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Pup6913
01-03-2010, 10:42 PM
Guy pulled the auction with about 6 days left and the just over $3k on bids. Now a starting price of $9500. I understand the card is an error but is it really worth that:confused: Is it as rare as the Hoblitzell No Stats? Some of those in grade 4 barely top the $10k mark. Why not send it of to an auction house to get a realized value?

I think someone may have a pursuaded hand in new price to protect their interest. Just my opinion.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Christy-Mathewson-PSA-Very-Rare-Cycle-Back_W0QQitemZ110476925940QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_Ba seball?hash=item19b8f01bf4


Also does smething smell funny about this auction? Heres the bid list and strangely enough a new member with 0 feedback and really deep pockets bid. Wheres he at when I need him to bid up my cards??

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=110475324700

Wite3
01-03-2010, 11:12 PM
Absolutely not worth that much...It is not an error...it is just a Matty with a Cycle back and should bring a Matty price with the normal Cycle premium. I think that the hype that this card generated is just odd. It is not a single print and not as rare as the other single prints, errors, etc.

Joshua

Tcards-Please
01-04-2010, 01:52 AM
I can't believe he pulled it and relisted. Last I looked, it was around $2500.00. Although the new person has deep pockets, it doesn't appear that he is in the ballpark of what the new listing price is. Unless the person that bought the graded 3 last year for $9503 is looking for an upgrade, I don't see this selling for that price.

r/
Frank

Pup6913
01-04-2010, 07:17 AM
I have never heard of this. Is this story true that someone paid $1k for a card and it took 30 years to be recognized as an error to make his money back? I see where he got the steep price also.


The following information was found at the OldJudge Auction site, Nov. 2008:
"Never seen before, the rear of the Cycle backed card shows Mathewson having lost only one game in 1908 rather than the 11 he lost and is recorded on every other T205 Mathewson known. The type on the back is extremely dark and clear and this is not a case of the type not coming out or a digit being rubbed out. The card was discovered by long time Indianapolis collector Ted Koch at a show in 1975 or 1976 and was purchased then for the princely sum of $1,000. The card has, as previously mentioned a fairly tough Cycle back, and there is a possibility that may have something to do with the error. At this time the card must be considered the rarest of T205 variations easily surpassing the “Hoblitzell”. The card has a worn upper left corner and a couple of minor specks in the gold border. No creases and a very nice appearing card.
Winning Bid $9,503."

Mrc32
01-04-2010, 07:18 AM
You don't come across lottery tickets that often that are winners.

If it was mine and I was forced to sell it, I would take it to a real auction house...

Matt
01-04-2010, 07:25 AM
I wish the guy would have let the auction run (or at least sent it to major auction as Andrew suggested) so we can put an end to the "how much should it be worth" discussions on this card since the Lipsett sale seems not to be trusted due to the mis-information in the listing (it's not the rarest T205 variation; Hobby no stats is rarer).

The guy did already have 4 bids over $2500 so we know the market doesn't agree with the philosophy that it should be valued like any similar print HOFer with a Cycle back. That's not really surprising considering the precedent of cards like DeMitt, O'Hara and Wilhelm which are valued well above what they "should" be if looking only at populations, as collectors have always placed a premium on these textual variations.

Disclaimer: I own one of these. Heck - if his sells for $9500+ mine will be next for sale :)

Wite3
01-04-2010, 07:29 AM
Lew was wrong on the oldjudge website...there are as many Cycle Mattys as there are other Cycles. They all contain the misprint. Hoblitzell no stats is much more rare (in fact, there are several rarer cards). I have seen many Cycle backed Mattys over the years...the only thing driving the price right now is hype and collector fervor over trying to get a supposedly rare error card. I repeat, this is no rarer than any other Cycle backed card. People who are paying these prices, just need to wait...others will come around.

Just to put some more perspective on this...a large Cycle find was uncovered about five years ago...included in the find was at least two Cycle Mattys (I suspect there was three but one was a private sale). According to my notes, in the last three years since this hype started, I have seen at least 9 different Cycle Mattys sell at auction, ebay, or privately. In the same time, I have only seen two different Hoblitzell no stats sell.

I have no problem putting a premium on the card since collectors want to be completists with their sets and competition will drive the price. I feel that I would not pay that much for that particular card. Would I pay a small premium (if I did not already own one), yes, but a small premium. Not $9500.

Joshua

calvindog
01-04-2010, 07:54 AM
The two highest bids came from zero feedback, brand new accounts. That's all you need to know about this auction.

Leon
01-04-2010, 08:21 AM
Give this Matty-Cycle about 1-2 yrs for everyone to understand it is not rare or even scarce, and it will come back to where it should be. Maybe about "xxxx" for a nice vg-ex example. Those collectors in between now and then will lose money buying it. All imho......

Matt
01-04-2010, 08:42 AM
Give this Matty-Cycle about 1-2 yrs for everyone to understand it is not rare or even scarce, and it will come back to where it should be. Maybe about 1k or less for a nice vg-ex example. Those collectors in between now and then will lose money buying it. All imho......

It's probably equally as tough as the Wilhelm "suffered" variation which (last I checked) sells $2k+ in decent shape, and then add a kicker for it being a top tier HOFer. Rarity is all relative - it's certainly much rarer then a T205 Matty with a regular 37-11 back or a T206 O'Hara. For a T205 set collector, it's a pretty rare variation...

Again, I wish he would have sold it at major auction so all of this conjecture could be moot.

Josh - you mentioned you've seen 9 in the last 3 years; how many T205 Matty's have you seen over the same stretch with the regular 37-11 back?

