PDA

View Full Version : Wow - Modern Card


Matt
05-21-2010, 04:48 PM
I was just chatting with a friend who mentioned to me he thought this card would end over $20k.
http://cgi.ebay.com/2010-BOWMAN-CHROME-SUPERFRACTOR-STEPHEN-STRASBURG-1-1_W0QQitemZ190398394834QQcategoryZ213QQcmdZViewIte m

I think it's good every once and a while to get a wake-up call like that about other parts of our hobby. I couldn't fathom spending that on a card just made a few months ago, but apparently many people would.

doug.goodman
05-21-2010, 04:57 PM
Brien Taylor

brickyardkennedy
05-21-2010, 05:01 PM
Yes, but would you trade your entire collection for it? :D

David W
05-21-2010, 05:12 PM
I wonder what this went for 8 years ago. Mark Prior

http://cgi.ebay.com/01-DONRUSS-ELITE-MARK-PRIOR-RECOLLECTION-XRC-AUTO-10-/370307447996?cmd=ViewItem&pt=US_Baseball&hash=item56380b3cbc

Jim VB
05-21-2010, 05:28 PM
There is a great line buried in the description by this seller.


"All cards are Nmt/Mt Or better unless professionally graded."



I guess that comment might sway a few votes in the grading poll. :D

Peter_Spaeth
05-21-2010, 05:39 PM
I don't understand the concept of manufactured scarcity. Who cares??

Steve D
05-21-2010, 05:45 PM
Let's see.....

David Clyde.....Mark Fidrych.....Mark Prior.....Kerry Wood.....Joe Jay.....Herb Score.....Todd Van Poppel.....Ben McDonald.....

Hopefully not, but you just never know.


Steve

fkw
05-21-2010, 05:48 PM
Ive been watching it for a couple days now, Collector Weekly says it now has "880 watchers" on eBay.

Actually 5 out of the top 6 "Most Watched" cards are 2010 Strasburg's

FUBAR
05-21-2010, 05:55 PM
I could amass a fairly decent collection for that type of money.

A few words to the buyer.... A fool and his money are soon parted! To the seller, congrats on winning a ridiculous lottery!

ichieh
05-21-2010, 06:06 PM
It's all hyped. Who know, perhaps there are shill biddings

mark evans
05-21-2010, 06:08 PM
Totally unreal, by my way of thinking. Even assuming Strasberg becomes a phenom (and since I share in Nats season tix, I certainly hope he does), he will sign so many cards during the next five years that I can't imagine this one retaining its value.

Perhaps it's too soon to track re-sales of high-priced insert cards with manufactured scarcity (I recall a LeBron card that sold for a small fortune), but I would suspect that their values decrease significantly over time.

Mark

barrysloate
05-21-2010, 06:10 PM
Whatever this one sells for will likely be the highest price it ever achieves. It can only go down from here.

D. Bergin
05-21-2010, 06:20 PM
Let's see.....

David Clyde.....Mark Fidrych.....Mark Prior.....Kerry Wood.....Joe Jay.....Herb Score.....Todd Van Poppel.....Ben McDonald.....

Hopefully not, but you just never know.


Steve


Hell, even if he became the next Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Pedro Martinez or Tom Seaver, I can't really see the justification.

God forbid he only turns into a Don Sutton, Jack Morris or Fergie Jenkins.

pgellis
05-21-2010, 06:29 PM
Hell, even if he became the next Nolan Ryan, Roger Clemens, Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Pedro Martinez or Tom Seaver, I can't really see the justification.

God forbid he only turns into a Don Sutton, Jack Morris or Fergie Jenkins.

I agree....over the years it was fun to speculate on upcoming talent and getting something from them early, but if you have to spend 10K for something , that is not getting him early.

Unfortunately, I have learned my lesson and if I want to add a memorabilia piece or autographed piece to my collection, they HAVE to be in the HOF or headed there.....very few exceptions. I once passed on Gale Sayers at an autograph show for Erict Rhett, TB...........what a dum dum.

GIDDY UP!

Peter_Spaeth
05-21-2010, 06:40 PM
It isn't even his rookie card, I looked on ebay and he has cards from 2008. :confused::confused:

e.g., http://cgi.ebay.com/STEPHEN-STRASBURG-08-UPPER-DECK-TEAM-USA-ROOKIE-BGS-9-5-/220609330397?cmd=ViewItem&pt=US_Baseball&hash=item335d573cdd

HRBAKER
05-21-2010, 06:51 PM
I don't think this has a happy ending for whoever wins this. :eek:

whycough
05-21-2010, 07:11 PM
Saw highlights of him pitching last night in the minors: wicked stuff! Ah, no on the card. Ugly card too!:eek:

J.McMurry
05-21-2010, 07:16 PM
Sounds like the second coming of Gregg Jeffries:)

mintacular
05-21-2010, 07:48 PM
Hey, look at the upside, you'd get $162 eBay bucks if you win :)

jeffshep
05-21-2010, 07:56 PM
1 of 1 and they can't even get the centering perfect? That thing should grade an 11, step it up Topps.

JP
05-21-2010, 08:02 PM
Hasn't this piece of crap already been talked about (and moved by Leon) from this VINTAGE card forum? Honestly wouldn't pay more than $5 for it...is this being advertised by the seller in these forums?

fkw
05-21-2010, 08:22 PM
Once ever few years these cards come around, its fun to watch the bidding.

Even the non 1/1 Strasburg cards (there are others too) are getting good bids.

Wonder if "Merkle" (K.O.) wins this shiny 1/1..... he has been known to win some of these newer "hype" cards in the past. Like that Gordon thing a couple years back.

PS there are 968 watchers now, how many of them are you guys :)

sportscardtheory
05-21-2010, 08:26 PM
Hasn't this piece of crap already been talked about (and moved by Leon) from this VINTAGE card forum? Honestly wouldn't pay more than $5 for it...is this being advertised by the seller in these forums?

Can you say CLOSE MINDED. Quite an infantile display if you ask me.

If you wouldn't pay more than $5 for it, that would be pretty dumb considering it will sell for over $10,000.

fkw
05-21-2010, 08:48 PM
Speaking of phenoms....

Here is a card that just ended, this 17 year old kid has not even been drafted yet... But he will be a great player Im sure...
http://cgi.ebay.com/2010-Bowman-Chrome-Orange-Bryce-Harper-Rc-Ref-25-25_W0QQitemZ270579237416


if you dont know Bryce Harper, read about him

Sports Illustrated article
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1156215/index.htm

Strasburg wasnt even drafted out of HS!
Harper left HS 2 years early to get Drafted (next month, he will be #1).
I like the part where "he went 12 for 12 with 11 HRs and a Double"

prewarsports
05-21-2010, 08:50 PM
Pretty crazy, but I would rather have that card than many of the high grade vintage PSA 9's and 10's which are trimmed. A 1965 Topps leader card sold PSA 10 for $120,000+ a few years back. That is MUCH crazier to me than the Strasburg.

Rob D.
05-21-2010, 08:53 PM
Maybe the buyer will post it here, ask for opinions, say how much he's going to enjoy it, then consign it a week later to an auction house.

HRBAKER
05-21-2010, 08:56 PM
Maybe the buyer will post it here, ask for opinions, say how much he's going to enjoy it, then consign it a week later to an auction house.


.....but please, not before he has it graded!

