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zljones
04-24-2012, 12:09 PM
In a earlier thread I started we talked about what determines rarity, I myself developed a whole new insight and will stop using the term "rare" so much.
Now the next similar topic I would like to discuss is population of a card. Although there is no way to get an exact population of a card maybe there can be a formula used to estimate how many ungraded and graded are out there.
What we all know is, is that SGC, BVG, and PSA do not show all their graded cards on their sites. They make mistakes and leave some out. For example I am the proud owner of a N172 portrait Comiskey Browns Champs. Between PSA and SGC they only show 3 copies ever graded. That is incorrect because I own a PSA AUTH Comiskey, and PSA shows zero for Auth grades. Also I discovered a PSA 6 move at one of the auction houses; however, PSA claims zero 6s.
Another thing we know is that there are cards out there in private collections, ungraded, that have never been made public. My question is how many of those secret stashes could possibly be out there? You would think by now most of them would have been sold or somewhat made public, by grading or forum posts. Since the 1970s people have been tracking down cards and many many elderly owners have sold off or given away their collections. My theory is, is that there are not that many secret stashes out there compared to those that are both graded and also changing hands. So that can narrow it down, right? I don't know
Ungraded populations can be tough to pin down. Someone would have to pull Terapeak at least annually and track every card that sold as raw. Then other auctions and online card shops would have to be tracked as well. The best part about those is there are sales records some where. Wouldn't it be great if there was a service or research group that would ask every dealer on the net to share sales records? If so alot of dealers probably would consider that too much work to dig those up.
What I am getting at is, could there be a formula used to estimate the population of certain cards using PSA, SGC, BVG, and GAI population numbers. For example maybe say population is 30 between all four grading companies, then multiply it by 10 to get a rough estimate of the whole population. Then as far as those cards that are more popular that have a higher graded population, maybe divide it by 2 then multiply it by 10 or whatever. I am just making these formulas up as examples. There can also be different formulas for individual sets like T206 is multiplied by 6 and R319 is multiplied by 15.
I hope I do not sound ridiculous, but it kills me wondering how many of my cards are really out there. I do not need an exact number just a closer estimate. I have a hard time digesting the fact that there are less than 10 N172 Comiskey's portrait. Or that there are only like 50,000 89 UD Griffey rookies.

tbob
04-24-2012, 12:41 PM
I think you also need to factor in two additional things: I, like many collectors, have purchased pre-war cards/pins in slabbed holders and have broken them out because as a set collector, some sets I have are in mylar pages, all together. I know my completed tobacco sets (T205, 206, 207, 212, etc.) are all raw in mylar pages; and second, some collectors in order to get higher or better grades will crack the cards out and either re-submit them raw or cross them over to another grading company. Thus the numbers are skewed and may be too high for some tobacco and caramel cards. I have tried to have all my caramel graded and in slabs and for uniformity sake, have craceked out a lot of PSA and GAI holders and had them submitted to SGC for uniformity sake, plus I like their holders better aesthetically.

Northviewcats
04-24-2012, 03:01 PM
Would it be possible to estimate the population of a given card based on the number of collectors who collect graded cards versus ungraded? Let's assume that we did a poll of collectors here on Net54 who collected graded versus raw. Lets say that out of 100 collectors polled--50 collected graded & 35 collected raw & 15 collected both. (I have no idea if this is a correct ratio, we would have to look at the poll, or perhaps do a couple of polls several months apart) Could we then extend the analysis to the combined population reports to get an approximate idea of how many total cards are out there?

As far as the concern about cards that were busted out of holders and not reported back to the population report. You could ask the raw collectors that were polled what percentage of their collection was once in a holder, but now is raw.

Lets say that the combined population report of card A is 100 and the ratio above was confirmed by the poll then there would be 30 more ungraded examples floating around minus the percentage of the once graded cards that have been broken out of slabs. If that number is 5% your estimated population of card A might be:

100 -5 +30 = 125 cards.

I teach English, not Math, and this is making my head hurt.

Best regards,

Joe

ullmandds
04-24-2012, 03:39 PM
Good luck guys...you can figure all of the equations/integrals/theories you want but we will never know exact figures for known examples of any given card...all we have are estimates.

Matt
04-24-2012, 04:10 PM
I would ask - why? What's the point of knowing if there are exactly 37 or 46 of a particular card in existence?

What is of interest to me is relative rarity e.g. that Tris Speaker's V100 is tougher then his M116 and I think pop reports, as they are, are instructive in that conversation because, as a general principal, all the noise mentioned above (resubmissions, mistakes, raw cards, etc.) should apply uniformly across all issues. I acknowledge there are cases where that logic doesn't work (e.g. comparing the pop of Andy Pafko's 1952 Topps to his 1954 Topps would be meaningless).