Leon
01-04-2010, 08:51 AM
It's probably equally as tough as the Wilhelm "suffered" variation which (last I checked) sells $2k+ in decent shape, and then add a kicker for it being a top tier HOFer. Rarity is all relative - it's certainly much rarer then a T205 Matty with a regular 37-11 back or a T206 O'Hara. For a T205 set collector, it's a pretty rare variation...

Again, I wish he would have sold it at major auction so all of this conjecture could be moot.

Josh - you mentioned you've seen 9 in the last 3 years; how many T205 Matty's have you seen over the same stretch with the regular 37-11 back?

Matt- You are probably closer to me on valuation as I don't follow T205's, in particular, very much. I just checked my Matty and it's a Piedmont :). I guess there is no windfall for me :(.

egbeachley
01-04-2010, 09:25 AM
Josh - you mentioned you've seen 9 in the last 3 years; how many T205 Matty's have you seen over the same stretch with the regular 37-11 back?

About the same as those without a Cycle back.

asoriano
01-04-2010, 11:22 AM
Like Matt, I was hoping the auction wouldn't have ended (albeit, I figured it would).

I'd say it is probably a bit easier to find than the Wilhelm "suffered"; I can recall only seeing about five or so examples of the Wilhelm in the past two years.

tbob
01-04-2010, 11:59 AM
Does someone have a Hobby no stats in vgex to trade even up for my Matty Cycle back in vgex? ;)
I didn't think so. I'd like to think the $9500 is a reasonable price (and a nice profit since I bought mine for $200) but the Matty cycle back is worth a premium but not more than 2x.

Matt
01-04-2010, 12:17 PM
Does someone have a Hobby no stats in vgex to trade even up for my Matty Cycle back in vgex? ;)
I didn't think so. I'd like to think the $9500 is a reasonable price (and a nice profit since I bought mine for $200) but the Matty cycle back is worth a premium but not more than 2x.

I don't think anyone here would argue it should be worth what a Hobby no stats is. There's a world of space in between what a Hobby no stats is worth and what the card would normally be worth if it didn't have the 37-1 variation. That's where all the conjecture comes in.

Matt E.
01-04-2010, 01:51 PM
Was there excessive lobbying to the grading companies to get this added?


As an avid collector of T205's, I would not pay anything other than the normal Cycle premium for this card at best.

Matt E.

Matt
01-04-2010, 02:08 PM
As an avid collector of T205's, I would not pay anything other than the normal Cycle premium for this card at best.


This is getting humorous. In the sake of disclosure, it should be noted that Turner contacted me this morning in the interest of buying mine as you need it for your set. People should know your comment may have been influenced by a desire to keep the price down.

Matt E.
01-04-2010, 02:20 PM
This is getting humorous. In the sake of disclosure, it should be noted that Turner contacted me this morning in the interest of buying mine as you need it for your set. People should know your comment may have been influenced by a desire to keep the price down.


If Turner wants to buy and it to the set fine with me. His card budget is bigger than mine right now. I figured you would be coming on to bust my chops about my thoughts. Trust me, my comments cannot keep a card price down. We are two separate collectors.

Sake of disclosure? you sound like Judge Judy.

Again, I would not pay anything additional for this made up variation IMO. I will take my chances and find it at a card show.

calvindog
01-04-2010, 02:28 PM
As an avid collector of T205's, I would not pay anything other than the normal Cycle premium for this card at best.

Matt E.

I'm just a neophyte when it comes to the T205 set so I appreciate the guidance. I was just about to offer 10K for an example of this Cycle Matty, thanks!

Matt E.
01-04-2010, 02:30 PM
I'm just a neophyte when it comes to the T205 set so I appreciate the guidance. I was just about to offer 10K for an example of this Cycle Matty, thanks!

Paying the additional premium for the Cycle back would be pushing it on second thought.

Matt E.

Matt E.
01-04-2010, 02:44 PM
I'm just a neophyte when it comes to the T205 set so I appreciate the guidance. I was just about to offer 10K for an example of this Cycle Matty, thanks!

Yikes!

CD.... try offering his opening bid of $9,500 to end the auction. Trying to save you five hundo.

Matt E.

tbob
01-04-2010, 04:17 PM
Yikes!

CD.... try offering his opening bid of $9,500 to end the auction. Trying to save you five hundo.

Matt E.

Matt- I think Jeff was just kidding :)
tbob

tbob
01-04-2010, 04:20 PM
I don't think anyone here would argue it should be worth what a Hobby no stats is. There's a world of space in between what a Hobby no stats is worth and what the card would normally be worth if it didn't have the 37-1 variation. That's where all the conjecture comes in.


Matt- My response was tongue in cheek. I think you're right about the conjecture, but I just don't think the Matty 37-1 is either a variation or worth a bundle. If it is, and the market bears it, I will gladly sell mine and replace it in my set with a Sweet Caporal backed card.
tbob

marcdelpercio
01-04-2010, 05:00 PM
To those who do not consider this a variation and/or worth a significant premium, please consider this a standing offer to buy your copy for the "normal" price of a Cycle backed Mathewson. Should be about $700-$800 in VG. In fact, I will even add another 10% to make it worth your trouble. There are at least two people who have responded in this thread so far who own these and do not consider them worth a major premium. Just tell me where to send the check :)

Brian Van Horn
01-04-2010, 05:22 PM
I wouldn't even consider $700-$800. I picked up this card for $75.00 in the back of the SCD about thirteen years ago. Has it appreciated? Yes. To $700.00 or $800.00? No. The other total doesn't even merit consideration, but all too often on eBay the price asked for is either a blatant try to find a pigeon or a desperate cry for help.

Matt E.
01-04-2010, 05:33 PM
Matt- I think Jeff was just kidding :)
tbob

So was I,, sarcasm never translates well.. should have included one of these :)

marcdelpercio
01-04-2010, 05:36 PM
So it's a deal?

