Investment Potential

[LOUCARDFAN]

I have a friend that is looking to take around $5,000 and invest it into either sports cards or memorabilia to hold onto for 3-5 years. Does anyone have any recommendations on what would be the best to buy for investment purposes?

[Matt]

I don't know that there is a specific right answer to that question, but speaking in generalities, a rare card of a star player is probably the safest bet to appreciate.

[drdduet]

Since you asked, I'll give my opinion...

Stick with Ruth, Cobb, Wagner, Johnson, and Mathewson in the prewar realm--preferably Ruth, Cobb, or Wagner. Get a graded (PSA, BGS/BVG, or SGC) period specimen in Ex or better.


In the post war era I recommend Jackie Robinson, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Mickey Mantle. Nrmt or better specimens have a good upside.

For current players I like Jeter, and in the other sports Peyton Manning, Tiger Woods, and Kobe Bryant. Try to get early auto cards of these guys, preferably rookies. On the modern stuff, I like them BVG graded with an auto grade--strive for a 9.5/10 grade.



For example,


Pre War
PSA 5 1915 Cracker Jack Cobb
SGC 70 E95 Wagner
BVG 5 1933 Goudey Ruth, any pose
PSA 7 M116 Johnson
SGC 60 E95 Cobb
SGC 60 E94 Matty
PSA 6 T206 Cobb--any pose, tougher backs a plus

Post War
PSA 8 1954 Topps Aaron
PSA 7 1952 Topps Mays
PSA 7 1953 Topps Mantle
PSA 8 1955 Bowman Mantle
PSA 8 1949 Bowman Robinson

Modern
BGS 9.5/10 2001 Sp Authentic Tiger Woods
BGS 9.5 1996 Topps Chrome Kobe Bryant
BGS 8/10 1998 Playoff Contenders Rookie Ticket Auto Peyton Manning
BGS 9/10 1993 Sp Authentic Rookie Buyback Auto Derek Jeter

Some other cards with good upside imho,

T206 Hindu's and other tougher backs
1914 and 1915 Cracker Jacks
1933 Sportskings Thorpe and Grange
1949 Bowman and 1953 Topps Satchell Paige
1950's Topps and Bowman Mays's and Aarons
High grade 1950's and 1960's football legends (e.g. Jim Brown & Johnny Unitas)
Modern day rookie autograph/patch cards (esp. from Sp Authentic, Bowman and Topps Chrome, Exquisite)

Good Luck, but most of all have fun...

[jbsports33]

Mickey Mantle has been the best investment in card collecting the last 5 years for me as many collectors keep buying them graded and ungraded. I would also keep investing in any early pre-1973 star Red Sox, Dodgers and Yankees cards some have been listed above. The 19th century market has really done well and interesting items keep coming around, so that is something to look at as well, but it can be a difficult market to jump into.

Good Luck

Jimmy

[mintacular]

plastics

[Robextend]

I don't think you can go wrong with high grade rookie cards of Koufax and Clemente.

[MVSNYC]

as others have mentioned above...ruth, cobb, gehrig, mathewson, mantle, joe d, etc.

i personally would take the $5000 and consider getting a great Ruth or Gehrig signed piece. at that price level you're looking at signed cuts, postcards or checks (with full PSA or JSA LOA). i'd put the piece away and forget about it for a few years...it will NOT go down in value, will most likely go up and give your friend a nice return.

if your friend wants something more modern, i also like Jeter now, you can get a great game-used bat of his for under $2000...in 3-5 years (as he eclipses 3500 hits) i see that same bat (PSA graded 8 or higher) AT LEAST doubling in price. just my opinion.

[drc]

A quality game used baseball bat could be a fair investment, in part as that hobby is growing. You could get a real nice Hall of Famer bat or bats for $5,000. Gameuseduniverse.com is a good collector's site for game used, with many knowledgeable collectors and dealers. Plus, the Mears Auctions often have a good variety of stuff.

One thing is to make sure your initial purchase price is good. A rising market value can be killed by originally paying too much. And, on the other hand, you could still turn a profit on a stable or falling market value if you originally purchased at a bargain. Getting something at a bargain price is always a good thing for the pocket book, whether you're reselling tomorrow or investing for five years.

If you're buying a Willie Mays game used bat, obviously there aren't going to be any half off coupons or Target blue light specials, but be conscious of wanting to pay a fair going price. I won't predict future values, but if you purchase a quality genuine Willie Mays bat, there will still be good demand for such an item in five years.

[Leon]

One thing is to make sure your initial purchase price is good. A rising market value can be killed by originally paying too much. And, on the other hand, you could still turn a profit on a stable or falling market value if you originally purchased at a bargain.

This is what I was thinking as I read the answers. This statement can not be overstated :).

[packs]

I don't think 3-5 years is long enough to make any kind of substantial profit. If you think about it, most of these cards have had to wait nearly 100 years to acrue the value they have. Your friend will have to be more patient.

[Matt]

I don't think 3-5 years is long enough to make any kind of substantial profit. If you think about it, most of these cards have had to wait nearly 100 years to acrue the value they have. Your friend will have to be more patient.

I think plenty of 100 year old cards have gone up quite a bit in the last 5 years; had one invested wisely 5 years ago they would have done quite well.

[uffda51]

All good advice. By all means, don't invest in 1981 Donruss.

I would stick with dead guys. There is nothing new to be learned about Mantle, Ruth or Cobb that could cause their prices to plummet. Current players? Who can say?