Orioles1954
05-21-2010, 08:57 PM
Us pre-war collectors like to feel we call the shots in the hobby. But probably 80% or more of hobbyists are exclusively shiny.....and that's where the money's at. What's interesting to me though is that most shiny collector's I've communicated with are more open minded and appreciative of pre-war than the other way around.

4815162342
05-21-2010, 09:01 PM
Pretty crazy, but I would rather have that card than many of the high grade vintage PSA 9's and 10's which are trimmed. A 1965 Topps leader card sold PSA 10 for $120,000+ a few years back. That is MUCH crazier to me than the Strasburg.

Did you type a few too many zeroes? $120,000 is crazy!

Peter_Spaeth
05-21-2010, 09:05 PM
Maybe the buyer will post it here, ask for opinions, say how much he's going to enjoy it, then consign it a week later to an auction house.

Ichieh, sell that Rose and go for it, bro'. :D:D

ctownboy
05-21-2010, 09:15 PM
orioles,

That is probably because a lot of people who collect pre-war cards have gotten BURNED in the past 20 years by the shiny crap. They have learned their lesson by LOSING money.

Wait 10 to 20 years and see how many of the collectors of these shiny cards are STILL collecting and then see WHAT they are collecting. My guess is that a LOT will have STOPPED collecting because they got burned by the hype and overproduction of the cards.

Imagine this Strasburg card selling for $15,000 dollars and then a year later it selling for $10,000 (or less). Imagine if a "regular" collector (not a guy like Keith Olbermann) paid the big bucks for the card thinking he would be able to sell it for a higher amount later.

It doesn't (or shouldn't, any way) take too many bad experiences like that for a collector to get burned out and either quit collecting altogether or switch to something that is enjoyable and at least holds its value better (pre-war cards, for example).

David

kmac32
05-21-2010, 09:18 PM
Zzzzzzzzzz.......zzzzzzzzzzz

sportscardtheory
05-21-2010, 09:57 PM
Us pre-war collectors like to feel we call the shots in the hobby. But probably 80% or more of hobbyists are exclusively shiny.....and that's where the money's at. What's interesting to me though is that most shiny collector's I've communicated with are more open minded and appreciative of pre-war than the other way around.

Good point. I love all cards, vintage and new. It's amusing how "snobbish" some vintage collectors can be. They act as if new stuff is just trash, even when a card from 2010 can pull $10,000. That's impressive to me, not crazy. I'll take vintage graded HOFers all day long over that Strasburg, but I'm not going to sit here and act like it's not amazing that it will get over 10-grand.

tbob
05-21-2010, 10:07 PM
Two words for anyone over 40 years old: Joe Charboneau.

mark evans
05-21-2010, 11:14 PM
There's nothing wrong with collecting new issues, and there's nothing wrong with someone paying $ 10,000 for a Strasburg card.

If, however, the buyer is motivated to buy the card (in whole or part) as an investment, then he hopes it will increase in value over time. I suspect that high-priced insert cards, as a rule, decrease in value over time, but that's just a guess. I would be curious to see any data regarding re-sale of these kinds of cards.

FUBAR
05-22-2010, 12:11 AM
I do open some shinies now and then, if i pulled that card, i wouldn't enjoy it... id enjoy the ridiculous amounts of cash alot more, after i sold it of course.

i generally dont sell my cards, but with shiny ones, i never get too attached to most of them. With the exception of my UFC cards and my Peyton collection.

Rich Klein
05-22-2010, 03:56 AM
Us pre-war collectors like to feel we call the shots in the hobby. But probably 80% or more of hobbyists are exclusively shiny.....and that's where the money's at. What's interesting to me though is that most shiny collector's I've communicated with are more open minded and appreciative of pre-war than the other way around.


It's probably 90-95 percent shiny; and when you go to a show, that is the only time that you see a larger percentage of vintage collectors. And of course, the catalog auctions are heavily vintage as well

Leon
05-22-2010, 07:17 AM
It's probably 90-95 percent shiny; and when you go to a show, that is the only time that you see a larger percentage of vintage collectors. And of course, the catalog auctions are heavily vintage as well

Rich- My understanding and view is that you are closer with the 95% than the 90%, as far as shiny to vintage. I would guess we (pre war) hold less than a 5% stake in collector population. However, I would guess we have more staying power.:eek: (almost went for a joke but better not)

calvindog
05-22-2010, 07:26 AM
Maybe the buyer will post it here, ask for opinions, say how much he's going to enjoy it, then consign it a week later to an auction house.

Yes, those collectors of shiny cards have no soul!

Fred
05-22-2010, 07:31 AM
Leon, I couldn't imagine what joke you would have went for....

From the scan that card looks like one of those early 1970s era Kelloggs 3-D cards.

Conspiracy theory - no, it's not the magic bullet theory, it's much more simple than that. Bowman (or who ever owns that company now) is placing shill bids on this card in an effor to draw attention to the auction so that people think this garbage is actually worth something. Future sales driven by mindless idiots purchasing their other products (in hopes of finding the next $20K card in a $4 pack) is the driving force behind the shill bids.

If you don't hear from me anymore then that means that the Bowman folks have sent someone over to my house to extinguish the source of their exposure... gonna be a good day... only 630AM and I'll be working on a third Martini...

M's_Fan
05-22-2010, 08:08 AM
1 of 1 and they can't even get the centering perfect? That thing should grade an 11, step it up Topps.


Seriously, that is embarrassing they didn't get the centering right.

I would guess that there are a few test versions of this card floating around in some Bowman employee's desk, it wouldn't be a fun day for the ultimate recipient of this card if some of those surfaced...

tidbit: no #1 overall draft pick has ever won a cy young award.

ChiefBenderForever
05-22-2010, 08:19 AM
When these cards come up I always think about the guy who traded/sold his whole collection in pursuit to pick up every Rick Ankiel RC numbered to 100. It was the hot card at the time and going for decent money, I wonder if he is still working on them ?

Section103
05-22-2010, 09:14 AM
My $0.02 worth of pop-psychology for the day - Im going to guess (and hope) that the buyers of such items are taken in by the allure of the card, the potential of the player and the relative hobby status that comes with owning one of these "it" cards. I dont think many of these cards go to cool, calculated business men who see it as an upside-potential, retirement-setting money maker. Cool calculated business men know that anything (anywhere - Im looking at you gold buyers of the 70s, certain IPO stock buyers of the 80s, house flippers of the 00s) that has been hyped has already lost it's investment potential.

D. Bergin
05-22-2010, 09:25 AM
1 of 1 and they can't even get the centering perfect? That thing should grade an 11, step it up Topps.


Well, I guess the upside for the lucky buyer is.........even if he were to put it in his bicycle spokes, it would still be the highest graded card of it's type, extant.


;)

GrayGhost
05-22-2010, 09:31 AM
Fake Scarcity is all it is. Make everyone pay big bucks to try and pull the miracle. That price is ridiculous. I do hope the kid makes it tho, and I hope to see him pitch on tv at some point this year.

Maybe its my age, and my two stages of pack opening. As a real little one starting in 69, and playing the scratchoff games w my friend in 1970 packs, and then trading the coins in 71. Later, in 78 when I got back into it, playing whiffle ball and riding my bike w my friend Chris to 7-11 and buying 78 wax packs by the handful. and constantly seeing Woody Fryman, and screaming when one of those "trophy cards" came out. haha.