Seiklis
04-24-2012, 04:17 PM
The one "True" pop report I'd love to see is the 1924 Diaz Cigarettes...I know of one full set out there, and the rest of the cards are just pure blind luck on who exists more than others

zljones
04-24-2012, 07:18 PM
The point is to not get an exact number just an estimated number, right now there is not even a rough estimate out there for anything. I just think a lot of collecters like me would like to know about how many of their card is out there.

zljones
04-24-2012, 07:18 PM
Would it be possible to estimate the population of a given card based on the number of collectors who collect graded cards versus ungraded? Let's assume that we did a poll of collectors here on Net54 who collected graded versus raw. Lets say that out of 100 collectors polled--50 collected graded & 35 collected raw & 15 collected both. (I have no idea if this is a correct ratio, we would have to look at the poll, or perhaps do a couple of polls several months apart) Could we then extend the analysis to the combined population reports to get an approximate idea of how many total cards are out there?

As far as the concern about cards that were busted out of holders and not reported back to the population report. You could ask the raw collectors that were polled what percentage of their collection was once in a holder, but now is raw.

Lets say that the combined population report of card A is 100 and the ratio above was confirmed by the poll then there would be 30 more ungraded examples floating around minus the percentage of the once graded cards that have been broken out of slabs. If that number is 5% your estimated population of card A might be:

100 -5 +30 = 125 cards.

I teach English, not Math, and this is making my head hurt.

Best regards,

Joe

+1 I like your theory of how to get a estimated population

rainier2004
04-24-2012, 07:43 PM
Zach - I like the though, am a son of CPA, but I think a little creative thinking would be in order here vs a true formula. I.e. a Cracker Jack Joe jacskon would have a MUCH higher percentage of cards graded vesus raw comparing to a common card. Compare that to say a 1934 goudey hank greenberg...more cards, smaller percent graded with probably more sitting in private collections, undisclosed as well. I would think some cards, like an e107, would have nearly 100% in slabs. Sooo many variables involved. Your formula would have to include these varibales...complicated at best. Good luck!

zljones
04-24-2012, 09:01 PM
Zach - I like the though, am a son of CPA, but I think a little creative thinking would be in order here vs a true formula. I.e. a Cracker Jack Joe jacskon would have a MUCH higher percentage of cards graded vesus raw comparing to a common card. Compare that to say a 1934 goudey hank greenberg...more cards, smaller percent graded with probably more sitting in private collections, undisclosed as well. I would think some cards, like an e107, would have nearly 100% in slabs. Sooo many variables involved. Your formula would have to include these varibales...complicated at best. Good luck!

Indeed I am not that great at math so I don't know if I could ever embark in this type of adventure. It would definately be something that would have to take in several factors, it would probably be best just to track prewar only.

mets41
04-25-2012, 10:44 PM
Where do you want to factor in some of I have? During the pre-grading card companies era I worked on the sets I collected as a kid and lost in a family move. These cards (1960-64 Topps, Fleer, and Leaf) were purchased raw and never graded.

doug.goodman
04-26-2012, 12:30 AM
I am constantly amazed at how the portion of the world population that grades cards seems to think that the "population" of those cards somehow has a correlation to the amount of cards in existence.

Maybe I'm completely wrong...

BUT...

It is my opinion that, on the average, most people who own any given card, have not had that card graded.

I may be wrong.

But, I doubt it.

With all best wishes to all persons who collect or possess any card either graded or raw,
Doug

glchen
04-26-2012, 12:08 PM
Like others have said, very valuable cards are much more likely to be slabbed than commons. Few would grade a beater t206 Heinie Wagner but many Honus Wagners would be graded.

zljones
04-26-2012, 02:15 PM
So I guess the conclusion is, is that getting a general population (not exact) is just a dream and can be never accomplished. I thought it could be accomplished by one pulling sales records from all over the place throughout the past few years. And also by maybe doing a poll like Northviewcats Suggested. I would do all this but I do not have the time or the patience. O well

glchen
04-26-2012, 05:52 PM
I think the rough estimate that I like to use especially for cards that are in sets is take the card that is most likely to be graded (that is not short printed or double printed), add the pops of the three major TPG's (PSA/SGC/BVG), and then double it to take into account raw cards. For example, if there are a total of 500 graded 1933 Goudey #149 Babe Ruth's, I would double that to say that, in general, there would be 1000 copies of every 1933 Goudey that is not short printed (e.g., low numbers) or double printed (e.g., #144 Ruth). These high value superstar cards are much more likely to be graded, so the pop reports will give you a more accurate reflection of the commons. For example, in a set such as the 1928 Harrington Ice cream, there are 22 Ruth's in the PSA pop report, but only 1 Joe Dugan. Is that because Harrington printed 20X more Ruth's than all of the all players? Very doubtful and it's most likely that there are also 20+ Joe Dugans out there, but just haven't been graded because it's not worth the grading fee.

Of course, some will say that there are more Ruth's than Dugan's out there because kids and other collectors back then would be much more likely to keep their Ruth cards and toss away their Dugan's. Therefore, HOFer's and others like Ruth would be more likely to survive to this day.

ScottFandango
04-27-2012, 01:08 PM
i know there are OLD SCHOOL collectors who dont like plastic....

but you cant tell me these collectors are cracking out VALUABLE CARDS and putting them in mylar sleeves..that would be assinine...

not only does that immeadiately lower the value of the collectible, but it puts it back in harms way...

so using the POP reports for rare cards is a good idea because these will be VERY ACCURATE...

no intelligent person is deslabbing a RARE VALUABLE CARD..NOT DONE!