H&H Hobbies, a truly local 1980's card store would have people come in, buy their 1985 packs and if the "rookies" were not hit, the cards were left on the counter. And I wager the kids in the 1930's if they did not hit a Babe Ruth card gave their Willie Kamm cards away.

Of course as long as new cards are being issued, some people will be buying them. But the number of buyers will be tiny compared to what we might consider the golden age of baseball cards (of which our definition may vary).

Barry -- I think you are severly underestmiating the new card market --- I do agree the new card market is no where near where it was in the early 1990's (we were bigger than detrifice (toothpaste) but come to Texas, come to this local show I set up at and see how active the new card world is :)

[barrysloate]

Maybe the new card market is bigger than I am assuming it is, but it is still a fraction of what it used to be. And if I'm a betting man, I would say it will continue to get smaller.

[xcgrammer]

Here is what I think: I was born in 1980, so I grew up in the boom times for baseball cards the late 80's and early 90's. Even though the hobby was being over produced by every company, to the point that they were killing values and turning off a lot of people most didn't realize this at the time. It was still a purer time and kids my age were truly passionate about it. I'm talking a VERY high percentage collected then. Much greater than today, our grandfathers collected, our fathers collected. They told us about Mickey Mantle and such. We bought Becketts and flipped to the old sets in awe of the high dollar signs on things like 1952 Topps Mantle's, so we still place value on these things. In 1991 I used to dream of the great vintage cards of the 1950's. My dad had a little stack of mid 50's and early 60's cards that he gave to me. My best card was a 1961 Whitey Ford All-Star worth about 80-100 dollars according to the guide.

My fathers generation values vintage cards because they grew up buying them. That generation taught us to collect they were the golden era. That generation, the baby boomers, will not be around in 20-25 years. My generation as long as we are here will value cards, vintage and the like. However when we are gone in the next 50 or so years there will be no one left who first-hand experienced the hobby when it was hugely popular. My generation for the most part hasn't taught the kids of today to collect. We have lost this next generation and thus lost all future generations.

This simply has to at some point affect values. While there will still be small percentages collecting with massive amounts of money to blow auctions records through the roof, I HAVE to think that the bulk of the hobby will have to be devalued at some point. Simply due to the fact that with fewer collectors (over the next 50 years who grew up collecting) it is back to simple supply and demand. Eventually you are going to get to a place where it is just viewed as pieces of paper. Everyone would have to agree that kids of today place little value or know much about the history of anything. I have to think this will only get worse with time. Believe me I am the last person who wants to see this happen.

I feel often that I was born 50 years too late. I am however thankful that my dad took the time to take me to Walgreens and baseball card shops and teach me and get me hooked on the hobby. I will be forever grateful to him for this and cherish those memories. I just wish future generations would have the same experience and value it as well.

[bbcard1]

There was a time when every ten to twelve year old boy in America collected baseball cards. I owned a shop at that time and was, in my own way, a celebrity. It was a smallish town (about 75,000) and I was often on television and in the news. My wife and I virtually never went into a restaurant without some kid saying, "look, it's the baseball card guy." We tried hard and tried to trade with the kids...never made much money...I think at the peak my partner and I were probably making $24K each a year, but we also split hours so we could pursue other interests...I did freelance writing, he did some acting and building. We also probably spent 30% or our paycheck back on stuff for our collected, granted at a decent discount. Weird things happened all the time. I remember being at a show when Mark McGuire was on a tear and his rookie cards literally tripled from the show open until the show close because he hit two homers that day. People actually kept up with baseball. Another odd thing that happened at shows and shops is that dealers actually tried to conduct business and had some semblance of customer service instead of standing off to the side grousing about how bad business was. It was a good time but we'll never see it again.

[slidekellyslide]

Hi Rich- a few thoughts about what you said.

I think there will be somebody somewhere buying newer cards, but there will still be many future collectors who will go straight to vintage. Every baseball fan has heard of Ty Cobb and Christy Mathewson so that is not a stretch at all.



Cobb? Maybe, but Christy Mathewson? Nope...I actually found a 1906 New York Giants postcard with Matty on it at a garage sale last week (for a whole nickel!) I told my buddy who IS a big baseball fan and he didn't know who that was. We're in a bubble Barry, we may think everyone outside of that bubble is aware of our world, but they are not. :D

[barrysloate]

That's surprising Dan. I know there are many people who actively follow baseball today who have never heard of Cap Anson or Mike Kelly, but I thought Christy Mathewson was a little more widely known. No question, however, that collectors live in a bubble. We assume everybody finds baseball cards fascinating, which of course most of the population doesn't.