Now, I still love the hobby and seeing a great item, but I see the new cards really are just "lottery now". The thrill of building a set, etc. seems to be gone. And yes, the Strasburg card itself.If I had 8000+ to spend on sports stuff, Id buy cool memorabilia or some awesome tobacco cards, not a single card that can blind you for life when the reflection off the sun hits your eyes.

2dueces
05-22-2010, 10:07 AM
I hear that guy Ty Cobb is going to be something. Might want to pick up a few of his cards for that kind of money in case he makes it big. :)

teetwoohsix
05-22-2010, 10:33 AM
Somebody help me on this please........is the price because of the "1 of 1",,,,,or because of the player on it,and the "1 of 1"?

I only ask because there is probably another version of this card,maybe missing one part of the shiny element,and #'d "1 of 5,000",,,,,,right?

And maybe another version,with no #'s,that may be the identical card,but worth nothing minus the serial #'s...........

Clayton

FUBAR
05-22-2010, 10:42 AM
there are other versions of it, they will be slightly different, probably a different color or no refractor or something, I bet there are minimum 5 tiers of this same card. It is done in most sets, they put 1 of 1 press plates or parallels, it is a marketing tool and works very well for the card companies.

Bets card i ever pulled was a Messier Auto jersey #/ 25 which i sold on the bay for $625 usd at the time when the dollar was at .63 so around $900 cdn. Not bad for a card i won in a pack war.

sportscardtheory
05-22-2010, 10:45 AM
Superfractors are the very pinnacle of modern baseball card collecting. This is the best card anyone will ever own of Strasburg. The only difference between the million+ dollar 1/1 PSA 8 T206 Wagner is the fact that Wagner is a Hall of Famer. This is peanuts compared to the Wagner. What's crazier, the fact that someone would pay over a million dollars for one card or over $10,000.

Peter_Spaeth
05-22-2010, 10:45 AM
Clayton you are missing the point, this is the super platinum chrome ultra refractor metal multiple orgasm 1/1 rookie card (well, third year card if you count his 08 rookie cards) of the greatest pitcher of all time (ok, he has yet to pitch an inning, but whatever).

FUBAR
05-22-2010, 10:48 AM
this is the super platinum chrome ultra refractor metal multiple orgasm 1/1 rookie card

that is funny stuff!

BCauley
05-22-2010, 10:49 AM
Superfractors are the very pinnacle of modern baseball card collecting. This is the best card anyone will ever own of Strasburg. The only difference between the million+ dollar 1/1 PSA 8 T206 Wagner is the fact that Wagner is a Hall of Famer. This is peanuts compared to the Wagner. What's crazier, the fact that someone would pay over a million dollars for one card or over $10,000.

What's crazier? I would have to go with spending $10K on a card of a player who has yet to play a game in the big leagues.

Just my $.02.

sportscardtheory
05-22-2010, 10:50 AM
Clayton you are missing the point, this is the super platinum chrome ultra refractor metal multiple orgasm 1/1 rookie card (well, third year card if you count his 08 rookie cards) of the greatest pitcher of all time (ok, he has yet to pitch an inning, but whatever).

Baseball cards are subjective, so I don't understand the hate towards modern card collecting/cards. People buy what they want, just as you do. I'm fairly certain hardly any modern collectors would give you grief over spending some insane price for a vintage common you need for a set. How much money have you spent on common non-Hall of Famer vintage cards. What's the difference.

teetwoohsix
05-22-2010, 10:56 AM
:D:D Thanks Peter,I didn't realize it was the multiple orgasm refractor-that explains it,and it all makes sense now :D

Thanks again,Clayton

Peter_Spaeth
05-22-2010, 11:10 AM
Baseball cards are subjective, so I don't understand the hate towards modern card collecting/cards. People buy what they want, just as you do. I'm fairly certain hardly any modern collectors would give you grief over spending some insane price for a vintage common you need for a set. How much money have you spent on common non-Hall of Famer vintage cards. What's the difference.

Actually I kinda agree with you on commons, as I am not a set builder.

ChiefBenderForever
05-22-2010, 11:14 AM
Is there really such a thing as a prewar common ?

Rob D.
05-22-2010, 11:53 AM
My guess is many of the posts that ridicule the collecting of modern cards are made by folks who collect graded, pre-war cards. And some of these folks probably don't appreciate posts in other threads by the faction of Net54 that thinks collectors who prefer graded cards aren't real collectors or are "slab collectors, not card collectors."

So, to recap, it's not OK to criticize collectors who prefer graded cards over raw ones, but it is perfectly fine to criticize collectors who choose to spend their money on modern cards instead of pre-war or vintage issues.

sox1903wschamp
05-22-2010, 12:06 PM
Pretty crazy, but I would rather have that card than many of the high grade vintage PSA 9's and 10's which are trimmed. A 1965 Topps leader card sold PSA 10 for $120,000+ a few years back. That is MUCH crazier to me than the Strasburg.

Seriously? Now there is some serious disposable discretionary income at work.

HRBAKER
05-22-2010, 12:35 PM
I would have to think that these folks are willing to lay out $10,000+ just to say they had the "only" one. I can't think that they seriously think of it as an investment. Hell he's a pitcher and besides the fact he hasn't thrown the first pitch in the majors yet he could be one serious arm injury away from amounting to nada.

I wonder if his mother still has her first ultrasound image of him, now there's a real rookie for ya!

BCauley
05-22-2010, 01:08 PM
I'm curious if the person who wins it intends on holding it for a short period of time to do a flip. Granted, it could be a gamble but for during the first game or two, I doubt it. Guy comes up, throws a great first game or two, and throw it back up for hopefully a profitable flip.

In any event, to each his own. There are just way too many facets to this hobby to say one is wrong/dumb and the other is right/smart. Whatever makes someone happy with the hobby is OK in my book.

JamesGallo
05-22-2010, 03:23 PM
Just as an FYI his 08 cards are minor league cards. This is his true rookie card and as mentioned before this is THE card everyone wants. Yes there are plenty of different versions on this card but even the base chrome card is going for around $25-30 which is nuts for something out of a brand new product without an autograph.

No one seems to complain about Pujols rookie autograph rookie cards which sell for $5000+ all that time. LeBron has some crazy expensive cards like $15K+++ it's just the nature of the beast.

James G

barrysloate
05-22-2010, 04:42 PM
Since I know absolutely nothing about modern cards, may I ask how did the seller find this apparently unique card? Did he open a pack and hit the jackpot? How are these distributed?

ichieh
05-22-2010, 04:47 PM
To average folks (meaning those who don't collect sports cards) we are all insane because we are willing to pay hundreds, if not thousands of dollar for a piece of cardboard, whether it's 1/1 modern card, or rare vintage cards.

Peter_Spaeth
05-22-2010, 04:54 PM
Just as an FYI his 08 cards are minor league cards. This is his true rookie card and as mentioned before this is THE card everyone wants. Yes there are plenty of different versions on this card but even the base chrome card is going for around $25-30 which is nuts for something out of a brand new product without an autograph.

No one seems to complain about Pujols rookie autograph rookie cards which sell for $5000+ all that time. LeBron has some crazy expensive cards like $15K+++ it's just the nature of the beast.

James G

So James does that mean an 85 Topps McGwire is a minor league card? Wasn't that a Team USA card too? Not sure I understand the difference, particularly where the major companies for years have been making cards of all these guys long before they are in the majors.

