The next five years- what do you see for the future of the hobby?

[sesop]

Since I asked last weekend about what's been new in the hobby over the past 5 years, the natural next question seems to be: what do you see for the future of the hobby?

Personally, having spent much of the past week digging through archives during the time I was out of the hobby, my suspicion is a lot more of the same down the same paths- i.e.- tougher anomalies will rise in value as differentiators (It may be worth mentioning- I'm not saying I agree with the exorbitant prices of stuff like blue back old mills, nor do I care- just saying I don't see it fading anytime soon, as plenty of people care a lot about differentiating themselves).

I also expect to see higher prices for key HOFers (obviously), but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the more esoteric stuff like E99, T211s will drop in value even more because new collectors will place more importance on collecting players they have a chance of learning about. I think this means more people will start to pursue Goudey and stuff from the '40s, '50s, '60s and even 70s, as it's much easier to find a newspaper clip or even film footage of even the lousiest player than it would be to find footage of, say, Gordon Hickman. Also, there may be some element of a 10 year old kid today hearing his grandfather talk about watching Nolan Ryan pitch and the kid will be more attracted to "vintage" Nolan Ryan than vintage Cap Anson.

Again- this has nothing to do with my personal preference, what I like, dislike or even agree with, just a guess based on a bunch of crap in my head. Most collectors of vintage anything are history buffs, and if there's a personal connection, the value tends to be greater. The recent history, though not as old as turn of the century cardboard, will be "older" relatively soon and there's a lot more stuff available for less money from the 1950s and 60s than the 1910s.

I saw a post from about 4 years ago the other day along similar lines- can't remember who said it, but he nailed it- higher prices for Cobb, Wagner, et al, lower prices for stuff on the fringe due to less interest/competition. Maybe this is kind of obvious now, but I remember a time when it was nearly impossible to pick up an E99, T210 or T211 without tremendous competition.

I could go on and on but I'm interested in getting the conversation started. What do you think? Will T205 rise in popularity? Will scads of people clammer to buy T207s? Will a trove of information come to light about every player in the T210 set, making it more accessible? Will anybody ever care about the 1980s in our lifetime? Will cards, in general, gain in popularity or will memorabilia supersede it in popularity? Will people ever clean their pools with paprika?

[rainier2004]

It seems like the rule of thumb for cards to rise in price are some combo of rare, key HOFers and top condition. People seem to gravitate toward something of "their own". As far as specifics, I think 1914 CJs are going to continue their rise. Other rare, well known issues like e107 would also continue to rise. T3s also seemed to take a big hit, but they continue to sell and I would guess they make a comeback. Ruths, Wags, Cobbs and they key HOFers I think will always be in vogue regardless of condition. I also hope the hobby cleans out more of the scumbags and law enforcement would become better at enforcing fraud or I fear the entire hobby could be at risk. There needs to be a penalty for deceiving others just like there is for stealing...not sure if we'll get this. I tend to think the health pf the hobby is how many children are present at card shows and was happy to see a small return at the National. I also don't foresee my ability to be "right" rising anytime soon. :cool:

[vintagecpa]

If I had to speculate, I would guess prices will go down slightly for the next 5 years. I base this on a combination of things. 1. Baby-boomers retiring and are on more of a fixed income. 2. Lots of people that found themselves unemployed for extended periods of time will be more likely to save instead of buying cardboard. 3. Younger collectors havr more interest in more modern cards 4. Baseball doesn't hold the same nostalgic value to newer collectors. As a kid, my entire summer was spent playing baseball, not Call For Duty. 5. I just see an overall trend of less discretionary income for such hobbies given today's economic environment. Just my opinion.

*Disclaimer* I thought Apple Computer was a bad investment 10 years ago when the stock was trading at about $25/share, so my track record of predicting the future is sketchy-at-best.

[byrone]

*Disclaimer* I thought Apple Computer was a bad investment 10 years ago when the stock was trading at about $25/share, so my track record of predicting the future is sketchy-at-best.

Why, what happened to the stock price since then?