The $700-$800 is the approximate price of a VG condition Mathewson with a 1.5-2x multiplier for the Cycle back. Of course nobody is actually going to sell me one for this price. I am simply illustrating the point that the people who claim to believe that this is not a variation and/or worth a significant premium know that their beliefs are not in line with the market for this card or any of the other similar widely accepted variations which have been previously discussed. I was just giving them the opportunity to put their cards where their mouths are, so to speak. As yet, the offers have not begun rolling into the old inbox, strangely enough.

barrysloate
01-04-2010, 05:39 PM
I think the gist of this thread is at $9500 the card is more likely to go down than up...maybe not to $700-800 but certainly half or less of its current value is realistic.

Wite3
01-04-2010, 05:57 PM
I do not track every card...I can say that at any given time, there are usually 3-4 T205 Mattys for sale (on ebay, on auction sites, or through websites)...I agree with Bob, I would gladly take my T205 Matty Cycle and trade it straight up for a Hobby no stats....like Leon, I can see this card going way down soon...people drive the price (Billy Ripken, etc.) and then it crashes when the demand dries up. Just my opinion.

Joshua

Pup6913
01-04-2010, 06:18 PM
Some quotes are incorrect here. Cycles do not carry a premium. They sell for the same amount as a Hassan, Piedmont, AB, HLC, ect. Those of us who buy T205's regularly should know this. If they do carry premiums then I have purchased about 20 of these for 1/2 of what they are worth in the last yr and would like to sell them and double my money.

Until those Cycle Mattys are reslabbed appropriatly we will not have a accurate POP count thus driving a rise in $. Those who don't track sales on these from the past are the ones who will be buying till the market cools drastically.

I would be willing to Pay about $2000-2500 for one in SGC grade 4-5. May be a while till I find one but I can wait. At this time I have some personal issues to attend to but after that is done if anyone has one out there let me know. I think my offer is fair, but then again maybe not. I am sure no one will have one to sell for that.:rolleyes:

Also like Calvindog and myself pointed out the most disturbing part is the mysterious 0 feedback high bidder that jacked up the price.:mad:

Mikehealer
01-04-2010, 06:25 PM
I don't collect T205's and was wondering is there a premium attached to any
of the backs line like there is in the t206's? If so what multiples. Sorry to get
off topic, but just curious.

Pup6913
01-04-2010, 06:34 PM
I don't know the multipuls but here are the ones that carry a premium according to what I have bought in the last couple yrs.


Hindu
Broadleaf
Drum
Blanks


AB, and Cycles fluctuate but not more than a normal backed card.

sox1903wschamp
01-04-2010, 06:43 PM
DESCRIPTION:
"Shortprinted 1911 T205 Cycle back card of Boston Red Sox player Ed Karger. PSA 5, just a hint of corner wear on this well centered card. The Cycle back is pretty tough in the T205 set and generally commands a 1.5-2X multiplier, making for a tough front/back combination here. Excellent opportunity for the T205 speacialists."

This is straight from the most recent B&L auction. I am not a back collector so the comments contrary to the above from Andrew mean little to me but who is right here? And Andrew, I am not saying your wrong, just curious.

Sorry to take this somewhat off topic to our Matty debate and it maybe with respect to the fairly recent find of Cycle backed T-205's, that time will really tell if there is a premium.

Matt
01-04-2010, 06:46 PM
WRT a general Cycle back premium, I think everyone is right - on common cards I have seen little to no premium and on star cards and SPs I have noticed the premium.

marcdelpercio
01-04-2010, 06:52 PM
Some quotes are incorrect here. Cycles do not carry a premium. They sell for the same amount as a Hassan, Piedmont, AB, HLC, ect. Those of us who buy T205's regularly should know this. If they do carry premiums then I have purchased about 20 of these for 1/2 of what they are worth in the last yr and would like to sell them and double my money.

I disagree with this. Cycles and AB do carry a premium (I would estimate about 50%), especially on high grade and/or high dollar cards. The populations of Cycle and AB backs are considerably lower than the other common backs you mentioned. If you are talking about low grade commons, I agree that Cycle and AB will not be significantly more expensive than more common backs although I would expect a small premium. On a top tier HOF like Mathewson, a Cycle or AB back will always command a premium over a Piedmont or Hassan, regardless of the text variation we are discussing.

Pup6913
01-04-2010, 07:19 PM
If this is ther case then I would like to sell all my AB and cycles for the prices they are supposed to be at and not what I paid for them. I bought a Cycle backed Huggins for $89. Guess that should be worth about $300 since I actually paid about $40 less than normall for it via Ebay. I have a POP 1 AB Barger full B SGC 5.5 also that I bought for less than common prices. I think I have one card I paid about $35 more for than normall due to grade, POP, and presentation.

As a matter of a fact I will say that none of you are correct about AB and Cycles due to the fact that I have bought about 20-30 of these in the past 6 months will ZERO premium and a few of these under normal prices. This also holds true that the guys that are asking for the premiums on Ebay and else where still have their cards months after listing because they say the cards have premiums and are asking for them.

I am only saying this because I believe that I have bought more of these T205 specific backs than most of you for the past 6 months to a year. You cant argue the facts (I am sure you guys will though:D)

Also to adress Mr Steele an auction houses deal is to make the card sound irresistable so that it brings top dollar. That card didn't sell for as much as a normall backed card. So there is a good example to start with.

Pup6913
01-04-2010, 07:36 PM
Here are some links for those AB and Cycle backed cards

Cobb AB

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/auction/2006/239.html

Normal grade 6 Cobb

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/auction/2008/408.html

Cycle backed Joss

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12044

Normal Joss

PSA 4 for $1247, SGC 4 for $975.

heres a blank backed Cobb

http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/auction/2009/316.html

So where are the premiums. there are none. The data shows this and this was a quick 10 min search and to type this.