Peter_Spaeth
05-22-2010, 04:57 PM
To average folks (meaning those who don't collect sports cards) we are all insane because we are willing to pay hundreds, if not thousands of dollar for a piece of cardboard, whether it's 1/1 modern card, or rare vintage cards.

Fair enough, but it seems to me there is a difference between buying a card of a HOFer and just speculating on a kid who has never thrown a pitch in the majors -- particularly where the "scarcity" of the card is completely artificial as a result of a deliberate manufacturing decision.

BCauley
05-22-2010, 05:07 PM
Since I know absolutely nothing about modern cards, may I ask how did the seller find this apparently unique card? Did he open a pack and hit the jackpot? How are these distributed?

Barry,
I hang around another site that caters to the "prospector" and the guy selling this particular card posted his "hit" on that site. If I remember correctly, he purchased a case of the product and got this one in there. I do not know the insertion rate of these superfractor 1/1 cards but I would guess one per case.

I stopped picking up modern (Though I do want a Mauer RC) but still like to hang around the other site and see what people are getting. It's all interesting to me.

barrysloate
05-22-2010, 05:22 PM
Thanks Bill. So it's kind of like finding a lottery ticket.

One thing that strikes me odd is that there is a history of these unique or nearly unique multi-thousand dollar cards going back to the 1990's. And if I am correct nearly all of them turn out to be worth a fraction of the purchase price, or in some cases become virtually worthless. Given that fact, why do people keep spending such insane amounts for them? Do any of these $10,000+ cards actually increase in value over the years? It's easy to say people can collect whatever they want and pay whatever they think something is worth, but nobody likes to see their $10,000 card one day be worth fifty bucks.

BCauley
05-22-2010, 06:05 PM
Thanks Bill. So it's kind of like finding a lottery ticket.

One thing that strikes me odd is that there is a history of these unique or nearly unique multi-thousand dollar cards going back to the 1990's. And if I am correct nearly all of them turn out to be worth a fraction of the purchase price, or in some cases become virtually worthless. Given that fact, why do people keep spending such insane amounts for them? Do any of these $10,000+ cards actually increase in value over the years? It's easy to say people can collect whatever they want and pay whatever they think something is worth, but nobody likes to see their $10,000 card one day be worth fifty bucks.

Pretty much like the lottery.

The only thing I can think of as to why this is going so high is the potential buyer wants to get it before he makes it to the pros and hope that Strasburg has a big couple of initial games. After that, maybe he can flip it for more. That is just a guess to me though, I never got into the prospecting end of things.

I've never seen any modern cards sell like this initially and then keep going up. I guess the Pujols Bowman Chrome autographed rookie card goes against that grain but other than that, I can't think of anything and I don't even remember if that card sold highly at the outset. I do know that card was a redemption.

To go back and answer why people continue to drop money on cards knowing that past history shows them dropping? I can only think that they believe the card they are after THIS time will be different.

barrysloate
05-22-2010, 06:50 PM
I guess everybody likes to think they are a little smarter than the next guy.

slidekellyslide
05-22-2010, 08:26 PM
I guess everybody likes to think they are a little smarter than the next guy.

Or, some guys just like to blow money because they can. Every day people pay a lot of money for brand new vehicles that they know will depreciate as soon as they leave the car lot. There are people who spend what I would call outrageous prices for a bottle of wine that they intend to drink....Maybe the buyer of this card doesn't care if it depreciates? I also doubt the buyer will look to flip right away...if he's smart he knows that taking himself out of the equation probably already makes it a sure loser.

Matt
05-22-2010, 08:33 PM
I am just thankful that a guy with such disposable income is not in the pre-war market competing with me for cards I want. IMO, there is a 50/50 shot that this card isn't worth more then $100 in 10 years.

slidekellyslide
05-22-2010, 08:35 PM
I am just thankful that a guy with such disposable income is not in the pre-war market competing with me for cards I want. IMO, there is a 50/50 shot that this card isn't worth more then $100 in 10 years.

I've found plenty of guys with what seems like unlimited funds collecting pre-war cards. :(

Matt
05-22-2010, 08:40 PM
I've found plenty of guys with what seems like unlimited funds collecting pre-war cards. :(

Me too - I'm just glad this fellow doesn't make it 1 more :)

slidekellyslide
05-22-2010, 08:43 PM
Me too - I'm just glad this fellow doesn't make it 1 more :)

Could be one of those rare birds that collects shiny and vintage.

Rich Klein
05-23-2010, 05:43 AM
I think Leon was going for a line similar to the vintage collectors are like a pimiple on an elephant's butt (and when I googled that line, there is actually a legit term for that expression) in terms of the overall part of the card market. If he had another line in mind; let's hear it -- :)

And the psychology of buying cards like this is actually pretty simple. Everyone wants to be proven right, and when the new card market was actually like a mini stock market in the late 80's-early 90's everyone remembered when they hit on players like Cecil Fielder who went from 3 cent obscurity to $3 overnight in 1990 and forgot the Gregg Jeffries mess when his 1988 Donruss went from a market high of $10 early in 1988 to the quarter it books for today (and the real worth is less than that)

You always remember the hits; not the stiffs and the memory of the hits is what keeps you going in this "prospector" game.

We always talk here (at least some of us) about being just caretakers of these cards; well, the new card people in many cases move those cards even quicker. And that is still true today. About 2004; anything unopened 2001 was HOT because of two players: Prior and Pujols. Prior, well he never was the same after 2003. Pijols, assuming nothing ever comes out about HGH or anything else, is now eligible for the HOF and will make the HOF and on the 1st ballot when his time comes.

So, even in 2004; with players with SOME experience, you still had the 50/50 shot.

At a local store in 1984; just as the season began, I remember a person saying he was going for the Mets and wasn't really interested in Mattingly. By the end of the year; he realized he blew that opportunity. It happens, you hit on some and lose on some. But to got back, you ALWAYS remember the winners


Rich

Matt
05-23-2010, 05:54 AM
Rich - the thing is, that even if Jeffries made the HOF, that card wouldn't be worth $10 nowadays. Same here - I can't fathom this card could possibly be worth $20k 20 years from now, even if the guy is the second coming of Tom Seaver. So, even when you guess correctly and "win" you still lose.

Rich Klein
05-23-2010, 06:39 AM
In reality the point is to "win" about the player's performance and remember that you won about how the player did on the field. As it turned out, with very rare exceptions; cards from the over produced era (87-94) are not worth nearly as much as they were back in those days. In fact; the standard buy price for a collection from that era is 10 for a penny. I looked at a collection of nearly 800K cards a few weeks ago and the seller originally wanted 30K and eventually realized within a couple of hours that $1500 was all he would ever get and although they did not get sold; he will spend more in storage over the years than just getting out of those cards.

It's about the turn over and yes the 88 Donruss Jeffries, which in early 88 sold for $10 in the NY area; is part of a set which you can purchase for less than that individual price.

I think it will take about 30 more years to clean up that over produced mess and we'll probably have landfills before these cards ever come close to those values again

barrysloate
05-23-2010, 06:52 AM
The card is currently at $9200 with nearly a week left to go- yikes!!

And the high bidder is a 0 feedback guy. That makes you wonder....

JP
05-23-2010, 11:44 AM
It doesn't make me wonder. It just proves you can register for eBay while inebriated!

hunterdutchess
05-23-2010, 12:00 PM
I put a link to this card when it was at a $20,000 bin. For a joke I asked what would you rather have this Strasburgh or a 1951 Bowman Mantle SGC 8 (they both are asking for the same price). I was just trying to show how stupid modern rookie card collecting can be for a card that has a player with no MLB experience. Even if he is the next Koufax this card will be worth less than half of what it goes for 10 years from now. Its like buying a brand new car, it will never hold it's value.