:)

[varsitycollectibles]

I agree with the notion that many of the pre-war players (excluding the obvious names) will drop in value. As much as I like the art aspect and history of pre-war cards, my grandmother never told me stories about players like Christy Mathewson. However, I've heard countless stories about Aaron, Gibson, Mays, and Ryan. It's those stories and my own personal experiences that shape my collection.

I also think that the shift from true collecting to a form of cardboard gambling will continue to hurt vintage value. Again, this excludes names like Ruth...

[packs]

I'm still pretty young so as morbid as it is I'm hoping collections become freed up and collectors become few and far between so that I can pick up what I want, not what I can afford. Of course that's long term.

In the next five years I think all type cards will take serious hits. There are some really cheap T211's and even cheap T215's. No one seems to be buying any 20s caramel besides the major stars.

[Wite3]

In five years the blue old mill will turn green...

[freakhappy]

In five years the blue old mill will turn green...

And worth $100,000! BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

[CharleyBrown]

I don’t necessarily agree with the notion that the lack of stories being told by parents/grandparents will tarnish the value of the non-iconic players of the 1870s-1930s..

I think that as long as there are people interested in baseball, and literature is out there, people’s interest will be there.

When I grew up, the stories I heard were of Whitey Ford, Mickey Mantle, DiMaggio, and Ted Williams...

It wasn’t those stories that influenced my collecting, but rather reading about baseball history. One only needs to read about Mathewson, Walter Johnson, etc. to be intrigued about them and find an interest in collecting them.

IMO, as long as the high rollers are still interested in collecting, be it for investment or pleasure or both, prices/values will remain strong.

[GregMitch34]

I doubt any comeback for postwar, and I'm glad I sold almost all my '50s cards two years ago...there are just too many of them that came out of the woodwork when grading came into vogue. Who knew? Now, as the great Leonard Cohen put it, Everybody Knows.

[Yankeefan51]

Whilst the future is not ours to see, the hobby's history tells us
that prices for the rarer issues are in large part determined by the
number of "whales" who compete in a given auction.

Apparently, the big whales from the early years of this decade, with a few
notable exceptions. have been beached Some just quit collecting, some found themselves in a difficult divorces and one or two found their way to that great stadium in the sky.

Logic states that extraordinary prices for PSA 8.5. 9 and 10 cards is subject to a great deal of risk. How many 52 Mantles can command a 6 figure price?

I think there will be some serious investigations into the grading firms, and the results will impact prices.

I also wonder what will happen to the 19th century cards as the baby boomers turn 70 and retire.

At the end of the day, while everyone of us cares deeply about the value of our respective collections, the real value emanates from the pleasure we receive from collecting.

I once authored a paper, "When It Was Hobby' . It is my sincere hope that the hobby lives on. Hopefully, we will be able to attract sophisticated collectors, promote the joy collecting and remember the wisdom of Bill Mastro who told me back in 1977- remember it is only Old Cardboard.

Happy Collecting to all

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List

[barrysloate]

Bruce made many good points, and the one that I've been thinking will have a big effect is the aging of the baby boomers. There will always be younger collectors coming in and taking their place, but they may not collect in the same way, or with the same fervor, as the generation of collectors who came of age in the late 1970's-early 1980's, and set the engine in motion for the hobby explosion that followed. Today, it's more like business as usual. Plenty of collectors, lots of buying and selling, but certainly not the meteoric growth that their predecessors experienced.

[packs]

I'm a younger collector (27) I have maybe seen one other person my age looking at the cards I do at a show. I don't think there is a lot of interest from my generation and even if there is an influx of new collectors, they will most likely be after new cards. Which is great for me.

[HOFautosChris]

Add me to the list of "young" collectors (32) interested in old cardboard and autographs.

[goodtricks]

26 here....

[packs]

We will be able to buy all the E107s we want at T206 prices in just 30 years.

[Matthew H]

We will be able to buy all the E107s we want at T206 prices in just 30 years.

Packs, I disagree. It's natural for a collector, with any collecting habit, to desire something rare. It happens in every genre of collecting, from Car collecting to beanie babies. I don't think you will ever be able to buy an e107 for a t206 price.

I also don't believe the baby boomers make such a big difference (other then with the post war cards they grew up with)

The population is still growing and there is a finite amount of prewar available. Baseball is still popular, and it's still human nature to want to collect stuff.