Brian Weisner
01-04-2010, 07:57 PM
Hi Andrew,
You can read data anyway you like, but.... The prices for cards in 2006 vs 2008 are not apples to apples.... I am very impressed with the AB's and Cycles you were able to pick up in the past year.... I wish I hadn't filled as many slots in the past 5 years or my set would look a bit higher grade. You should be very happy with your additions as I think you picked them up quite cheap.... Be well Brian


PS I have been collecting rare backs for a long time.... And I wish I had been paying attention to EBay instead of working so hard.

PS 2 Cycle Matty's(37-1) may not be as tough as Hobby no stats, but they are not easy.... Wilhelm "suffered" is very tough.... despite the fact that it comes with 2 different backs, Hassan and Cycle... although I doubt more than 5-6 Cycles exist.....

PS 3 I have a 37-1 Matty.... And I will be interested to see how many come out.....

sox1903wschamp
01-04-2010, 08:12 PM
Also to adress Mr Steele an auction houses deal is to make the card sound irresistable so that it brings top dollar. That card didn't sell for as much as a normall backed card. So there is a good example to start with.



Ahhh yes, auction hyperbole. I am going to agree with you but they are certaintly not in the same ballpark as say, the Goodwins of the world :)

tbob
01-04-2010, 08:54 PM
I put together a T205 set, sold it in the early 90's, then put together the set I have now in the late 90's. I didn't notice any premium for Cycle cards and a slight premium for ABs. The higher premiums were for Broadleaf, Hindu and Drum. I am still one of the minority which thinks the Hindus are the scarcest, most think Drums are toughest. All 4 are tougher than Cycles. That said I have't been buying any T205s in 10 years so what do I know? ;)

Pup6913
01-04-2010, 10:51 PM
Brian you have to look at the market command. In 06' we were not dealing with a depression (recession) as we were starting to experience in 08'. Prices reflect cards selling near or higher then now also.

If I remember I discussed this same situation with another member about his SGC 4 Cobb and why he was asking so much for it. I brought to his attention that there were 2 recent AB backed Cobbs in auction houses and several others in the same grade w/common backs selling for about $500+ less than he was asking for a Piedmont. Seems the card is still for sale and this was in he summer time. All you need to do is a few minutes or research in the web, auction house archives, VCP, Card Pricer, Ebay, ect. to find this info and do the comparisons.

I will arguee this till I can't breath that AB and Cycle backed T205's do not carry a premium. Unless you are buying alot of them instead of one here and there you will not see the amount passing through, and the prices they are going for.

They come in spurts. I bought 15 AB and Cycle backed T205's in grade 4's and higher in about 10 days on Ebay. None sold for more than normal. A few weeks later a couple popped up and they sold for about $10 more than average, then another group showed up and the prices actually were selling for less than average.

Sovereigns come around less than AB and Cycles lately. This makes me wonder.

So I think what we are all trying to get to here is the actuall price that a Matty Cycle should sell for. We all know Hoblitzell is the rarest, followed by what??? Does anyone have that list? That will make a great start for figuring this out. I say an average 4 should bring $1500-$2500 after the hype settles.

If you own one what would you want to sell it for and in what condition is the card? Bet I don't get many honest responses for this question:)

marcdelpercio
01-04-2010, 11:38 PM
Just out of curiosity Andrew, why are you so avidly collecting Cycle and AB backed T205's if you don't feel that they are any scarcer or more valuable than Piedmonts?

One can always find individual data to try to prove a point and no doubt you have probably found some very good deals as you mentioned over the past several months. I think that most who actively collect the T205 set would place a premium on Cycle and AB backed cards. That's of course not to say that every such card will always sell for more than a similar card with a more common back. But overall, I am confident that this will hold true.

P.S. At your suggestion, I did a few minutes of research and checked recent sales on eBay. The last (and only recent) AB card to sell was this common:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-American-Beauty-Larry-Doyle-SGC-70_W0QQitemZ160360422306QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_Base ball?hash=item255639dba2

Note that none of the other SGC 70's of common players on eBay now even have an ASKING price of more than $275.

Wite3
01-05-2010, 12:02 AM
A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

Now, a bit of history...the Cycles used to carry a slight premium, usually about 2x-3x...that all changed about 5 years ago when a rather large find was made and sold into the hobby through ebay and two other auction houses. The premium seemed to go down and I was able to pick up some nice Cycles for nearly the same prices as the more common backs. I will say that they are at least twice as rare as HLC or Hassan still...they also do carry a slight premium...just check ebay...there was one that I lost (or am losing) just the other day that is nearly twice what I paid for a similar condition PB two weeks before. American Beauty definitely still carries a premium. Always has...especially the black version. This version now seems to be rarer...Now, the economy is making the prices bump up and down a bunch lately...Andrew, if you really want, I have a fantastic argument on why there should be a premium on Cycle and AB....because flatly, there are fewer of them made than the others...Sovereign barely contains a premium because a bunch have come to market in the past and they are not as scarce as once thought (In fact, in my first article sent to friends on the T205 set in 1996, I had the rarity of Sovereign more than Cycle and American Beauty because at the time, they were seen less commonly). This set changes rarity on finds...see Hindu/Drum example below...

Bob, When I first started tracking backs and doing research on this, I noticed that Hindu was listed as rarest. As I tracked there was a small Hindu find in the early '90s which seemed to push Drum to the top. Up until recently, I had charted 23 different Hindu players including at least 2 instances where there were two distinct cards of the same player meaning the Hindu had to run a printing at least twice. Now there are 31 distinct subjects.