Exhibitman
05-23-2010, 12:01 PM
It is only stupid if you can't sell it to the next sucker. Sorta like a CDO...

Tex
05-23-2010, 01:59 PM
Heh, a nice example of how modern card packs are just lottery tickets for all ages.

Boccabella
05-23-2010, 05:18 PM
The market for this stuff is far bigger than most think. While it doesn't make a lot of sense on the whole, some of the super high grade 1980s 'classic' rookie cards ('76 Walter Payton, '81 Montana, '79-80 Bird/Magic, etc) are where the interest lies for those who remember those players from childhood and the hotshots with a lot of money would rather spend it on something they have an emotional tie to.

The current card 1-1 shiny market is another branch of that. They've totally bought in to the concept and while they may lose big once in awhile, the wins are enough to keep them working it. Those 1-1s have completely changed the rookie card market.

Again, it doesn't make a lot of sense (I keep thinking "Mark Prior") but it's a very active, vibrant part of the hobby. I think the collectors/speculators of that market do appreciate the pre-War stuff very much, but for a variety of reasons (accessibility to product being one), this is what they spend most of their time chasing.

dstraate
05-24-2010, 01:35 PM
So a quick question... Was this card pulled from a pack, auctioned pre-circulation, or what?

I'd like to think some 8 year old just paid for a year at community college with this thing.

Back in the day I was trying to pull $20 Griffey Jr. Rookies. My how the times change.

fkw
05-24-2010, 02:04 PM
Here is a link to the guy first posting he is putting it on eBay. I believe he pulled it from some collector box/pack thing.

http://www.freedomcardboard.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=90243

I dont collect or like the new stuff, but I like to follow these bigger events.

IMO like others said, the first time this card sells will be the most it ever sells for. Even if Strasburg becomes the best ML pitcher ever!


PS.Collectors Weekly says the Card has 1897 watchers now.

marvjung
05-24-2010, 02:17 PM
So a quick question... Was this card pulled from a pack, auctioned pre-circulation, or what?

I'd like to think some 8 year old just paid for a year at community college with this thing.

Back in the day I was trying to pull $20 Griffey Jr. Rookies. My how the times change.

The card was pulled from what's called a jumbo case; so instead of the conventional packs that you would find, the packs that this particular card was pulled from had about twice the normal number of cards you would find in a standard pack.

I spoke to a cardshop owner over the weekend and I think there's more to this than what meets the eye; more specifically, supply vs demand. As I spoke to him, the jumbo boxes/cases apparently have skyrocketed in cost after release. They were released at about $100 per box, but now command nearly $200 per box. Also, the increase in price in the secondary market occurred as for whatever reason, large quantity of the Bowman cards were not purchased by dealers, thereby creating a limited amount of product released. (although without actual production numbers from Topps, this is questionable)

One other thing about Bowman which hasn't been mentioned yet is that Topps releases the Bowman product with the moniker, "Home of the rookie card" label. I don't buy very much modern day stuff, but when I do, it's usually Bowman. In addition to modern day players, there's several players that are up and coming.

As per the modern day marketing etiquette, Bowman has base cards, then cards with different borders (refractor, super refractor, x-fractor) and then couples the rarity with the insertion of autographs. Of course, this material is released based on odds - as mentioned in several posts before, much like a lottery (1 in 1000 chance for a refractor, 1 in 10,000 chance for an super refractor).

So there are several variables that make the Straussburg card so valuable to modern day collectors:

1. Considered first TRUE rookie card (although he had an earlier release).
2. It's a x-refractor labeled at 1/1.
3. Speculators like him

Lastly, back in the day as I was leaving the hobby, 1992 to be more specific, Topps had a hit on their hands with the Bowman product released then - Manny Ramirez, Mike Piazza rookies - all skyrocketing because it was a great product with supposed limited release. Many liken the 2010 Bowman product to the 1992 release.

Personally, I'm sticking with the pre-war stuff (I just bought my first Magee - corrected - card and I'm super excited about it - probably far more excited about that card than the Straussburg - and quite frankly, if I had obtained that card, I would have it shoved up on Ebay too - to buy more pre-war :D )

slidekellyslide
05-24-2010, 02:23 PM
I would think the news of this Strasburg card already being pulled from a pack would cause lower demand for the product.

Someone already won the lottery.

marvjung
05-24-2010, 02:28 PM
I would think the news of this Strasburg card already being pulled from a pack would cause lower demand for the product.

Someone already won the lottery.

I thought about the same thing too - but here's what everyone is chasing now, but no one is really talking about.

Follow me for second:

That Strasburg is a 1 of 1 x-refractor. So only one printed of THAT card. From my post before, there's an inclusion of another card that belongs to him that is ALSO 1 of 1.

His autographed 1 of 1 x-refractor. Wait till that one is pulled.

I wish they put in auto'd T206's in the tobacco packs....that would have been cool hehehehe

Section103
05-24-2010, 02:44 PM
I cant speak to the Strasburg specifically, but I can say with absolute certainty (across the sportscard spectrum) that not all limited edition print cards are inserted randomly in packs. They have ways of eeking out into the public, into the hands of related parties, etc....and they never once see the shine of foil.

marvjung
05-24-2010, 02:50 PM
I cant speak to the Strasburg specifically, but I can say with absolute certainty (across the sportscard spectrum) that not all limited edition print cards are inserted randomly in packs. They have ways of eeking out into the public, into the hands of related parties, etc....and they never once see the shine of foil.

With Upper Deck, yes, I completely agree. I believe Mr. McWilliams has his own printing press and holographic stickers located in his basement somewhere, with a bevy Griffey Jr. rookies ready to be printed hehehe :p

ArizonaGoat
05-24-2010, 04:12 PM
So there are several variables that make the Straussburg card so valuable to modern day collectors:

1. Considered first TRUE rookie card (although he had an earlier release).
2. It's a x-refractor labeled at 1/1.
3. Speculators like him



another thing to keep in mind is that Topps is the only MLB licensed manufacturer for 2010 - so this will be his "only" rookie card.

Rich Klein
05-25-2010, 05:20 AM
This is not an "Rookie Card" yet as under the new rules you must play in the majors before getting a RC.

In addition; there will be several Strasburg RC's this year; depending on when he is called up.

I would say:

Topps Update and Highlights
Topps Heritage Hi #'s
Bowman Draft Picks

And other brands will all have Strasburg RC's. I think we'll be looking at about 10 cards which will be RC's plus some parallels which will say Rookie Card but in actuality not be RC's.

Rich

ChiefBenderForever
05-25-2010, 02:08 PM
Talk about some free major advertising-

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/The-Stephen-Strasburg-baseball-card-that-costs-a?urn=mlb,243549

fkw
05-25-2010, 06:50 PM
ya, there were over 2,000 new watchers in last few hours alone. Its now up to 4381 watchers and the bidding is over $13K

nfbuckeye
05-25-2010, 06:54 PM
Approaching $15 K...crazy.

JasonL
05-26-2010, 04:51 AM
at least we KNOW the population. We spend alot of time speculating about vintage populations and spend money "thinking" our stuff is rare...