[FrankWakefield]

I like what Bruce said. I think that streets, buildings, parks and the like should not be named after folks that are still alive...

Tell your friend that a hobby is a hobby... invest in investments: ie stocks, bonds, an education, home, real estate, mutual funds... delusional to consider cards as investments. It matters not that they have in the past, or might in the future, accrue in value. Might as well buy a new Corvette, jack it up off its wheels, inject oil in the cylinders, cover it, and consider that an investment.

[mintacular]

What if you don't want to invest in other assets (or already have) and decide that cards is where you want to sink some $? If so, which direction do you go? I think if you hold the long view then the pre-war T206 HOFers in nice shape is a safe bet. If you are looking to flip something quickley than perhaps there are other routes to explore. I also think you should consider players that hold popularity beyond just baseball, maybe someone who broke barriers, had historical impact. Jackie Robinson, Clemente come to mind.

[FrankWakefield]

Go right ahead... invest in matchbook covers, too. I have a few old Matchbox cars. And some Dinky toys, mostly military, and mostly pre WW II. I don't consider those investments. Golly, invest in sterling silver state spoons... or cut glass stemware. Jelly glass jars. Happy Meal toys (unopened, of course.)

I taught some eBay classes for a community program a few times. A few 'buying' classes, and a couple of 'selling' classes. One lady was earnestly serious about learning to sell on eBay. As she was getting the hang of it, I asked her what she wanted to sell. She told me she had all of these plate block # commemorative stamps from the 70s and 80s, that she'd bought, and she figured she could sell them for lots of money. I suggested we search a few that were for sale, knowing what we'd find. For the most part, most of them barely sold over face value. She was shattered, but stayed with the class. Plate block commemorative stamps weren't a very good investment, even if that was where she wanted to invest. So if they truly are a friend, steer them away from ball cards.

[mintacular]

Like any good investor, I am not advocating putting all your eggs in one basket (especially ball cards). However, if this individual has decided they want to buy some cards towards this end, there are some cards out there they could purchase today, and perhaps if chosen wisely, could increase in value over time. I don't think the lady you mention is relevant here as late 70s whatever she was interested has no history of past sales, etc. So, the relevant question still remains, what cards are currently undervalued?

[caramelcard]

I agree with frank...except for the stocks part. I'd rather have tangible cards rather than stocks. Stocks are horsepucky.

[ctownboy]

mintacular,

Be careful "investing" in baseball cards. I once had an old time collector (who owns a T206 Wagner and whose collection would be valued well over $1 million dollars now if he still owns everything he did when I was in almost daily contact with him) tell me that he was worried about cards becoming a bubble situation.

He watched what happened to coins after they started to be graded (a bubble and then a crash followed by only true rarites keeping ahead of the inflation rate) and what happened to stamps (especially Hawaiian issues). For a short period of time, they skyrocketed then crashed and only a small percentage have regained the value they had 30 or so years ago.

He was worried that cards wouldn't be collected as much in the future and thus not be as valuable because children were NOT as dedicated to baseball or collecting cards then (2002) as they had been when he was young (late 1940's and early 1950's) or when I was young (mid to late 1970's).

This man was worried that graded cards would skyrocket in value and because of that, the "average" collector would be priced out of the market.

He was also worried that graded cards would increase in value and that would, in turn, cause people to trim cards or do other things to falsely cause cards to go up in price. He said if enough of this happened and too many people got burned then the trust in cards and graders would be gone and people would dump their "investments" and never return (like they had done with stamps years before)..

He said this would ESPECIALLY be true of people who "invested" in cards instead of just being happy in collecting and owning them for what they were.

He advised me that if I was accumulating cards just for financial reasons then I should either get totally out of cards or only put into cards what I felt I could be comfortable with losing if their value fell to zero.

The last time I saw him was the Summer of 2007 and he was selling a LOT of his cards because he saw the economic crisis coming and wanted to be prepared for it and sitting in cash.

[FrankWakefield]

Amen.

It reminds me of one fine article in an old Smithsonian magazine about Tulipmania.

[mintacular]

I am as cynical about card value as the next guy. I grew up in the late 80s collecting and the "value" of those cards dropped x1000. I do not have starry eyes thinking my cards will increase all that much but also believe some basic understanding of supply and demand can help people put together a collection today that can be cashed out in the future.

[JeremyW]

Your mentor was very smart. I think he may have underestimated the power of baseball though. Baseball will survive through the next 100 years & remain very popular & as it rebuilds its popularity people will spend & spend on the early history.

[egbeachley]

Very prudent suggestions lately.

As far as the advice always given that one should invest in the high grade, rare, or HOF'ers, I'm not so certain. They are already expensive or fully valued. I would think that like all investments, buy low then sell high. To me that would be mid-grade T206's that have recently lost some value. Don't look at a nice T206 Cobb for $5,000 rising to $7,000 as being better than 100 common T206's for $50 each going to $80 each.

[ullmandds]

I agree with drddut...buy as many e94 mattys as you can find...these will outperform any other card!:):):) Sorry...I couldn't resist. I think any of the hobby rarities...t206 wags...plank...rare backs...o'hara/demmit st louis...cobbs...ruths...gehrigs...mantles...ruth/gehrig autographed itmes...type I photos of HOF'ers...goudey Lajoie...there are tons more that would be fantastic investments in my happiness!:)

[mark evans]

I agree with Frank and ctown. I don't see how past performance provides any assurance of the future value of any particular card. Perhaps the closest to a sure thing, in my view, would be vintage (and preferably scarce)cards of players elected in the future to the Hall of Fame.