[packs]

I'm mostly kidding but I do think there is some truth to what I said. Consider why baby boomers collect cards. It's a connection to their childhood. I think you'd be hard pressed to find a baby boomer who collects vintage now that didn't buy packs when they were a kid.

Kids aren't buying packs anymore. When was the last time you saw a box of Topps at the gas station, or the grocery store? Even if kids are collecting, think about whats being pushed at them. Autographed cards, limited edition cards, game used cards etc. The Allen Ginter and sets like it are popular but they're popular amongst the older crowd. What child is going to chase the Napolean piece of hair card?

I have always been interested in pre-war cards because I'm naturally interested in history. However, I am the only person my age I know with a collection and I'm no shut in. I don't see the numbers amongst my generation that could possibly replace the baby boomers. Less collectors, more supply equal less demand and lower prices.

It's good and bad. It's good in the sense that people will collect because they want to collect, not because the cards are worth money. It's bad because collecting circles get smaller and smaller. But hey, every card we pay a lot of money for now was once virually worthless. And people still saved them. That's what I love about the hobby.

[Matthew H]

I understand most of your argument however I'm not buying into the baby boomers thing. Most people with enough disposable income to buy high end cards are little bit older than you or I, but I don't think it falls into a category of generation, other then post-war collecting nostalgia.

19th century, for example, can't possibly carry some connection to any current collectors childhood yet prices are very strong. Since coming to this board, I've learned that some collectors don't even like modern baseball. :confused:

So it seems being a fan of baseball isn't even a prerequisite to collecting baseball cards.

The people you describe, being buried in debt in the future, already exist. Yet you still can't get an E107 for a T206 price. There'll always be one guy with more money than the next guy, and he will be the one who has the better cards. No big deal.

[packs]

I think the link to 19th century and pre-war for the baby boomers comes from collecting their childhood cards. I was trying to say a lot of people my age didn't have childhood cards. And kids born now will probably have an even more narrow window into collecting 10 years from now when they get to the age I was when I started buying packs.

[Matthew H]

I think you might be judging too much based on your own expereance growing up without cards. The hobby was crazy at the time, Upperdeck was a new company and people were RC prospecting like crazy. My dad was a non collector yet he still took me and my brothers to card shows because it was what kids liked. I personally don't remember anyone without a card collection during my time as a kid, and I'm surprised to hear from someone that didn't collect them. Oh well, you can make up for lost time now. :)

[packs]

Hey, if you're right its collecting as usual. If I'm right, we get to afford all the cards we ever wanted. Seems win win. Or at least far from a loss.

[Jcfowler6]

I predict eBay will fall in an ugly scandal of some sort. This will in turn cause prices in our hobby to shift wildly in both directions. Buy everything now and hold on for the ride.

[sportscardpete]

We will be able to buy all the E107s we want at T206 prices in just 30 years.

T206 old mill blue back prices!

[alanu]

I predict eBay will fall in an ugly scandal of some sort. This will in turn cause prices in our hobby to shift wildly in both directions. Buy everything now and hold on for the ride.

I don't see ebay having a big scandal, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a scandal involving the grading companies and high graded cards and card doctoring, etc.

[mrvster]

o if we had a crystal ball:).....i would have closed the deal on my wagner when i was a kid....iv been chasing it ever since:o

i see the staples in our hobby hold strong(and maybe appreciate a tad)....

52 mantles, 33 lajoie, ojs, t206, wagner, the real "biggies" hold solid...

i see t206 continue to grow as more collector interest by the day...especially the rarities and collectors will realize how sick some t206 really are(some bias here:o)...


obscure sets/ example hold but not as rapid growth as the aforementioned cards/sets.....


just one mans humble opinion here:D

[Bosox Blair]

I doubt any comeback for postwar, and I'm glad I sold almost all my '50s cards two years ago...there are just too many of them that came out of the woodwork when grading came into vogue. Who knew? Now, as the great Leonard Cohen put it, Everybody Knows.

Agreed!

Cheers,
Blair

[Leon]

Since coming to this board, I've learned that some collectors don't even like modern baseball. :confused:

So it seems being a fan of baseball isn't even a prerequisite to collecting baseball cards.