GrayGhost
05-26-2010, 05:32 AM
This whole thing is stupid period, anyone who pays that much for any new card. Now, the guy goes and gets hurt ( I really do NOT want this), lets say. Then what do you have? A piece of shiny stuff w no hope of it ever being worth it. Even if he he has a strong career, this card won't hold such ridiculous value.

Artificial scarcity.. Now, people used to "Speculate" in Mattingly Rookies. etc, but the prices were reasonable. This stuff? TOTALLY RIDICULOUS.

Leon
05-26-2010, 06:08 AM
at least we KNOW the population. We spend alot of time speculating about vintage populations and spend money "thinking" our stuff is rare...

I think this is a great point, "thinking cards are rare, when we don't know for sure." I don't feel this card will hold it's value long term but this is a good point. I see cards, it seems almost weekly, that used to be scarce and rare and now fairly large finds come out and .....not so rare anymore. I can think of quite a few that are that way being auctioned as I type this. The really rare (less than 5-10 known) stuff is getting harder to find...

53Browns
05-26-2010, 06:19 AM
Can you say buyers remorse....

53Browns
05-26-2010, 06:28 AM
.

kcohen
05-26-2010, 07:44 AM
At times I feel that those of us immersed in this hobby have more money than brains. This auction takes it to a new level.

M's_Fan
05-26-2010, 07:59 AM
Often in these high profile eBay auctions, you get a bunch of kids and idiots that bid away like its all a big joke. Many times when the auction is over the winner is somebody's 12 year old kid who thought it would be funny to bid, and ended up winning. It happens all the time with eBay. And the other bidders very often refuse second chance offers a few days or weeks later, when the excitement of the auction has worn off.

If I was the seller of this card I would be quite pessimistic that I was actually going to get paid, whatever the auction goes for. I suppose there are high end card auctions for modern cards, that pre-screen bidders, like REA, etc?

D. Bergin
05-26-2010, 08:33 AM
Often in these high profile eBay auctions, you get a bunch of kids and idiots that bid away like its all a big joke. Many times when the auction is over the winner is somebody's 12 year old kid who thought it would be funny to bid, and ended up winning. It happens all the time with eBay. And the other bidders very often refuse second chance offers a few days or weeks later, when the excitement of the auction has worn off.

If I was the seller of this card I would be quite pessimistic that I was actually going to get paid, whatever the auction goes for. I suppose there are high end card auctions for modern cards, that pre-screen bidders, like REA, etc?


Good point. There's a very good chance the seller gets stiffed in this auction. Looking at the feedback number on the high bidder right now, I'd say it's probably an eventuality.

usernamealreadytaken
05-26-2010, 08:52 AM
I used to collect modern golf cards (yes, I know). But anyway, Tiger and Phil Mickelson cards (autos and swatches) would flucuate wildly based on their performance week-to-week.

Remeber the Mike Vick rookie autos....

timzcardz
05-26-2010, 09:22 AM
Often in these high profile eBay auctions, you get a bunch of kids and idiots that bid away like its all a big joke. Many times when the auction is over the winner is somebody's 12 year old kid who thought it would be funny to bid, and ended up winning. It happens all the time with eBay. And the other bidders very often refuse second chance offers a few days or weeks later, when the excitement of the auction has worn off.

If I was the seller of this card I would be quite pessimistic that I was actually going to get paid, whatever the auction goes for. I suppose there are high end card auctions for modern cards, that pre-screen bidders, like REA, etc?

If you look at the bid retraction and cancellation history, http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=190398394834
you'll see that there has been a lot of screening of bidders going on.

Jantz
05-26-2010, 11:00 AM
When I got on my computer this morning, the first thing I saw was the Yahoo article that JohnnyHarmonica has posted in post #93.

I was quite upset after reading this article. Not once did the author mention PSA or the Honus Wagner T206. How can a journalist write an article in this day & age without mentioning one of those two things. :rolleyes:

I did like the adjectives he used though, like "crazy-nuts" and "insane" although he left out my favorite...."stupid sick". ;)

Thank you for allowing me to inject a little sarcasm at this time.


Jantz

FUBAR
05-26-2010, 07:06 PM
apparently there are 4 other fake ebay auctions for this exact card, they all claim they own the 1/1

hopefully ebay removes the fake ones.

JP
05-27-2010, 04:27 PM
Even if I had interest in this card, I wouldn't bid in this auction. It should be in a legitimate auction, NOT eBay. The seller has already had 71 bids retracted or canceled.
71!!!
If you're the winning bidder, you have to assume that your price was bid up by countless fake or deadbeat bidders. What a joke....

19cbb
08-27-2010, 09:08 AM
Just an update on Strasburg:

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said that Stephen Strasburg is likely to need Tommy John surgery to repair a significant UCL tear in his pitching elbow. This will almost certainly wipe out the phenom's 2011 season, though the Nationals will seek a second opinion before going the Tommy John route. Strasburg's rookie season ends with a 5-3 record, 2.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 92/17 K/BB ratio over 68 innings.

barrysloate
08-27-2010, 09:19 AM
That's really a shame, and is the very reason why it's crazy to spend thousands of dollars on these cards. But his health is far more important than his baseball cards.

T205
08-27-2010, 09:23 AM
Its over:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AltF0Hba40XwQ0YgXJGMGg2FCLcF?slug=tsn-166444

Stephen Strasburg likely will have Tommy John surgery

I hate to be the guy who spent all that money on that card now.

nameless
08-27-2010, 09:31 AM
In this hobby we have completest. With all these 1/1s the completest which keep set collecting active will no go after this set because of all the 1/1s. I think its just lame how the card producers are trying to reproduce the rarity of cards caused by various elements such as pop-culture, printing presses, our parents flicking the cards at walls etc... The serial numbers are nice and all but I feel its just a fake sense of rarity. I mean that card has been on ebay multiple times now and if you look at it, it's the same card as his others just with some chrome. Does this 1/1 brand really bring us to 20k? I think not....
-John

E93
08-27-2010, 09:39 AM
That's really a shame, and is the very reason why it's crazy to spend thousands of dollars on these cards. But his health is far more important than his baseball cards.

I think *stupid* is probably the more accurate word to describe the $ paid for his cards a few months ago. Anybody who pays top tier HOF money for somebody who has played a half a season in the majors and just presumes that level of play will continue uninterrupted for 20 years, thus justifying the investment as a good one, is stupid.
JimB

quinnsryche
08-27-2010, 10:00 AM
i think *stupid* is probably the more accurate word to describe the $ paid for his cards a few months ago. Anybody who pays top tier hof money for somebody who has played a half a season in the majors and just presumes that level of play will continue uninterrupted for 20 years, thus justifying the investment as a good one, is stupid.
Jimb

+1,000,000

Doug
08-27-2010, 10:01 AM
There was a story on Yahoo about the guy that bought this card off eBay and if I recall correctly he decided to buy it based on watching Strasburg pitch against the Pirates while out with his wife at a Buffalo Wild Wings. Too bad I don't have a 1/1 card because after a few beers I'd probably look pretty good pitching against the Pirates too. :D

barrysloate
08-27-2010, 10:18 AM
i think *stupid* is probably the more accurate word to describe the $ paid for his cards a few months ago. Anybody who pays top tier hof money for somebody who has played a half a season in the majors and just presumes that level of play will continue uninterrupted for 20 years, thus justifying the investment as a good one, is stupid.
Jimb

+ 3.14159265...