Mark

[sreader3]

Best investment: The sets Louchios and Spence will be starting next. :)

I can't agree with the statement that certain cards are "expensive" or "fully valued." Relative to what? The supply of vintage BB cards is nearly fixed, so prices should fluctuate with changes in demand. It's hard to say what will happen to demand in the next five years--or fifty years for that matter.

[ctownboy]

Things to consider;

1) Do NOT count on whales to continue to support the market. I would say there are very few of them around and all it takes is for a couple to stop collecting and sell their cards and prices will go down. This could happen because they lose their high paying jobs, their stock or real estate portfolios tank, they get sued and lose, they get divorced or they die and their heirs have no interest in the cards but HUGE interest in the cash they would generate when they are sold.

Also, from what I have heard of the whales, most are good or great in business but not all would be considered really interested in baseball itself. So, as long as cards in general (and certain cards in particular) continue to increase in value, these whales will still be interested in "collecting" and still want to own cards. However, if the T206 Wagner, or a lot of the lesser rarities start going down in value then these guys will start downsizing their collections.

If things start to snowball, some of the other whales will want out and they will sell their cards. Even if you are a whale, the idea of losing $1 million dollars (or more) on cards would be a tough pill to swallow.

If (when?) this happens, those whales who are more into "collecting" because of the possible monetary gains (and not the sport or cards themselves) sell their collections they will likely NOT return to cards but will go off into some other area to try and make money.

Less money chasing fewer cards means a downdraft for everything. If a rising tide raises all ships then the opposite is also true.

2) I was born in 1967 and grew up in a small town. My high school graduating class was about 160 people. Let's say half of those people were male. That is about 80 guys in my class.

When I was collecting cards around 1979 or 1980, I can remember at least 10 other guys in my own class who also collected cards. That is about 14% of all the guys in my 8th grade class who collected. That figure doesn't count guys who I didn't know collected cards, guys who occasionally bought some packs to open but who really didn't "collect" cards or ANY girls in my class who might have collected.

By the time I graduated, most of those guys didn't collect any more and I had bought a few of their collections. I seriously doubt if many of those guys ever started collecting again.

Now compare that to middle school children of today. How many of them are SERIOUS baseball (or other sports) card collectors? I bet very few are. I have four Nephews and a Niece who are between the ages of 7 and 18 and NONE of them collect cards.

My 18-year old Nephew used to collect Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh cards but he stopped doing that years ago. Now, he spends what extra money he has on video games and his car. He has ZERO interest in collecting baseball cards. The ONLY thing he is interested in, as far as my collection goes, is how much it would be worth if I sold it. Same goes for the other four.

I would say THAT is what a majority of kids are like today. Little or no interest in collecting cards or knowing about the history of baseball or the players but HUGE interest in how much these little pieces of artwork would be worth if sold.

Also, when you tell them that a certain card is valued at or could be sold for $300, they either 1) say they couldn't afford that card even if they wanted to collect ball cards or 2) (most likely) say that $300 dollars could buy them a game console and a few games or a cell phone and a calling plan.

So, with few kids collecting today and the prices so high on the older cards that entry is tough, the future of collecting doesn't look bright to me. Especially considering most everything is going digital and things actually made of paper are becoming fewer and far between.

Face it, newspaper circulation is decreasing because people are reading the news on their computers. Book sales are either decreasing or staying flat because people can either download a book off the web and onto their computers or use some other electronic means to buy and store a book. I imagine in 20 years or so, kids who want to collect "old" baseball cards will be doing so by gathering images on their electronic devices and storing their "collections" on a microchip instead of a shoe box or binder in their closet.

3) Just because a card is old and rare doesn't mean it is really valuable or that it is going to skyrocket in value. For example, I have 16 (out of a currently possible 73) Star Player Candy cards from 1928. Three of the players are Hall of Famers (but not Ruth, Gehrig or Cobb). I would say there are no more than five cards (if that) known for each of the cards I own. That would put them in the "old" and "rare" category.

Guess what? I would not even be close to being able to retire if I sold these cards. Because the cards are so rare and not very well known, nobody really is trying to complete a set. That means no whales competing against each other. The only real interest in these cards are as a type card or for a certain player for a certain reason.

If I wanted to sell these cards today, I would be lucky if the Hall of Famers sold for $1,000 each and the commons for $400 a piece. I have been offered $1,000 dollars for one common card because a guy collects that ONE player and NEEDS him. If this collector finds another 1928 SPC card of this player, interest in my card will drop to nearly zero.

I also have another common card which might reach $1,000 dollars but that is only because he is a Jewish player.

So, 16 "old" and "rare" cards that would sell for less than $10,000 dollars, combined. Good money but not anything to really write home about, as far as the whales are concerned and no real price spike in the forseeable future.

[barrysloate]

What's been touched upon and should be considered seriously is we are experiencing a generational shift in the baseball card collecting hobby. The baby boomers who spent most of their childhood collecting cards, and who were responsible for their renaissance, are getting older and are beginning to cash in. There's a new generation of hobbyists taking their place, but they did not grow up collecting cards and are probably smaller in number. I would be wary of looking at baseball cards today as purely an investment. Not saying they won't appreciate in value, but probably not anywhere near what we saw between say 1985 and 2005.