There are a few of us, and I am one, that don't care for MLB today. It's for a lot of reasons starting back with the strike in 94-95 and the subsequent canceling of the world series. That being said I have played baseball or softball for 45 yrs and counting. I still play softball twice a week. I love the game....just not MLB. I love collecting stuff, the lithography of our cards, their values are interesting.....and in a big way, the friendships made.... Our family goes to a few AA local games and they are great. I think part of my issue is that it takes several hundred dollars to take a family to a MLB game now, with everything included. I would rather collect old baseball cards instead of spending hundreds to see a lot of whiny babies playing the game I love, but I know I am in the extreme minority. Liking "any" baseball certainly is not a prerequisite to be on the board.

As for our hobby in the next 5 yrs, I see it being strong as usual. Now is a great time to be collecting some niche cards as they are quite low relative to past values.

[Matthew H]

Hey Leon, sounds like you're still a fan of baseball though!

I get the whiney baseball players theme, but I just can't share the same sentiment,,, being a Dodger fan. My opinion, the cost is next to nothing to going Dodgers games, its always been that way. Especially when comparing it to trying to go to a Lakers game. :mad: (although you do need something to bite down on when it comes to paying for parking)

Anyway, I didn't mean for my post to be mean spirited toward anyone, I was just making a point that there are people in the hobby that don't care for baseball but still love the cards.

-Matt

[rainier2004]

Im seeing 52 topps mantles often. I have always felt the floor will drop out of this card. He was my Dad's hero growing up, even though he was in Michigan. My father is 63 and covets Mantle cards probably more than anything else but Ive always wondered what happens after his generation is no longer contributing to the hobby. Personally, I could care less about Mantles, it is a somewhat common card relatively speaking and it seems more people shoot past that era straight to pre-WW cards. My its just my slanted view.

[ullmandds]

I was just talking to a patient about that very topic...the drop-off in demand for Mickey Mantle...esp the rookie card!!!

I totally agree!

[bn2cardz]

Im seeing 52 topps mantles often. I have always felt the floor will drop out of this card. He was my Dad's hero growing up, even though he was in Michigan. My father is 63 and covets Mantle cards probably more than anything else but Ive always wondered what happens after his generation is no longer contributing to the hobby. Personally, I could care less about Mantles, it is a somewhat common card relatively speaking and it seems more people shoot past that era straight to pre-WW cards. My its just my slanted view.

I was just talking to a patient about that very topic...the drop-off in demand for Mickey Mantle...esp the rookie card!!!

I totally agree!

Peter,
Which one will drop in demand Mantle rookie, or the 52 Mantle?
I believe the 52 topps mantle should drop below the 51 bowman mantle eventually, and closer to the 52 bowman mantle. I don't think it will happen within 5 years though.

[SetBuilder]

I don't think you need to have a "connection" to the cards/eras to collect them. We have something called the internet now where you can research old players and learn about their careers.

After all, 19th century collectors on this board, unless they happen to be 110 years old, can't possibly have a connection in the form of nostalgia to those players.

[smtjoy]

I really dont see the price of a 1952 Topps Mantle going down any time in 5 years and probably not in 20 years unless we have a serious depression then all things will go down hard.

If the 52 topps Mantle does go down in the near future its a bad sign for card collecting prices in general, to me the T206 Wagner, 33 Lajoie and 52 Topps Mantle are the three cards that symbolize card collecting most and if they fall all others will follow.

I also dont think the 52 topps mantle will never be less than his rookie 51 bowman, the 52 is just to iconic of a card, see above.

[ullmandds]

I think the collectors/fans that love Mickey Mantle are those mainly NY fans that grew up watching him play. His statistics are impressive...but not like Babe Ruth/Ty Cobb/Hank Aaron, etc.

Perhaps in 5 yrs down the road there won't be much of a change...but I just cannot imagine people paying 6 figures for a high grade 52 topps mantle rookie in 20-30 yrs who never saw him play?

I think this decline in interest in Mantle will affect both the 51 and 52 "rookie" cards.

Remember guys...these mantle rookie cards are not scarce by any stretch of the imagination...they are pretty common relatively speaking. When supply exceeds demand...beware of falling prices.