19cbb
08-27-2010, 10:28 AM
Mark Prior 2.0

glynparson
08-27-2010, 11:57 AM
'Pretty crazy, but I would rather have that card than many of the high grade vintage PSA 9's and 10's which are trimmed. A 1965 Topps leader card sold PSA 10 for $120,000+ a few years back. That is MUCH crazier to me than the Strasburg.

Though still rediculous if you are referring to the Drysdale Koufax leader PSA 10 sold by Mastro to the leading Koufax collector on the PSA registry I think it was closer to 25k which is still absurd but a long way from 120,000.

You may be referring to a different sale if so please show me to which sale you are referring.

mr.ginter
08-27-2010, 12:17 PM
Stephen Strasburg Has 'Significant Tear' in Elbow Ligament, Will Need Surgery

iggyman
08-27-2010, 12:24 PM
Tough body blow for the hobby but we will persevere. Hopefully, he comes back better then ever! At least this kind of thing can't happen to a Cobb, Ruth, Mathewson, Lajoie, Williams, DiMaggio, Mantle, Horace Clarke, etc, etc, etc...

Lovely Day...

familytoad
08-27-2010, 01:21 PM
Iggy-Man

Even a dolt like me might notice if Cy Young had Tommy John surgery...

We just have to worry about the card surgery being done...still painful to the wallet, but doesn't hurt your arm.

And don't you think I missed the Horace Clarke reference my pal...well played and very funny!

whitehse
08-27-2010, 01:43 PM
There was a story on Yahoo about the guy that bought this card off eBay and if I recall correctly he decided to buy it based on watching Strasburg pitch against the Pirates while out with his wife at a Buffalo Wild Wings. Too bad I don't have a 1/1 card because after a few beers I'd probably look pretty good pitching against the Pirates too. :D


The Strasburg card in question was purchased by Brian Gray of Razor entertainment/Leaf sportscards to include in his repackaged product that is coming out I believe next week. Basically Brian bought the card for 20K to put it in his product that features one graded card per pack. I am sure he doesnt care if Strasburg has TJ surgery as he is not holding onto the card, just packing it out some someone else can have it in their collection. This card was supposed to be one of the high points of his product and I am sure it will still be regardless of the injury.

teetwoohsix
08-27-2010, 01:44 PM
The other day I was at Target and noticed the Topps 2010 sets are advertising on the front of the box "Stephen Strasburg rookie card inside":D

I wish him the best in his career,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,lets see what happens next with the Las Vegas phenom Bryce Harpers' rookie card :D

Clayton

Delray Vintage
08-27-2010, 02:12 PM
I cannot believe anyone would pay 16k for a manufactured rarity. Think beany babies and that will give you an idea of created rarity. Add to that the surgery and this is a crd waiting to plummet. Of course 84 bids shows there are a lot of folks waitnig for card companies to tell them what is rare. The fact that any card company can create a 1/1 means nothing. I see these presidential autographs packed in a card and suddenly it goes for more than the whole letter from the same historical figure. Absurd indeed.

Doug
08-27-2010, 02:51 PM
The Strasburg card in question was purchased by Brian Gray of Razor entertainment/Leaf sportscards to include in his repackaged product that is coming out I believe next week. Basically Brian bought the card for 20K to put it in his product that features one graded card per pack. I am sure he doesnt care if Strasburg has TJ surgery as he is not holding onto the card, just packing it out some someone else can have it in their collection. This card was supposed to be one of the high points of his product and I am sure it will still be regardless of the injury.

The article I was referring to was about the guy who originally won it for $16k on the eBay auction mentioned at the beginning of the post. I'm guessing the guy you are talking about won it from Huggins and Scott?

whitehse
08-27-2010, 03:43 PM
The article I was referring to was about the guy who originally won it for $16k on the eBay auction mentioned at the beginning of the post. I'm guessing the guy you are talking about won it from Huggins and Scott?

Doug,

I believe that is correct.

packs
08-27-2010, 03:56 PM
I still have a hard time with the hardline manufactured rarity heat people bring up. This board is full of people who are completionists and have to have every card of any given set with all possible combinations. Cards like this are made for people like that. You have to have this card because it completes a master set. But you don't like this card because it has a number printed on it. If you collect rare backs or type cards, I don't understand why you would have a problem with manufactured rarity. Bowman didn't put a price tag on this card. Only a number. It's up to collectors to assign the value. So why get mad at the manufacturer when you're just as hungry for certain cards without numbers on them? You can have your every day Cobb with a Sweet Cap back or you can go crazy over a Brown Lenox. What's the difference? It seems obvious that Lenox, Uzit, Drum etc were all printed in lower numbers than the other backs. You have 52 Hi's and 52 lows both purposely printed in different quantities. But they aren't seen as manufactured rarity because they weren't meant to be valuable. I think thats just semantics.

Doug
08-27-2010, 04:02 PM
That's a good point. It's all about what people want to spend their money on. We might think it's crazy to spend $20k on a modern card, but the people choosing to do so probably think we are crazy for spending that kind of money on cards of dead players. I guess as long as everyone is enjoying the hobby in their own way, to each his own. :)

packs
08-27-2010, 04:08 PM
I totally agree with you. I mean, for me it's hard to imagine why someone would waste hundreds of dollars on a Shag T206 just because people for whatever reason as a collective whole decided it was worth more money because of his haircut. But to each his own. I don't blame ALC.

Orioles1954
08-27-2010, 04:21 PM
I also love the "well he's just a prospect" mantra. There are many on this board who are more than willing to fork over thousands of dollars for a "no name" minor leaguer from the deadball era who died decades ago.

Peter_Spaeth
08-27-2010, 05:33 PM
I still have a hard time with the hardline manufactured rarity heat people bring up. This board is full of people who are completionists and have to have every card of any given set with all possible combinations. Cards like this are made for people like that. You have to have this card because it completes a master set. But you don't like this card because it has a number printed on it. If you collect rare backs or type cards, I don't understand why you would have a problem with manufactured rarity. Bowman didn't put a price tag on this card. Only a number. It's up to collectors to assign the value. So why get mad at the manufacturer when you're just as hungry for certain cards without numbers on them? You can have your every day Cobb with a Sweet Cap back or you can go crazy over a Brown Lenox. What's the difference? It seems obvious that Lenox, Uzit, Drum etc were all printed in lower numbers than the other backs. You have 52 Hi's and 52 lows both purposely printed in different quantities. But they aren't seen as manufactured rarity because they weren't meant to be valuable. I think thats just semantics.

I personally don't buy rare backs or rare anything, but I can appreciate the difference between a card that is rare for what I would call natural reasons and a card that is rare only because a modern day manufacturer contrived to create a collectible by creating some meaningless variation like a numbered refractor.

packs
08-27-2010, 05:46 PM
Well how do you feel about the Goudey Lajoie, Ruth Butter Cream, or US Caramel Lindstrom? While not contrived variations, they were contrived rarities which was a conscious decision of the manufacturer.

Comiskey
08-27-2010, 08:03 PM
I personally think this is a tragedy for this kid. He truly had the baseball world in his grip and now, at such as young age, is going to have to go through surgery. I know that the card sold for a ton of money, but he really did have me excited to watch him and follow him throughout the season.

Hopefully, he can make a full recovery and get back to what he does best!