[RCMcKenzie]

The 70's cards I collected as a kid are absolutely worthless. A 1952 Topps common in collector grade is worth 2 dollars at best. Same for Playballs and Goudeys. As long as people follow baseball there will be a market for the cards. The older the better. See Atlantics CDV auction etc.

[MattyC]

I am 37. If the next and successive generations have caused a no-demand situation in which Balt News Ruths are selling for $500 or $5000 dollars (a scenario to which I personally don't subscribe), I do know I won't be alive to see it.

As long as my generation of collectors is part of the buying pool, the prices will be pretty stable. I know too many guys in their 30s and 40s who never saw Ruth, Cobb, DiMaggio, Mantle, or Koufax play. But we revere their names in the hobby, the sport, and even popular culture. And their cards are revered, for what they represent, their aesthetic beauty, and because as kids we did stare at them in CCPs and Becketts and dreamed of one day owning them.

So if there ever is a world with little demand for the great vintage HOfer cards of today, I'll be very, very old, and care very little. If anything, I'd probably welcome that scenario, as it will allow me to make a flurry of long-desired purchases before my number is called.

[Rich Klein]

Because he is larger than life, and with all those movies and books on him and every once in a while Topps brings him back as well -- Ruth will be just fine as a collecting icon.

The Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle stuff will be fine as well.

Now, Harmon Killebrew will be forgotten once the generation who saw him play begins to really die off. Sorry, that is just a fact just as that will happen with Brooks Robinson, Enos Slaughter, Big John Mize, etc.

It is what it is

Rich

[yomass]

Go long Magic cards, Ninja turtle action figures and MIB classic Nintendo games.
Those are what today's kids will be nostalgic for when they grow up.
Even those worthless beanie babies will be worth having in 2035...

[packs]

I am in the camp of hoping that in 30 years when advanced collectors today are old and selling their collection en masse that prices plummet due to an over saturated market and no demand from the incoming generation.

I know of no human outside of this board that would know who Addie Joss was. They brought his name up on Sports Center after Bailey's second no-hitter and the anchor acted like Joss was just some guy who pitched a hundred years ago. No thought as to who he was.

Personally I know no one my age that collects. At card shows I might see one other person my age looking at pre-war. There are collectors my age on the board, but I don't know if they're whales like the advanced collectors. They may turn into them, but will you need that kind of cash in 30 years? I don't think so. I would be very surprised if T206 Cobb's in a 3 are still selling for $1,000 30 years from now. And I don't see them going up after all the cards in private collections are freed up by estate sales.

Looking forward to my collection being worthless so I can have all of the cards I've always wanted while people shell out $10,000 for a Bowman Pujols.

[Vol]

I know of no human outside of this board that would know who Addie Joss was.

Personally I know no one my age that collects.



+1

[Bored5000]

I am also of the belief that card values on the whole will go down over time; there just aren't enough young collectors to sustain the current level of prices. I wonder how much of the lack of interest in the hobby by people under 30 is impacted by the perception that baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia is a hobby populated by shysters and scammers.

Obviously, there are many honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But I do find myself exasperated at times by the seemingly infinite amount of people looking to rip off buyers.

I hope I am wrong about this, but I think the counterfeit cards/slabs wil keep improving to the point that it may be impossible to tell what is real and what is fake. If that is the case, I can definitely see the high end market of Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb/Jordan etc. cards collapsing as people just throw their hands up and give up.

[packs]

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless. What drove the prices up? I think it was older collectors getting back into collecting to be in touch with some aspect of their childhood and with higher incomes than they ever had before, along with wider access via the internet. At least that's my opinion.

People my age aren't going to be nostalgic about anything. Maybe they'll long for the days of flip phones and MySpace, but I don't think today's world allows for nostalgia like it used to. I try to think of things that I would return to from my childhood of the early 90s and I can't think of anything.

I'm naturally interested in history and I like baseball. But there aren't too many other people like me in my circle. Or maybe I just don't know where they are. I can't see any of my friends collecting cards for any reason for the rest of their lives. If they return to the things from their past, my guess is it will be old electronics.

[Deertick]

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless.

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

[Julz24]

+1

+2


The last person that I knew that collected cards moved out of town some 20 years ago. I tried to tell a good friend at work that I collect baseball cards. He looked at me like I was an idiot and I never brought it up again. And he is a hardcore baseball fan...

We're a dying breed I fear.

[rhettyeakley]

I mean cards have only really been expensive for the past 10 years or 15 years. Before that they were worthless.

are you serious with this comment? So cards were worthless until 1998-2003?