Why not simply build a nice collection of quality cards and memorabilia, and hopefully when the time comes to sell others also will recognize how nice it is. If you have a good eye and know how to buy desirable material, you probably will make some money on it in the long term. But don't expect to see the crazy price increases we've see seen during this past decade. That was as much a bubble as anything else.

[wpeters]

I started reading this board maybe 6 years ago and, after not having collected baseball cards in years, decided to buy some pre-war hall of famers. My collecting budget was very small and I bought mostly mid grade to lower grade cards. I bought tobacco, caramel, exhibits and strip cards along with Goudey and other regular issues. I did not pay over $75 for any card, and the vast majority of them were in the $30-50 range.

About two years ago I had to sell them and was shocked at what the prices were. I made just over 5 times what I had paid. I thought that was an incredible increase in just 4 years. I thought cards had reached their full value back then.

So my question is this, and it's a serious one:

What pre-war card hasn't increased in value in the last 6 years?

I'm sure there will be some exceptions, especially in the high grade market where only a few collectors determine a card's value. But, overall, I think the market for pre-war HOFers will continue to rise.

Walt

[Bill Stone]

I for one like to "invest" in a card that I can bring out of my desk draw, look at , and it makes me smile. If it goes up in value over the years that is an added bonus but if it brings me a daily smile it is priceless --there are a few T210 cards that I think would be wise investments.

[bosoxphan]

I don't think its dependent on the kids for atleast the next 50 years or so. Card collecting was huge in the 70's and 80's and those "kids" are just now entering their prime earning years. Those are the whales of the near future.

[Rich Klein]

"Face it, newspaper circulation is decreasing because people are reading the news on their computers. Book sales are either decreasing or staying flat because people can either download a book off the web and onto their computers or use some other electronic means to buy and store a book. I imagine in 20 years or so, kids who want to collect "old" baseball cards will be doing so by gathering images on their electronic devices and storing their "collections" on a microchip instead of a shoe box or binder in their closet."

Not only that; but music as well. When we were growing up you had to buy a record or a tape or a CD (depending on your age). NOW, all you need to do is listen on a computer OR use a device such as an IPod and download songs to that.

The need for "stuff" in today's world is much less than it was a few years ago.
Heck, yesterday Amazon.Com announced they sold more ebooks for the holiday season than they did physical books.

Rich

P.S. For "investing:" $5K in cards, I'd find the best condition cards available of the best players that you can. You won't get anywhere near a T206 Wagner but you could get a nice portfolio of a VG Goudey Ruth; A NM mid career Mantle; and a few other baubles. A very safe portfolio with little downside.

[Exhibitman]

I would dissuade him from investing blindly in cards. Just like any other form of investment cards require study and knowledge of the markets and issues. You wouldn't buy a bundle of mortgage loans blindly, right...ok, bad example.

[yanksfan09]

As a young collector (27), I too am uncertain about the long term investment potential of cards for the generational reasons previously stated. However, it seems to me that currently many people are uncertain for the long term investment potential in almost all areas (stocks, bonds etc...). There are many Geo-political, environmental etc... factors that have people uneasy.

Either way, I've been hooked on cards since I was about 8 years old and will collect them until I die, regardless of value/price.

For a 3-5 up to maybe 10 year investment I would feel comfortable staying with the true immortal/legendary players such as Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Wagner, Mantle etc.... I would stick with hitters as opposed to pitchers. A card of one of these type of players from their playing days is essential. Buy an attractive card and strive for a lesser seen issue, but it doesn't have to be exceedingly rare. And buy it in the best condition for the best price you can find. Be patient and wait for the right deal to come about.

[barrysloate]

Erick- it's certainly true we are living in an era where things change quickly and we never really know what to expect next. That makes it harder for us to make good choices whatever we are doing. I still maintain if you put together a quality collection of scarce cards, learn about them, keep adding to them over a long period of time, and have patience you will probably do fine and what you have will appreciate in value. But like others, I am leery of the idea of a 3-5 year investment portfolio. Those things don't always work out.

[vintagechris]

Tell him to buy silver. I also like presidential autographs. They will always be part of American history and I think will always be sought after. They are also a bargain if you compare them to baseball autographs.

[yanksfan09]

Barry- Agree and exercising patience for the right deal is key. I also want to echo the potential of signed checks of certain players. However, you need to do a lot of homework before buying any signed stuff.

[barrysloate]

Your chances of making money on anything increase dramatically if you study and learn as much about it as possible. Too many people invest without really knowing what they are doing, and often they are disappointed with the results.

[ctownboy]

bosoxphan,

I somewhat disagree. Like I said before, I am 42 and could count at least 10 other guys just from my graduating clas who collected cards in middle school. But ALL of them stopped collecting by the time they were 18 and I doubt they have started collecting again even though they probably have children of their own right now.

One guy I know did NOT start collecting again because he died years ago and he was the one who had the best collection of all of us (his Dad gave him his cards he had collected in the 1950's).

Also, people my age are stuck. When we were born there weren't many of us to begin with. Look at the population reports and you will seee there is a bottleneck between the Baby Boomers and the Gen X'ers. I and people my age, am stuck in that bottleneck.

For the most part, we had to wait for the better jobs because the Baby Boomers were still alive and working. Look at the Fortune 500 companies and the people at the top of those companies. Look at their ages. How many 40 to 45 years olds do you see? Not many. Those companies are still led by people 50 and older. Lower down the chain of command you will find people my age but you will also find plenty of Boomers there also.