Jeff

packs
08-27-2010, 08:14 PM
Both Tim Hudson and Josh Johnson have bounced back amazingly well since they had their surgeries. They might have even improved their abilities from pre-surgery performances. I'm hoping the guy makes a fast come back like Johnson did and dominates for years to come. It would really be something to see Strasburg and Pujols in their primes at the same time in the same league.

Doug
08-27-2010, 08:48 PM
According to this ESPN article http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4403920 he got a $7.5 million signing bonus, $2.5 million 15 days after the approval of his contract and another $2.5 million on January 2010. It's an unfortunate situation, but from the looks of it he was already paid at least $12.5 million before the season even started.

tbob
08-27-2010, 09:20 PM
A lot of people are feeling bad for the Nationals because of all the money they are shelling out but surely they had his arm insured?

FUBAR
08-27-2010, 11:30 PM
he lasted 12 games........

joeadcock
08-28-2010, 05:43 AM
Though possible, doubt early 1900's card manufacturers would have thought of creating the contrived scarcity of cards, the way it is done now. Mind set has developed in such a way.

Jim VB
08-28-2010, 08:01 AM
Though possible, doubt early 1900's card manufacturers would have thought of creating the contrived scarcity of cards, the way it is done now. Mind set has developed in such a way.

Actually, as Packs pointed out, several card companies did exactly that, albeit for a different reason. Goudey, US Caramel, Butter Cream and others, with held, or dramatically reduced production of single cards to encourage set collectors to keep buying packs.

That is artificial rarity.

calvindog
08-28-2010, 08:26 AM
A lot of people are feeling bad for the Nationals because of all the money they are shelling out but surely they had his arm insured?

So let's say there's $15 million guaranteed already paid -- how many more millions in merchandise and ticket sales, etc. have been made because of him?

Leon
08-28-2010, 08:30 AM
Actually, as Packs pointed out, several card companies did exactly that, albeit for a different reason. Goudey, US Caramel, Butter Cream and others, with held, or dramatically reduced production of single cards to encourage set collectors to keep buying packs.

That is artificial rarity.

My thought on the new cards and manufactured rarity is that it's just another form of collecting/gambling. Not really unlike a lot of what we do. There is nothing wrong with it. If it's what those guys enjoy, who the heck cares? It's their money.

As for pre-war rarities lets don't forget one of the reasons several card companies didn't produce many of a certain card. It was so they didn't have to give away too many prizes to folks completing sets and turning them in. regards

Orioles1954
08-28-2010, 09:21 AM
So let's say there's $15 million guaranteed already paid -- how many more millions in merchandise and ticket sales, etc. have been made because of him?

That's absolutely true. Topps has had one of their best years ever because of Strasburg. Now that he will be "yesterday's news", all attentions will be turned to Harper. It's the nature of the beast.

Orioles1954
08-28-2010, 09:23 AM
My thought on the new cards and manufactured rarity is that it's just another form of collecting/gambling. Not really unlike a lot of what we do. There is nothing wrong with it. If it's what those guys enjoy, who the heck cares? It's their money.

As for pre-war rarities lets don't forget one of the reasons several card companies didn't produce many of a certain card. It was so they didn't have to give away too many prizes to folks completing sets and turning them in. regards

Leon,

The majority of the fine folks at Freedom Cardboard are wonderful, nice people who appreciate vintage cards. However, they have gravitated toward the modern. Can't we as vintage collectors extend the same courtesy to them and not pass judgement on what they collect? I certainly hope so. After all, it's only baseball cards.

Mark
08-28-2010, 09:32 AM
Leon,

The majority of the fine folks at Freedom Cardboard are wonderful, nice people who appreciate vintage cards. However, they have gravitated toward the modern. Can't we as vintage collectors extend the same courtesy to them and not pass judgement on what they collect? I certainly hope so. After all, it's only baseball cards.

I don't understand that last sentence.

Leon
08-28-2010, 09:43 AM
Leon,

The majority of the fine folks at Freedom Cardboard are wonderful, nice people who appreciate vintage cards. However, they have gravitated toward the modern. Can't we as vintage collectors extend the same courtesy to them and not pass judgement on what they collect? I certainly hope so. After all, it's only baseball cards.

What is this supposed to mean? You sort of sound like my wife arguing the exact same point I am agreeing with? Maybe you didn't understand my post or I am not understanding yours? We are advocating the same thing.

Peter_Spaeth
08-28-2010, 09:46 AM
Actually, as Packs pointed out, several card companies did exactly that, albeit for a different reason. Goudey, US Caramel, Butter Cream and others, with held, or dramatically reduced production of single cards to encourage set collectors to keep buying packs.

That is artificial rarity.

To my mind not the same thing as artificially creating some stupid variation and arbitrarily making one of them. Not like Strasburg himself is a rare card, just some stupid variation colored red. But hey, whatever.

Orioles1954
08-28-2010, 10:01 AM
What is this supposed to mean? You sort of sound like my wife arguing the exact same point I am agreeing with? Maybe you didn't understand my post or I am not understanding yours? We are advocating the same thing.

Leon, you nimrod, I'm not arguing anything. I posted that in agreement :)

Leon
08-28-2010, 10:13 AM
Leon, you nimrod, I'm not arguing anything. I posted that in agreement :)

My apologies....It's been a while since I have been called a nimrod. I kind of like that. It's so much better than the things I have been called by my wife. Glad we got that cleared up :D. Now back to whatever it was I was doing...

danc
08-28-2010, 11:28 AM
People who follow hype aren't all that wise and always seem to get burned.

They always want "what's in the news" and this goes for something like this (if he pitches 50 perfect games in a row, it won't hold it's value because there will a better 1/1 insert down the road) or the buying up autographs of a recently deceased individual (I watched a person win a Mother Theresa signed insert card for $12,000 following her death or those $3,000 Michael Jackson photos which are now selling for $300), it never pays off for them in the long run.

This isn't a tragedy, just delays what could be a brilliant pitcher in the making. ESPN made it seem like he had passed away, but I know have facts memorized noting indivuduals who had bounced back from this with more success.

And Kerry Wood.

DanC

joeadcock
08-28-2010, 07:23 PM
Have to agree with Peter. However, probable that those same creators(of pre 1940 sets), put in the present, would do the same or similar. Exposed to present mindset, internet, historical perspective, etc, that would be likely outcome.

packs
08-28-2010, 08:02 PM
As a collector, I don't see any difference between a refractor and a back variation. If you have to bring up intention to differentiate the two, then you're just talking about semantics. One is rarer than the other because it was printed in a more limited quantity. You can gloss the front in crazy colors or you can change the advertisement on the back, either way, you're making a scarcer version of your base card. The Strasburg card is not just a manufactured rarity, it is a chase card. It's the premier card in the entire set. People are going to buy more packs to try to find it. The same was true for the Lajoie Goudey, Ruth Butter Cream, the Chance Cracker Jack and so on and so on. I think people should stop looking at numbered cards as manufactured rarities and should start seeing them as what they are: chase cards. Card manufacturers have literally been doing the same thing for over a hundred years. Just because a product is modern doesn't make the concept new. And because you enjoy pre-war cards doesn't mean you aren't sharing a common collecting interest as modern collectors.

egbeachley
08-28-2010, 08:31 PM
As for pre-war rarities lets don't forget one of the reasons several card companies didn't produce many of a certain card. It was so they didn't have to give away too many prizes to folks completing sets and turning them in. regards

For some reason until now I failed to realize that without the chase cards the rest of the set would be much rarer since they would have been redeemed.