Just my opinion?!

[rainier2004]

I can see the 52T Mantle hanging around for awhile, longer than 5 years but not necessarily 20 years. My Father owns a 52T Mantle, his prized card in his colection as its part of his 52T set. It is an iconic card, but the 33 Lajoie and t206 wagner are past everyone that watched them play. I dont think you have to watch them play or here stories to collect them...Matty maybe my favorite guy that Ive never seen play. I just think the Mick's aura is sitting real tight w/ people my Dads age compared to Mays, Aaron and Musial who were arguably the 3 greatest players from the golden era. Just my opinion, I just see how my old mans eyes get fired up when the 52T Mantle comes out or I choose to start a conversation with him about the Mick and I cant say the same for any other cards of his...he really likes his t206 cobbys as well, but not the same.

[ullmandds]

Steven...I agree...but when our dads are gone...I don't see mantle rookies continuing to fetch prices in the 4 figures minimum range for beaters...let alone close to 6 figures for high grade.

[rainier2004]

Steven...I agree...but when our dads are gone...I don't see mantle rookies continuing to fetch prices in the 4 figures minimum range for beaters...let alone close to 6 figures for high grade.

Peter - I agree with ya completely. It looks like its just the 2 of us though. I think it will take longer than 5 years for this slide as well, but not 20.

[mark evans]

I think the value of vintage cards will decrease gradually over time, with rarities performing better than more common issues. I think the reasons are two-fold: economic measures taken to address the national debt (tax increases, reduction in 'entitlements'...this is not intended to provoke a political discussion) and aging of baby boomers. On the latter point, I can't help but believe that the value of Mantle cards is directly related to the fact that he was the sports hero of most kids who like myself grew up in the 50s and 60s.

[Brian Van Horn]

I'm hoping to see more guys like Chris and Steve. Another generation needs to be great in numbers.

The one thing less likely to be seen is reasonable pricing.

[Big Ben]

Ok, I'll throw in the unthinkable to some people on this thread. I believe that there will be a rotation away from T206's as the prices of those cards peak.
I very much agree with a previous post about grading firms coming under greater scrutiny.

[cmcclelland]

In general, I believe the long term trend will always be that good vintage sports collectibles will appreciate in value. There will undoubtedly be short term swings up and down, but I believe the long term trend will always be up.

At a minimum, I would expect most quality vintage cards to keep pace with inflation. More likely, I would expect the "good stuff" such as rare pre-war cards and high quality vinatge HOF cards that were produced before the mass production era, will outpace inflation considerably.

As for the 1952 Topps Mantle and Mantle cards in general, I believe they will always be in demand and perform just fine as an investment over time. Did any of us see most of the pre-war HOF players that we place such a high value on play the game? No. I did not see a baseball game until 1976, but I still love to collect cards of famous players going back to 1800's.

Regardless of how this plays out, I would rather have my money in old cardboard than the dollar bills that are being printed by the US Gov't at an astonishing pace. The only thing better would be if baseball cards were printed on precious metals like gold, silver and platinum.

[tbob]

I think the guys like Bruce Crandall and the collectors of highest ended slabbed cards will suffer the most. I also think collectors buying cards like the blue Old Mill will see a serious downward spiral in years to come.
As a baby boomer, I see a time in the next 15-20 years when much of my collection will be sold at auction as will the collections of many other baby boomers. This will depress the prices with a glut of cards coming on the market. The flip side is true collectors will be able to afford more of the cards they love.
I plan on enjoying my cards until the day I pass and hopefully a lot of other collectors will do the same. Personally I don't care if my 1909 Obak set is worth $25,000 or $250. I love the cards and that's why I got in the hobby in the first place. Sure it would be nice to have a nice nest egg for the sunset years but its all about the cardboard- either you love the cards or you don't. :)

[abrahamrudy]

my two cents- I grew up hearing about Mantle, Howard, Ford and the Scooter, but all it took was a little attention to baseball to know who Matty Johnson and Cobb were. Anyone who watched Ken Burns' baseball documentary should revere those names and those of Cap Anson and his contemporaries (character issue aside) as much as any of the greats of the 50s or of today. Perhaps the commons won't be as interesting, but for those collecting whole sets, it won't really matter whether the names are familiar or not.