So, there weren't many of us to begin with and we have been stuck, as far as advancing to the top levels of business. This means our incomes haven't been as high as the generation before us, the ones who are now at the top of the business chain and who are the whales.

Then there is the Gen X'ers behind us. The people who not only knew how to use computers but who also knew how to build them and write code for them. They are the ones who started the tech companies and who made the big bucks. Not many people my age are on the list of tech company founders.

Look at the ages of the guys who started Youtube and Face Book. They are younger than me and worth a heck of a lot more money than me. I seriously doubt they are into collecting baseball cards.

This is why I am pessimistic about "whales" my age or younger emerging in the baseball card collecting market. There are either less people they can develop from (my generation) or the larger group (Gen X) is interested in other things.

[ctownboy]

yanksfan09,

See, it is people like YOU who are going to have to become "whales" to keep the hobby alive and the prices going up. People who have "loved" cards since they were young and who continued to collect them.

How many of your friends still collect cards? If they don't collect, how many do you think might want to start again? If there are any, how many of those would go into vintage cards? Of those, how many have the incomes or other assets to become "whales"?

I am not saying people my age and younger wont still collect cards, I am just saying that there aren't going to be as many of us and with the smaller demand, the prices wont continue to go up as fast and will probably actually decrease because of the supply that is going to be hitting the market over the next 20 years (with the deaths of the Boomers who have the large collections).

Also, if the younger kids DO collect cards, they are ONLY going to want to collect Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers cards. That is because ESPN, Fox and TBS basically only show televise games of thsoe teams on a regular basis.

When I was young, I lived in a small town in Indiana and didn't have cable TV. I had to rely on the NBC Game of the Week or box scores from the newspaper to follow players on a national basis. The local TV station out of Louisville would occasionally show some Reds games and I would try to listen to as many games on radio as possible.

Because of all of that, I grew up a Reds fan and have continued to be one (hard to do these last nine years LOSING years).

Over the last 20 years, that hasn't been the case. If you had cable or satellite, you could watch more games and become a fan of a team OUTSIDE of your local geographic area.

Over the last few years, with the major networks shoving the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Dodgers down the throats of viewers (I have basically STOPPED watching baseball on tv because of this, even the World Series) young kids living in rural Indiana are NOW just as likely to be a Yankees fan as a kid living in Manhattan. That is if they are watching baseball on TV at all.

So, there is ANOTHER reason why I am pessimistic about collectors in the future - they will only know and care about just a few teams and players who played for those teams.

Joey Votto is a REALLY good player for the Reds BUT, unless he is traded to or signs with one of the LARGE MARKET TEAMS, he will remain virtually unknown. That means unless his cards are made out of pure gold, he isn't going to have many people interested in collecting him.

[BlueDevil89]

ctownboy,

You've really put a lot of thought into possible scenarios that could cause the card market to fall. However, you can develop hypothetical scenarios that would provide logical arguments for the bubble-burst effect for any investment vehicle (stocks, real estate, bonds, etc). Fluctuations will continue in all market segments. That is why it is highly recommended that one have diversified investment holdings. Collectibles can be a valuable part of a balanced portfolio. Being overweighted in any one investment category increases one's level of risk.

Concerning baseball cards, a good rule of thumb is that if you have so much money tied up in little pieces of cardboard that it makes your uneasy all day and keeps you awake at night, you probably need to pare down your collection a bit. The same would go for any holding.

Fortunately, baseball's following continues to expand. Just because a certain segment of the population does not seem interested in collecting cards today, does not mean that the hobby is doomed in the long-term. On the contrary, the "collecting" gene is likely to remain strong in the population of future generations. Baseball fans who are fortunate to have a generous supply of disposable income will continue to pour new dollars into our favorite hobby. They may not be in a financial position to do so until their 30s, 40s or beyond, but the vintage market is really driven the 30+ age group anyway.

My greatest fear is the potential failing of paper, not cardboard. With the US government racking up debt levels in the trillions, the risk of a dollar collapse followed by runaway inflation may be a more likely scenario than a baseball card bubble. Cash is king, except during times of hyper-inflation --- then it's better to have the cash invested vs. in the bank, CDs, or the mattress.

That's the fear that keeps me up at nights...that inflation may hit so hard one day that I might not be able to afford to keep adding prize cards to my vintage collection.

Anyway, Happy New Year (...and Happy Collecting)!

[mdschulze]

From reading these threads, it appears to me that there are 3 categories most baseball collectors fall into: 1) those who strictly "collect" to make money, 2) those who collect solely for the sake of loving cards, and 3) those who collect because they love cards but will also sell a few off if the prices are right.

I'm a category 2. Once a card is in my collection it will never leave as long as I have a say in the matter. Do I care what the cards are worth? A little, but if they were valued at zero I would still purchase cards for the sake of collecting. With that mindset, to me the values are secondary. I spend money on cards as if I were going to Vegas to play the slots. First, I only spend "extra" money. Second, if I spend $500 - $1000 and lose... it hurts but oh well! It's not like that was my retirement investments. Besides, the market will never drop to the point where you'll see T206 Cobbs going for $5.00. So unlike the slots in Vegas, your chances of going broke on cards is 0%. You will always be able to get something back for them

Also, as long as the miracle stories keep hitting the media like granny finding a card in her attic and trying to sell on Ebay for $10 when it's worth $50k or a 206 Wagner is bought at an estate sale for $1.00 then sold for $500k, I think the public will still be interested in baseball cards.