Up until a year ago, I had only seen 18 different Drum backs, all different fronts. Until the St. Louis find, I figured it may have only run once, but I finally found a double, so I know that the Drum run was run at least twice. No the Drums and Hindus seem just about even again.

I still believe that Drum is tougher but not by much anymore.

The Cycle Matty is no scarcer than any other Cycle card as far as I can tell. The Wilhelm suffered is scarcer. I think that the print run for that card was different. I think that it is a single print that replaced another card on the sheet or was replaced by another card (like a minor leaguer) and was run with a much shorter print run. Just like the Hoblitzell no stats was probably replaced by another card or replaced another card and run with a much shorter print run. Whether it happened early in the print run or later, those cards are much rarer than the Cycle Matty. Granted Matty is a HOFer and it is one of the most beautiful cards in the set, I still feel that the premium placed on it is way out of line with rarity...it is just a demand premium and will go down eventually.

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua

Tcards-Please
01-05-2010, 02:14 AM
Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

Mrc32
01-05-2010, 06:30 AM
The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua

WOW- I love this thread.

So are you suggesting that the Joss is the 4th most scare card in the master set? Wow. I had no idea.

I would like to ask, when you say scare, do you mean total population of the card (either on the market or in collections) or do you mean frequency that a card comes up for sale?

Matt
01-05-2010, 06:39 AM
Rarity, has to do with populations; scarcity has to do with how often a card is available.

Using the SGC numbers, it seems the Mathewson variation is 2nd to only Hobby no stats as far as T205 variation rarity.

calvindog
01-05-2010, 07:23 AM
Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?

Pup6913
01-05-2010, 07:29 AM
Just out of curiosity Andrew, why are you so avidly collecting Cycle and AB backed T205's if you don't feel that they are any scarcer or more valuable than Piedmonts?

P.S. At your suggestion, I did a few minutes of research and checked recent sales on eBay. The last (and only recent) AB card to sell was this common:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-American-Beauty-Larry-Doyle-SGC-70_W0QQitemZ160360422306QQcmdZViewItemQQptZUS_Base ball?hash=item255639dba2

Note that none of the other SGC 70's of common players on eBay now even have an ASKING price of more than $275.

Mark I absolutly love the AB and Cycle backed cards, plus since most are just collecting fronts for a set I want a unique set that is made of a majority of harder to find backs that "seem" to cost the same as normalls. Just because they aren't as common as some of ther others don't seem to make them worth more. I guess if they are worth more then I pretty much have stolen all of the ones I own in regards to price.

I think they are neat and since I have seemed to get these "costly cards" at such a cheap rate then I am very happy. As far as the auction for BMW cards:eek: I do not believe for one minute that some dummy paid that much for that card. You ever follow his sales on crap like that. I think he does it to make it look like he is selling for the most money. I guess this would make the one I got for $65 worth about $300-350 right? I got mine about 4 months ago via Ebay. The Barger should be worth about $600 due to being a POP 1 and grade then. Man 7 times what I paid:cool:

I guess we could argue all day about this and we all are probably right due to timeframes and purchases.

I think the Matty Should be in #3 or #4 spot on the list.

Wite3
01-05-2010, 07:29 AM
You can not use pop reports for comparison...First off, people have broken out cards and sent them to cross. Next, if I understand pop. reports, PSA and SGC did not distinguish between Cycle to start and only started doing this more recently. Third, the grading companies make mistakes. I can tell you right now that I used to own a Wilhelm suffe ed that I cracked out of a PSA case that just said Wilhelm. Using grading reports and pop. reports is useless imho.

I think that Matty is more often seen for sale than the ten I listed. Even the Matty cycle has come up three or four times in the last 6 months. I can honestly say that in 2009 I only saw Joss a handful of times. Joss is a single print, HOFer, and in demand. It is a tough card to come by and when it does come up, it commands a lot of attention. Heck, I know at least three collectors who ask if I have an extra or know of one at least twice a year! I guess using the definitions, Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Joshua

Matt
01-05-2010, 07:31 AM
Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?

I believe SGC has always differentiated the advertising backs on their slabs. Also, their pop report is broken up by Ad back (the numbers total) and there is no "other" category.

Matt
01-05-2010, 07:36 AM
Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.


Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

Wite3
01-05-2010, 07:38 AM
Andrew,

I am glad you are able to buy "cheap" AB and Cycle lately but I have to say that most T205 cards have come down...in the last year, cards that went for $20-$25 are now selling for $13-17. Cards in the midgrades have also gone down. The good news is that high grade T205s have either remained steady or increased in price depending on player, demand, and scarcity.

I also hope you know that you will only have a subset of t205s as not all cards come with AB or Cycle backs.

Matty cycle should not be on the list because there are too many of them.
As you keep saying, Cycle is easy to find. Matty is not a short print and was printed as many times as Doyle, Olmstead, etc. We did a quick poll last time this topic came up and I know that at least five or six members came forward immediately saying and showing that they had Matty Cycles.

Price should not be a factor either, otherwise Cobb and Young and maybe Johnson would be on the list since all sell a little higher than some of the cards listed.

Joshua

Wite3
01-05-2010, 07:48 AM
If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months. My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss (eventhough Joss comes with three backs incl. Cycle, it was shortprinted greatly).

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)? They are all HOFers and available with the Cycle back and just as plentiful as the Matty.