[rainier2004]

Not to beat a dead horse here, but there are a few arguments about the 52T Mantle, and Mantles in general, rising in price b/c "you don't have to see them play or hear stories about them" and the comparison to 19th century players. The difference is Mantle lovers actually did see him play and hear the stories. I feel that he is more on a pedestal than any other player from that era due to the stories and those that followed his play and his card prices follow. Alright, no more bad talkin the Mick.

[murcerfan]

The bottom will fall out of anything that can't be found in a 5 minute e-bay/google search and bought for under 100 bucks.

The written english language will become unrecognizable and abandoned for text-speak.

[cmcclelland]

Murcerfan sighting - love it!

[ls7plus]

We will be able to buy all the E107s we want at T206 prices in just 30 years.

Ha, Ha! Would that that would be true, but I'm afraid E107 will follow the trend of coins, where rare and significant haven't even really been subject to price cycles. Instead, the price trend over decades for coin series analagous to E107's has pretty much been steadily upwards. Over the next five years or slightly more, I think that the focus will shift somehat from pre WWI cards to the twenties and early thirties, where there are quite a few very scarce to downright rare and significant cards available at mere fractions of the cost of pre WWI.

It's also going to prove to be a good time to buy some of the better (read "rarer" and "high grade") Williams and DiMaggio cards, as they are undervalued compared to Cobb, Ruth, Wagner, Mathewson and the like.

Eventually even key 50's and '60's cards will once again rise in value, perhaps even dramatically, once they begin to be perceived as undervalued in relation to those that preceeded them. There are, however, easily enough of these out there that their prices will be extremely subject to price cycles, going through ups and downs.

And there will be demand for key '80's and even '90's cards--its just that there are so many available that ecomonic principles demand that they will see very slow growth. The '89 Upper Deck Griffey Jr., for example, is a very significant card, but with somewhere around a million of them out there, and most of them in nice shape, the number of collectors seeking that card would have to rise astronomically for it to ever see a really appreciable rise in price. I like the stars and HOF'ers from the Topps Tiffany sets to see their day in the sun, as these were, IMO, the best of the mainstream cards produced during their time period insofar as relative scarcity and card quality are concerned.

Mantle values in general will depend upon whether the current trend to evaluate players based on stats going well beyond such traditional statistics as batting average continues. Those of you that think that Mantle was in any way inferior to either Mays or Aaron, during the time that all of them were playing, will be in for a rude awakening upon consideration of the statistics that more closely approximate run-producing ability. Mantle, for example, created approximately 212% of the runs of an average player per every 27 outs made OVER HIS ENTIRE CAREER during his era (by way of comparison, Lou Gehrig was at 200% for his career, during his more run-prolific era), while Mays and Aaron were in the 170-180% bracket--quite a distant second. While this is admittedly a statistic originating with Bill James, the Mick similarly wipes out the other two in OBPS, .978 for the Mick, compared to .941 for Willie, and .929 for Hank. While Mays and Aaron posted better career numbers due to better longevity, they were really never quite in the same class at producing runs during the time they were active. Mantle simply hit homeruns more often than they did, walked more, and scored more runs per game played (Aaron scored .659 runs per game played; Mays .689, and Mr. Mantle .698 runs per game. As Bill James has said, the number of runs a team will score is directly proportional to the number of runners they get on base. In this vein, Mantle's career on-base-percentage was .421; Mays .384; and Aaron .374. You will also find that if you take a trip to baseballreference.com and use their tool to neutralize for eras, Mantle's stats do not suffer at all in comparison to Gehrig. Given a chance to take any of the three in their prime without regard to longevity, an educated GM would take Mantle every time. I love the other two--they were among the greatest ever--but I'm sorry, they never stood on a level plane with Mickey Mantle in prime time! He was simply the best of his era.

Great thread--sorry I saw it so it so late!

Regards,

Larry

[Texxxx]

In 30-40 years the 1980's to 2000 cards will go up drastically.

We will be getting $.20 a pound for paper to recycle and that will make them worth something.