[Exhibitman]

That's the fear that keeps me up at nights...that inflation may hit so hard one day that I might not be able to afford to keep adding prize cards to my vintage collection.



Yeah but the cards you already have would be going up in price too. So the key is buy now and buy heavy while inflation is tame and cards are at lower prices than in past years.

Besides, there are better things to be afraid of at night. Like circus clowns.

[Fred]

$5K to burn....

Lets look at the recent history of card price escalation. In about 20 years the value of the cardboard has increased dramatically. The past ten years alone saw huge increases in valuations. IMO to think that prices are going to increase at the same rate would be a bit overly optimistic. But then again, who knows what the future holds. Maybe the number of people that held in an interest in the sport will start to dwindle and thus the number of people intersted in buying these pieces of cardboard will decrease. Basic economics - supply and demand. We all see what happened in the 80's and 90's - the frenzy for rookie cards killed the affordability of cards for the foundation of the hobby - KIDS. With less kids interested there will be less of a demand as these KIDS grow into their adulthood. With so many people getting burned in the "rookie card craze" there will be less people interested in throwing their dollars at this hobby.

Ok, maybe that's a doom and gloom theory but I hope it holds true because if this stuff hits bottom I want to buy every piece that I've always wanted. Why? Because I don't look at this stuff as an investment - I actually enjoy it.

I'm now stepping down from my soap box...

[mintacular]

There are a whole lot more reasons why the hobby has suffered than the rookie card craze of the 80s...In terms of collecting for "joy" only, collecting during my generation is much different than yours in this regard. When I collected, Beckett Price guides arrived each month with up arrows indicating that my '89Griffey UD had just jumped from $40 to $80--thus there was always a cash element to collecting (unfortunately). In short, my generation never fully experienced the pure joy of collecting as previous ones had. Fortunately for me, I learned to appreciate the cards per se admist this speculation time era, especially during later years.

[ctownboy]

bluedevil89,

The BIG difference I see between coins, precious metals, gemstones, artwork and even Ferraris, Lamborghinis and Porsches, is that those OTHER collectibles either have some sort fo inherent value or they have a WORLD WIDE market for them.

American coins STILL have value even if they are badly worn and are barely readable.

Gold and silver have value no matter if they are in ingot form, or are in coins or jewelry.

Precious stones, artwork and automobiles have value because people aroudn the world want those items.

King Farouk of Egypt had a great coin collection and many of them were American rarities.

Wealthy people in India and the Middle East buy precious stones as a store house for value.

Ralph Lauren has a collection of Ferraris, Mercedes and Bugatti's that is valued at over $50 million dollars. If worst came to worst, he could still, at least, DRIVE those automobiles if he had to.

As far as vintage baseball cards, what inherent value or utility do they have? Can you take them to the store and use them as currency? Or to the bank and put them in your savings account?

Does their value fluctuate based on the current price of paper?

Baseball is prety much only followed in North America, Central America, South America, the Caribbean nations and Japan. Other than America, who or where is there a LOT of great baseball card collections?

Tell me, is there a person or people in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela or Japan who have a large and valuable vintage American baseball card collection?

Are the Chinese hoarding cards?

Are the shieks using their oil revenue to amass collections?

The answer to all of these questions, in my opinion, is probably not.

Collecting vintage baseball cards is mostly an American phenomenon and the cards themselves have little or no inherent value, except, of course, if you were hungry and needed something to eat or were cold and needed fuel for a fire.

This is why I say, using my previous opinions and compared to many other collectibles, which have a WORLD WIDE appeal, vintage baseball cards don't have as much upside as many people would like to think and hope they do.

[ctownboy]

Also, as far as my collecition goes, compared to MANY on this board, it isn't valued at very much (probably less than $30,000 dollars) and I haven't spent very much putting it together.

As I said previously, I grew up in a small town in Indiana and there were not very many baseball cards shops in my area. Even if there were, I didn't have a lot of money to spend on cards to begin with.

When I first started collecting cards, in 1977, I would ride my bicycle around town and the country roads and pick up glass soft drink bottles to redeem and aluminum cans to recycle. The money I made from these endeavors, I would take to the small local convenience store and buy packs with. When I was older, I mowed four yards a week to make money.

By the time I was in high school and had a car, I was able to get a "real" job but a LOT of the money I made from that went for gasoline, insurance and maintenance for my car. The savings I had up to that point went into buying some of my friends baseball collections.

When I went to college, I started selling some of my collection to pay bills but also to buy more collections. I bought one large collection which, for a short period of time, allowed me to be a dealer at some small shows in Indianapolis. It was during this time that I started getting REALLY interested in vintage (pre WWII) cards and memorabilia. That was because I had the time to go out and look for that type of stuff and also a little bit of money to actually spend on it when I found it.

Unfortunately, I didn't have nearly enough money because I had to pass up a LOT of good deals I found. Some of the things I had to pass up were four different finds, totaling probably 300, B18 blankets. Included in these were at least five Walter Johnson's and three Ty Cobbs. Total price for all? Less than $1,200 dollars or $4 dollars a blanket. Over 1000 tobacco cards from the 1880's. These were mostly things like fish, chickens, actresses, hold to light playing cards, Dudes and Worlds Smokers but also some N28's including Clarkson, Keefe, Caruthers, Annie Oakley, boxers, pugilists and other sports.