Joshua

Matt
01-05-2010, 08:09 AM
My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss
The pop reports show significantly otherwise (5-6 times as many Josses as Matty Cycles). My guess as to why your survey shows differently then the SGC population reports is that your documentation is of which cards came up for sale (scarcity) which doesn't necessarily indicate how many of each exist (rarity). The Joss has been a known rarity for years and people may hold on to it; the Matty only recently gained wide acclaim and is still not 100% well known (in fact we had a long time board member start a thread about a month ago asking if anyone knew anything about a 37-1 Matty variation) and therefore it's probable not everyone is yet holding it; I wonder approximately what % of the sales of the Cycle Matty that you recorded were advertised as it being the rare 37-1 variation?


If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)?

Rarity doesn't equal selling for more. I know you suggested in another thread (http://www.net54baseball.com/showpost.php?p=749815&postcount=31) that the T206 DeMitt/O'Hara only sell for more because you think they are rarer then other PB cards but that argument isn't correct; there are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

barrysloate
01-05-2010, 08:44 AM
If I were to posit a guess on the future price of a Matty with Cycle back, I would say it is likely to come down from its $9500 level, but still sell for more than it should with relation to other Cycle backs.

tbob
01-05-2010, 12:19 PM
One caveat about the Matty 37-1 Cycle back is that when collectors (myself included) built a T205 set, no significance was given to the company which produced the cards, i.e. Sweet cap, Piedmont, AB, Cycle, etc. I noticed I had far fewer Broadleafs upon completion and no Drums or Hindus but otherwise I was concerned with the fronts and making sure each card had no creases or damage and was well centered and the only back concerns I had were whether there were any ink smudging or marking, staining or paper loss.
The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

Matt
01-05-2010, 12:21 PM
The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

Bob - that's a good point when comparing it to a caramel, but when comparing to other T205s (as we have been) it shouldn't make a difference - I'd think most people who would have their T205 Wilhelm slabbed would also have their T205 Matty slabbed; in fact the opposite is probably true - more Matty's are likely slabbed then a random T205 common.

calvindog
01-05-2010, 12:25 PM
If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months.

Joshua

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later. :)

tbob
01-05-2010, 12:27 PM
Bob - that's a good point when comparing it to a caramel, but when comparing to other T205s (as we have been) it shouldn't make a difference - I'd think most people who would have their T205 Wilhelm slabbed would also have their T205 Matty slabbed; in fact the opposite is probably true - more Matty's are likely slabbed then a random T205 common.


Matt- I know I won't have my Cycle Matty slabbed nor the Wilhelm because all the other cards in the set are raw. I get your point though.
By the way I am not a pop report regular so I was curious how the Latham and Leifeld variations compare with the Wilhelm and other variations. These variations have been known for a long time compared with the relatively short time of Wilhelm and the 37-1 Matty but I was wondering how they compare.

tbob
01-05-2010, 12:27 PM
Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later. :)

Make that two.

Tcards-Please
01-05-2010, 02:30 PM
Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

Matt - I'm not sure people are truly making a distinction between the Cycle Mathewson and others. No way is the Joss more rare than the Cycle Mathewson. Unless Joshua is saying that the Cycle Joss is more rare than the Cycle Mathewson (which using the pop report is correct), there is no way that Joss as a whole is more rare than the cycle Mathewson. As far as SGC slabbing, the Mathewson is one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set at 232. I just looked at the Cobb and they have only slabbed 182 (none with a cycle back), Young 111, Johnson 116. It's amazing that you have one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set and only 11 are cycles. Using Joshua's statement that cards are cracked and reslabbed would only mean that there are even less since the same cards are going back and forth between companies. I have been tracking the sale of the cycle Mathewson since the Old Judge auction and I have only seen two that were identified as cycles sold. Both on ebay (Feb 2009 and this one that is currently being listed on ebay). It would be interesting to know where the 3 or 4 that Joshua says sold in the last 6 months were?

tbob - where were the sellers when the one sold for $9503? I didn't see anyone placing their's on the BST. The one currently on ebay was at $3000.00 when pulled. It's odd that others who have them and are saying that there isn't a premium aren't placing theirs on ebay.

r/
Frank

T206Collector
01-05-2010, 03:35 PM
There are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

Tcards-Please
01-05-2010, 03:57 PM
I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

You hit it right on the head, I couldn't have said it any better.

r/
Frank

Anthony S.
01-05-2010, 04:10 PM
I will gladly mail the number "1" to whomever wants to affix it to their Cycle Matties. You pay postage.

asoriano
01-05-2010, 04:42 PM
Bob,

I don't follow the pop reports closely, but here is some information regarding a few variations.

I can tell you that the "A.P." Leifield variation is pretty easy to find (I've owned four at one time) and doesn't carry too much of a premium. A "3" sells for about $35-$50.

The W.A. Latham pops up for sale every now and then, but is very hard to find in a grade higher than a "4". If you do, expect to pay well.

The Wilhelm "suffered" is very, very tough. In my opinion, it is the second toughest card in the master set and tougher than the Matty Cycle.

Another variation that is very difficult to acquire is the Hoblitzell Name Correct, No Cin. variation. I'd also say that this card is tougher than the Matty Cycle. I wasn't surprised how well the SGC 60 did in the B&L auction. You don't find it often, and when you do, it is usually in low grade.

On a side note, the toughest Hall of Famer, by far, is the Joss. You don't see many examples that grade higher than VG-EX. Lots of collectors for the Joss, too.

As far as the Matty Cycle is concerned, I don't think we will ever see an example go for more than it did in the OldJudge auction. I'm fairly confident it will decline in price over a certain amount of time.

Wite3
01-05-2010, 06:32 PM
Oops...some clarification needed I see...yes, I was talking Joss Cycle to Matty Cycle...the Matty Cycle is rare, the Joss Cycle is rarer. Should a Matty Cycle cost more than a Joss Cycle, nope. My list was by card...if you go by scarcity of backs then there are many cards scarcer than Matty cycle (and joss for that matter)...