I am much more optimistic about this hobby than most I guess based on the comments thus far. I think people are over analyzing things. As long as there are people that like both sports and history the future is probably fine. There are tons of hobbies out there that don't require one to have collected that item as a child to ensure that they collect as an adult. Heck, as a kid I was way more into Star Wars figures than I was baseball cards but only have a passive interest in them now. There is a portion of the population that likes to collect things, some couldn't care less. Those that have an interest in sports and like to collect things will be driven to this hobby. The overall limited supply of prewar sports cards actually IMO bodes well for this hobby. This is a hobby where a total population of under100 items is rather normal, a hobby such as coins and stamps any item with a total population in that range would be viewed as ultra rare and highly collected.

I think there will still be collectors they just might not follow the same path to the hobby as many of us did to get here. Again, I may be overly optimistic in the way I see it but only time will tell.

[packs]

Well what would you say the average price for a VG T206 Cobb any pose would have run you in 1998? Now you're going to pay somewhere around $1,000 on average.

I don't mean worthless as in zero value. My opinion (and it's just an opinion) is that cards didn't see real value until the internet became readily accessible.

[wonkaticket]

Go long Magic cards, Ninja turtle action figures and MIB classic Nintendo games.
Those are what today's kids will be nostalgic for when they grow up.
Even those worthless beanie babies will be worth having in 2035...

+1

[MattyC]

I am also of the belief that card values on the whole will go down over time; there just aren't enough young collectors to sustain the current level of prices. I wonder how much of the lack of interest in the hobby by people under 30 is impacted by the perception that baseball cards/autographs/memorabilia is a hobby populated by shysters and scammers.

Obviously, there are many honest and ethical people involved with the hobby. But I do find myself exasperated at times by the seemingly infinite amount of people looking to rip off buyers.

I hope I am wrong about this, but I think the counterfeit cards/slabs wil keep improving to the point that it may be impossible to tell what is real and what is fake. If that is the case, I can definitely see the high end market of Ruth/Gehrig/Cobb/Jordan etc. cards collapsing as people just throw their hands up and give up.

If they can't fake fine art to the point where prices of Van Goghs to Basquiats collapse, the forgers won't collapse the market on Ruths and Mantles. The money to be made now in faking cards is great; the technology available today is great; and yet, we can still discern real from fugazi. I doubt some miracle technology will appear that blows the game open with respect to forging.

We all have different definitions in our heads, when we wonder where "cards" will be in value down the line. My money is on the big HOF cards with eye appeal only appreciating in the years if not decades to come.

And let's say those seeing a collapse due to low-demand are right; when will this happen? 50 years, when guys in their mid 30s now are 80s? There are enough of us in our 30s and 40s to sustain current prices and then some. Even guys who are 50 today have at least, on average, a quarter century left of active buying. So color me unconcerned about what happens 25+ years out.

I don't know many people who project and act on 25 or 50 year windows. 2 years, 5 years, maybe even 10. Buy once we are talking about what happens around half a century down the line (or even a couple decades) I think it all just becomes too impossible to say.

[dabigyankeeman]

People my age aren't going to be nostalgic about anything. Maybe they'll long for the days of flip phones and MySpace, but I don't think today's world allows for nostalgia like it used to. I try to think of things that I would return to from my childhood of the early 90s and I can't think of anything.



The problem is that right now you are too young to be nostalgic about anything. Wait 30+ years, and you will see that things from your youth all of a sudden become neat, they become great old memories, they bring back your youth, and so on. You will see, remember when it happens, i predicted it here and now!!

[brett 75]

Speculation is a wonderful thing . Ask anyone who invested in real estate . If you could really tell which way the card market was going you would already be a billionaire . How about enjoying it for what it is a Hobby . :cool: Brett

[cardaholic]

It's sort of fitting that the leader of the dinosaur media sought out a dinosaur hobby shop for their article.
The internet has changed the card business, both vintage and modern. The chase card explosion (autos, game-used, etc.) has further changed the modern card business. The Times chose a card dealer who hasn't been with the times in decades and who seems to be running a store as a hobby to keep busy. They also got a choice quote from Upper Deck's "marketing guru", who when he's not busy urging collectors on the UD blog to be their local card store's sugar daddy [seriously - read it and retch (http://upperdeckblog.com/2013/05/the-2013-14-nhl-double-rookie-class-is-coming-prepare-by-supporting-your-local-card-shop/)] is only too happy to go along with the absurd idea that collectors still aren't used to buying and selling cards on the internet.

The modern card market is strong, but not much of it is about set collecting any more - Topps, Heritage, and Allen & Ginter are the big exceptions. Now, it's primarily player or team collecting, and collectors buy differently. A few years ago, team slots in online box breaks were almost unheard of. Now, it's how most high-end modern sets are sold and opened.

It's not surprising that the major retail stores are selling fewer and fewer cards. Between pack searchers and lousy odds for the expensive cards in retail packs, many collectors of modern cards avoid the retail card aisles.