During this time, I also found but couldn't afford, a Kalamazoo Bats card with an ad back $600 dollars), a couple of K Bats team cards (Detroit for about $4,000 each), a Stevens Fire Arms ink blotter in really nice condition (common player, $200 dollars), an 1898 Cincinnati Reds season pass made out of sterling silver ($4,000 dollars), 13 Fatima team cards ($800 dollars), about 20 different Curtis Ireland Candy cards including Ty Cobb plus some E120 American Caramel cards ($1,000 dollars) about 20 different W502's including Ruth and Gehrig ($400 dollars), an E125 American Caramel Honus Wagner ($395 dollars), a small size Honus Wagner decal bat ($1,500 dollars), a Christy Mathewson Fan for a Fan ($3,500 dollars) and numerous other small finds or newer (1950's - 1960's) cards and memorabilia.

All told, for less than $30,000 dollars, I estimate I could have amassed a collection worth over $250,000 dollars today. When I say this, I mean these were items I found at antique stores, malls or shows, paper shows, small auctions and ads I put in newpapers. It was NOT me going to large auction houses and buying items from them or buying items from sports card dealers. In short, they were items I found.

Because I have never had a LOT of money of my own, the MOST I have ever spent on a baseball item was about $300 dollars. That was for a Lou Gehrig autograph model ball glove in bad condition which I turned around and traded for an S81 silk of Ed Walsh.

The first pre-WWII card I ever bought was a T206 Ty Cobb bat off shoulder. I paid $50 dollars for it around 1980. Yes, I overpaid for it but, again, I was from a small town and didn't have access to a lot of dealers or shops. I still own this card. Most of the other T206's (and T205's) I own I bought in one lot at a small auction for $3 dollars a piece.

My 16 Star Player Candy cards I bought at one time (with a Shotwell's Candy football card of Red Grange). I paid between $3 and $5 dollars a piece for each card and later I sold the Red Grange card. So, I have less than $2 dollars invested in each of these 16 cards.

I bought 42 B18 blankets at auction, including a Cobb and Walter Johnson and paid $325 for the whole lot.

I bought eight N172 Old Judge cards at an auction and the lot included an Anson, a Ewing and a Rusie. I paid $800 for everything.

As you can see, my collection was put together on the cheap because 1) I didn't have a lot of money to spend to begin with and 2) I put in many hours looking and and many miles of driving. So, even though I could sell what I own and pay off a lot of my debt, I enjoy what I own and have put in a LOT of work to be able to acquire these pieces.

Plus, if I did actually sell them, because of the rarity of some of these things, I would have a hard time replacing them even if I did have the money to do so.

In conclusion, if the market tanks and my collection becomes worthless, unlike many people, I have NOT put a LOT of money into it and thus will have mostly lost only "paper" profits. Can a "whale" who has spent a couple of hundred thousand dollars buying a T206 Wagner at a major auction say the same thing?

[barrysloate]

Ctownboy- you know, I actually read everything you wrote...that was a very long story.

[smtjoy]

Good thread.

I see what you are saying ctownboy but if what you said is true then cards should not have any value right now because of their lack of inherent value and world wide appeal. Not only do they have a strong current value, over the last 10-20 years many have had large monentary increases.

While I centainly don't know how cards will do in the future, I am happy to spend the amount of money I do regardless of what they will do (I fall into group 3, I collect cards but im very aware of the values and flip them when I choose).

I do not think cards make a good investment over the long haul but I believe the same for all collectible and with the investment market in such a mess it really is a unique storm as far as where to put ones investment money.

I do know that I have been collecting my little niche of exhibits and clemente cards for a long while and because of my knowledge in those area I have been able to outpreform the market in general for cards. I know the cards to stay away from that have been going down (PSA 8 topps clementes and common 47-66 exhibits), I pick up cards and flip that are priced too low and I know the cards I am ready to overpay for if they appear on the market (58 kahns, 68 venz topps, 31-32 ruth, 25 terry, 23-24 bottomly, etc).

I guess what I am trying to say is the only way to really do above market is to have an area where you are an expert and you can use that knowledge to your advantage. It does not mean you all always make money but you will cut your losses in a downward market and outpreform in an upward one. Granted I think this advice applies to all collectibles as well as investment markets. Knowledge is king.

[ctownboy]

Mr. Sloate,

Thank you for taking the time to read what I wrote. I am sure there are MANY who will just see the length of the post and skip over it. Their time and their decision. :( All I can do is post my thoughts and opinions and hope that people are interested in what I have to say and that I am making some sort of meaningful contribution to the board.

If I am NOT doing this, then I hope people will let me know (in a fairly nice and/or polite manner) and I will stop or reduce my posting.

When I first went to college, I wanted to major in journalism so that I could, hopefully, become a sports writer. What I soon discovered was the following;

1) I wasn't very good
2) I didn't have a lot of experience or contacts
3) Competition for jobs was tremendous
4) There wasn't a lot of money in it

So, I switched majors.

That being said, I am OFTEN, criticised for being wordy.

[BlueDevil89]

ctownboy,

I'm not worried about the level of card collecting interest in China or the Middle East. Those regions have not supported this hobby and we will not need them to do so in the future. The demand for cards will continue to come from the US economy as it always has.