Oh yeah...Cobb does not come with a Cycle back as far as I can tell.

Joshua

Pup6913
01-05-2010, 06:52 PM
A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

In no way shape or form will I arguee this with Josh:D. I have only been activly building my set for a yr now but I want to create a very unique set with as many not so common backs as possible. Is it going to be worth more? Maybe but Maybe not. Its more of a challenge to do this otherwise I may be done to quick and burn out.

Also if a Joss Cycle sold for just under $1200 then a Matty should be just as cheap right:confused:

Misunderestimated
01-05-2010, 07:05 PM
I think that this card's "value" increased exponentially the moment it was added as a variation to the PSA set Registry. Whether that is as it should be is another question entirely. ....

Matt E.
01-05-2010, 07:58 PM
I think that this card's "value" increased exponentially the moment it was added as a variation to the PSA set Registry. Whether that is as it should be is another question entirely. ....

Why this card, why now? How does one get a card added as a variation?

Matt E.

Matt
01-05-2010, 09:28 PM
Why this card, why now?

I heard that upon learning you were close to completing your master set, SCD, PSA and SGC all had a meeting and made the decision to add it to their checklists so that you'd have another hurdle to overcome.

chaddurbin
01-05-2010, 10:30 PM
this reminds me of the e97 hartsel variation that was added to the registry a few years ago...as soon as it was "deemed" a legit variation by 3rd party auth. the price must've 3x or 4x right away...LOL! from a $75 common that i'd seen come up multiple times (even bought one from tbob) suddenly jumping to $500-$800. absurd hype for the master set collectors....

seems like most of the long time t205 set collectors have come to a consensus on the matty (registry/pop overhype)...i'd rather have the joss cycle because the matty portrait is kinda creepy with those bug eyes (sorry jim).

lentel
01-05-2010, 11:34 PM
Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

I dont think all the sgc wilhelm hassans are suffered versions. They list the hassans more than once and they specify the word suffered. A little misleading in the totals

Tcards-Please
01-06-2010, 03:28 AM
I dont think all the sgc wilhelm hassans are suffered versions. They list the hassans more than once and they specify the word suffered. A little misleading in the totals

Unless the "suffe ed" version also is found with the Hassan back, then those totals would be correct. If you notice, they have the piedmont listed twice, but we all know that the "suffered" version isn't found with piedmont backs.

Matt E.
01-06-2010, 05:54 AM
I heard that upon learning you were close to completing your master set, SCD, PSA and SGC all had a meeting and made the decision to add it to their checklists so that you'd have another hurdle to overcome.



Matt,
Now that's funny. That's it I'm cracking them all out today.

It really is a pain in the ass hurdle however.

Matt E.

tbob
01-06-2010, 10:40 AM
The Hartsel/Hartsell variation is a good comparison as Quan points out. I was able to get a one "L" Hartsel finally when I decided to complete the master set of E97s. It had already started tailing down from its original high price and I expect the Matty 37-1 to do the same.

Misunderestimated
01-06-2010, 10:12 PM
I don't know how one gets a "variation" included in the PSA (or SGC) registry. When PSA first listed the T205 set, the Wilhelm and Matty (maybe Moran too?) "variations" were not recognized.
As a longtime T205 collector I want to second the post above about the "multipliers" for the Cycle back. The multipliers are basically a myth except for the really scarce backs. Most of the time a seller will not get any more $ for one back than another in the T205 set. Whether its a Piedmont (really common) or Sovereign or American Beauty or Hassan or Cycle or whatever, it makes little if any difference to the vast majority of buyers. The only time the company on the back really "commands a premium" in the market is when the back is one of the really scarce ones like Drum or Hindu.

Chris Counts
01-07-2010, 06:40 AM
I find it hard to believe that anyone was paying $1,000 for a T205 "variation" in 1975 or 1976. I attended card shows then, and I remember picking up sharp cornered T206s, including HOFers, for $1 each!

Pup6913
01-10-2010, 09:18 PM
And I am sure most of us that watched this auction seen the sale end with 0 bidders and a minimum bid of $7500 auction style with a BIN option on the side.:eek:

lentel
01-10-2010, 09:40 PM
I don't know how one gets a "variation" included in the PSA (or SGC) registry. When PSA first listed the T205 set, the Wilhelm and Matty (maybe Moran too?) "variations" were not recognized.
As a longtime T205 collector I want to second the post above about the "multipliers" for the Cycle back. The multipliers are basically a myth except for the really scarce backs. Most of the time a seller will not get any more $ for one back than another in the T205 set. Whether its a Piedmont (really common) or Sovereign or American Beauty or Hassan or Cycle or whatever, it makes little if any difference to the vast majority of buyers. The only time the company on the back really "commands a premium" in the market is when the back is one of the really scarce ones like Drum or Hindu.

Would you say there is a premium for broadleaf backs

Pup6913
01-11-2010, 07:30 AM
Yes Broadleafs carry a premium. Last nice graded BL I seen auction was a Latham (A.Latham version) on Ebay. It sold for $258.78 in a SGC 5. About 2x's the average.

Matt
01-21-2010, 06:30 AM
http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12549

let's hope he doesn't end the listing early.

I wish the description wasn't so aggressive in trying to express the cards rarity by saying it's only one of two graded. Wouldn't it have been sufficient to just use the population reports which indicate it's the 2nd toughest variation behind the Hobby no-stats?

edited to add: that is not my card.

barrysloate
01-21-2010, 07:12 AM
The description is incorrect. All Mathewson Cycles reflect one loss; Goodwin states most show eleven losses and a few don't. Somebody should contact him and have him change it.

Matt
01-21-2010, 07:15 AM
The description is incorrect. All Mathewson Cycles reflect one loss; Goodwin states most show eleven losses and a few don't. Somebody should contact him and have him change it.