I agree with almost everything Rich Klein has said in this thread, although I don't think Brooks Robinson will be forgotten - he has achieved legend status in Baltimore such that kids there know who he is.

[t206fix]

Well what would you say the average price for a VG T206 Cobb any pose would have run you in 1998? Now you're going to pay somewhere around $1,000 on average.

I don't mean worthless as in zero value. My opinion (and it's just an opinion) is that cards didn't see real value until the internet became readily accessible.

Yeah - but if you factor in inflation (look it up - gas was $1.06 a gallon back then...) and the fact that none of us had the internet readily available like we do now, and that vg Cobb is probably priced right for 1998. If I had a time machine, I would travel back to 1988, and I wouldn't have spent $$$ chasing Gregg Jeffries, Devon White and Bobby Bonilla RCs - and all my money would have been going into t206 Cobbs. But... there was no marketplace for them - I wouldn't know where to find one and, if I did, I would have paid probably $1000 at the local card shop for it.

The big game changer is in the internet. There is a market place out there right now for these cards where everyone in the whole world can compete for these cardboard gems. In 1998, I wouldn't know where to find a t206 cobb or even a t206 Danny Murphy Batting (I'm putting together a back run - if you've got one, let me know;)) Right now, I can go on the PSA/Sgc pop reports (I know the sgc pop report is lame) and see how many cards are out there graded. I can go on to VCP and Cardtarget and see how much these cards have been sold or priced at. If I buy a card with intention of flipping it, I know that that the everyone out there has seen what I paid for it... Information is everything, and right now, we have it at our fingertips. (Except for Leon, who must have government clearance on some of the searches he does... How many times do we need to see a post from him saying... "Look what I picked up on ebay. It's a 1914 Global Pirate Coupon (Ultra Rare Back only sold in Savannah, GA) Tris Speaker and I didn't spend that much on it ($7). It's the only one ever made!" Who knows about all these different cards unless he does have some sort of gov't clearance... right, Leon:) Your secret is safe with me...)

(DJ - start the Star Spangled Banner music in the background)

I love America and our free market ('Merica - love it). Because of this little thing called ebay (I know, I hate it too, but I also love it...) and Auction Houses, we know now that we can purchase a PSA 2 Red t206 Cobb from Henry Puffe in Lander, Wyoming for $540, or an SGC 20 from Merle Finkleberger in Jupiter, Florida for $495, and we know that we are not getting ripped off. But, if I see one going on ebay for a BIN of $800, well, buyer beware. Also, there's a 90% chance that we can resell that card for the same or an even higher amount in a year if needed (except in a global economic collapse or alien invasion).

So, anyhow, what is the point of my beer induced, way too long post...
I think that our hobby/addiction has never been better. If I wake up tomorrow, and t206 Cobbs are going for $75 (if you are selling a t206 cobb for $75, pm me first, I'll take it), then I know there will be trouble (not really, I'll still buy them from you). Right now, I can't even sniff a t206 cobb sgc10 for $400, so I'm pretty confident the market will stay stable. And yes, my 9 and 11 year old sons know who Ty Cobb is, and they'll buy a t206 cobb from you for $75 also.

Right now, check ebay and see how much a Mike Trout RC (http://www.ebay.com/itm/2009-Mike-Trout-Bowman-Chrome-Refractor-Auto-PSA-10-Gem-Mint-187-500-RARE-/170919722353?pt=US_Baseball&hash=item27cb9bfd71) would run you, and ask yourself, have we changed since 1991? All of us on the vintage side say these are crap (or carp) cards, but are they, if they are really going for this much. Somebody's buying it...

[HOFAUTOS]

Take a visit to the Blowout Cards forum or FCB. Then visit YouTube and see all the mail day videos. Once you're done with that visit Vaughnlive.tv or ustream and see all the group case breaks. The hobby is huge and there are plenty of kids/teenagers in it. They might not buy cards from Wal Mart (they're smarter and know hobby product is better than retail) but they are active all over the Internet.

[Rich Klein]

There wsa a 13 year old (or so) dealer doing his first show and his whole family was into collecting including his grand mother.

He was mentioning to one of the other dealers (I only caught part of the conversation) about some really new scholl internet trading forum which invoved doing everything with videos on line. I'll find out more but the kids who get into collecting will be using new tools to collect we do not know about.

Heck, I'm not on this yet but apparently reddit is where it's at for social media and facebook is over the hill :o

Rich

P.S. While I like when people agree with me -- I still think Brooks will fade into history (outside Baltimore) as Cal will be the forever legend in Baltimore.

Heck, at yesterday's show for the first time I've been dong that show, I actually had people asking for Pudge and Ryan cards and their best days were only 10-20 years ago.