Good call - I will email him - if a few others do as well, then hopefully he will fix it...

barrysloate
01-21-2010, 07:22 AM
I'm sure he will fix it. It's a new variation and he may not be familiar with it.

Pup6913
01-21-2010, 08:38 AM
matt I beat you to it this morning. i also sent him links to recent samples for sale also in PSA graded slabs. I hope it does get corrercted

Matt
01-21-2010, 10:33 AM
I'm sure he will fix it. It's a new variation and he may not be familiar with it.

He was kind enough to give me a call just now - he's at the airport and can't change it just now, but will certainly do so as soon as he can. Feels bad that the catalog went out with the factual error and asked if he should pull the listing which I advised against.

Tcards-Please
02-12-2010, 03:44 AM
Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later. :)

Make that two.


Andrew, if you didn't win it, keep your eyes on the BST, as several people will be listing theirs today. :D

The final price w/o buyers premium was $5999.00.

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12549

r/
Frank

Pup6913
02-12-2010, 07:06 AM
yeah frank in a couple yrs the card will be quit a bit less. I am going to wait for the hype to pass before pursuing. I would rather drop $8k on a Hobby no stats.

marcdelpercio
02-12-2010, 10:36 AM
I really don't think the prices on this card will drop much over the long run. I hope they do as this is the only card I'm missing towards a master set. However, consider these factors:

1. This has been accepted as a true variation by at least a large percentage of the collecting community (not trying to reopen that debate but I think the evidence is clear).

2. This is one of the most beautiful cards in the T205 set (if not EVER produced) which is widely popular and collected.

3. This is a top-tier Hall of Fame player.

4. This is a scarce card. With all tracking information that I have seen, I think an estimate of 25-50 known copies is pretty accurate.

If Dick Hoblitzell is commanding 6-8k for a poor grade copy of a print variation from the same set, what makes you think that Christy Mathewson can't be at least in that same ballpark? I realize that the Hoblitzell is probably a bit scarcer...but not much. Given the factors I listed, I'm curious to hear a logical explanation of why anybody feels that this card will drastically decrease in demand/value over the long run.

Rob D.
02-12-2010, 11:15 AM
With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

barrysloate
02-12-2010, 11:35 AM
Marc- in the case of the Hoblitzel card there were two separate print runs, one with the stats and one with the area left blank. And the blank version is of course very scarce.

With regard to the Matty Cycle, it is possible that the 37-11 became 37-1 simply because a small foreign substance got on to the printing plate obscuring the 1. To date we are not sure why this occurred. Thus, all the Cycles have the same very minor flaw.

I do think the card will continue to sell for a premium well above the 37-11 cards, but that premium could grow smaller over time. Just a guess though.

iggyman
02-12-2010, 11:56 AM
They are coming out of the woodwork...

http://cgi.ebay.com/T205-CHRISTY-MATHEWSON-Rare-37-1-Variation_W0QQitemZ230436778511

So I outed an auction to make a point........well worth the demerit.

Lovely Day...

marcdelpercio
02-12-2010, 11:58 AM
Rob,
He DOES have a dark cap and T205's are about the same size as T206's so I think you're being a bit too demanding of the professional graders.

Barry,
I understand that the printing mechanisms and scenarios that produced the variations of the Matty and Hoblitzell cards may be different but I think the end result is the same...a scarce print variation. As I mentioned, I believe that the Hoblitzell is probably slightly scarcer than the Matty, but not by a lot. And given the prices of the variation on a very ordinary player like Hoblitzell, it is reasonable to me to conclude that a similar population print variation of a top-tier HOF'er from the same set could easily match or surpass those values.

barrysloate
02-12-2010, 11:59 AM
The Matty very well may hold its value because that is the nature of this hobby. But I still see it as very minor.

marcdelpercio
02-12-2010, 12:17 PM
I agree that it is a very minor variation but sometimes one letter or number can make a lot of difference in value. Just ask Sherry Magee or Irvin Wilhelm. Seems kinda silly if you really think about it but such is the nature of the hobby I guess. That said, I hope I'm wrong and the values do drop...at least long enough for me to pick one up for a reasonable price. Then it can go nuts again :)

calvindog
02-12-2010, 12:37 PM
With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

This sort of error is on the level of Heine being labeled Honus. There are not many cards that are more iconic than the T206 Mathewson Dark Cap. I would think that every PSA grader has seen this card 100 times.

Rob D.
02-12-2010, 12:42 PM
This sort of error is on the level of Heine being labeled Honus. There are not many cards that are more iconic than the T206 Mathewson Dark Cap. I would think that every PSA grader has seen this card 100 times.

If I get a chance later, I'll scan my red background Cobb that's labeled "Randall Tex."

Leon
02-12-2010, 12:44 PM
With all of the recent interest in T205 Mathewson variations, maybe it's time I consigned my T205/T206 "Dark Cap," proudly displayed in a PSA holder.

Not me...I am holding out for the T205 White cap Matty...btw, I do agree the T205 Matty is one of the best looking cards of any pre-war card. I even have one with a Cycle back but it is the error that says Piedmont. I am trying to get it listed but no luck yet :o.

Jim VB
02-12-2010, 12:57 PM
I even have one with a Cycle back but it is the error that says Piedmont. I am trying to get it listed but no luck yet :o.



Sounds like an over/underprint!

Leon
02-12-2010, 01:10 PM
For some reason there is a chicken print on it....can't figure out why though....(sorry, couldn't help it)

Orioles_1966
03-29-2010, 12:06 AM
There is another Matty cycle back on the Oldjudge (http://www.oldjudge.com/auction/5a/) Auction this week. Will it go as high as the one in 2008?