Why are you worrying if the whales overpay for cards? By their nature, they overpay for things. They don't want to wait for bargains --- they don't have to, they're rich. If they pay top dollar to own things today, and lose interest and dump them for a loss tomorrow, so what. Being rich means never having to cry over a capital-gains-loss write-off.

Yes, pieces of cardboard have no intrinsic value. However, neither do the skills of hitting, fielding, and pitching a stitched piece of horsehide. Yet this simple sport generates billions of dollars of revenue each year because people love the game of baseball and have been passing this passion down from generation to generation for more than 150 years.

[FrankWakefield]

ctown... I was bicycling in 1964, doing the same thing. Coke bottles brought 4 cents, Pepsi and RCs 3 cents. I could find them in ditches along roads... I'd check the ditches on Saturday mornings, and usually get enough bottles to get 6 to 8 packs of cards...

And I read the posts.

An old collector of motor cars once explained to me that the value of Model T's peaked a few years ago, when men reaching retirement with spare money could indulge themselves by buying an old car they'd once had... He said the demand bubble peaked with that demographic. And that as those guys died off, the demand for those cars decreased a bit, and prices fell. (I never drove a Model T as a kid or as a first car, so I'm not as interested in having one as someone who did.) I understand that it isn't the same with ball cards. None of us saw Christy Mathewson pitch. (My great uncle did tell me about catching a train up to Detroit to pick up a car to drive back down to Kentucky. He went to a Tigers game, he told me about seeing Cobb getting a hit off of Walter Johnson, and stealing a base...) So we'll still collect Mathewson cards, and the old cards. But there is a slight effect to card collecting. Will any of you admit that you draw the line at the 20th century, and don't buy Old Judges?

There are collectors out there who draw the line at 1952, because of the big Topps, and collect only forward from there. Those guys don't look at this board. We here aren't a fair sampling of ball card collectors.

The crass, hard-hearted, cynical side of me makes me think that if folks would invest in an education then they'd see that pouring money into a ball card collecton isn't investing. Not even if you want it to be.

[barrysloate]

Ctownboy- a bit wordy perhaps, but a lot of sincerity, something you don't see every day...and please call me Barry.:)

[bosoxphan]

I feel very comfortable in the demand profile for vintage cards over the next 10-15 years. After that who knows but are there really any investments outside real estate that you can forsee the future 20 years from now? Certainly not company stocks. The companies that dominated 20 years ago are very different than the ones leading the landscape now.

[Exhibitman]

Actually, Frank, I don't care for OJs; I just don't like the aesthetics.

I don't think the doom and gloom predictors or the endless market rise predictors are accurate. It is just silly to think that the hobby will crater (absent of course a total cratering of everything else) and it is equally silly to think that we will see T206 prices double in real terms over the next five years. We are not likely ever to see a National like the 1991 Anaheim show, nor, frankly, would I want to. The market for new shiny crap is 1/10 of what it was, but I have to question whether it ever should have been so crazy in the first place. I recall setting up with vintage cards at local shows next to guys selling 100-card bricks of Griffey, Sheffield and other hot rookies (Gregg Jeffries anyone?) in the early 1990s and knowing that there was something inherently wrong with the money changing hands on those deals. The only thing I've seen that was comparable was the real estate market in 2006-2007. The bottom line for the hobby is that about 70 million tickets are sold to baseball games every season. I do not see that pool of fans withering away. Some of them will read up on the history of the sport, will discover this site, and will become addicts just like us. I also see lots of collectors younger than me (more it seems every year I age) who haven't hit their peak earning years yet. They'll get there and the hobby will go on. Like those frothy heights, the current doldrums are out of whack and will pass as the economy passes through the rough patch. The same thing happened in the early 1980s. I know I'd be buying more cards at today's prices if I had the cash.

30 years is a long time, relatively speaking. It can be an entire career. Cards have a track record over 30 years of being pretty decent alternative investments. Like anything else, of course, there are some elements that are better than others and some that were just dum [sic] in the first place. The two constants, however, have been rarity and HOFers. Rare cards and memorabilia of the top players trump everything else for security and for return on investment.

As far as the question posed in this thread, in all candor, $5,000 is peanuts for investment purposes. At 10% year over year it would not even reach $90,000 in 30 years. And yes, I will take that ROI every day; my point is that $5,000 isn't going to make anyone rich or break anyone's back (if it might, don't risk it--put it in an insured account), so we're not really talking about big, life-altering money. If I was going to plunk $5K into the card market now without any real expertise in cards, I would look to purchase a variety of top-flight HOFers from rarer issues. I would avoid 'fad' things like rookie cards, modern gimmick cards, and high grade plastic (slabs), simply because of their volatility. I'd probably also take a chunk of the money and buy a Ruth check or a Cobb check if I could find a reasonably priced one. I really don't think you could go wrong with that. Now, if you want to gamble, my bet would be to go to the National and hunt raw cards for slabbing. I have spotted and slabbed some really high end commons over the last few years--nothing like pulling a few top slabs from raw commons to make your investment day--but it requires a good eye for what the graders want (education) and some luck and persistence slogging through piles of crap to get the few gems. I don't really consider that investment, though; more like placing a bet on a number in roulette.

[ctownboy]

bluedevil89,

I am not concerned about what the "whales" pay for things or what they collect. However, in the context of this thread, I am trying to point out that "investing" in cards may not be a wise thing to do, no matter what card or set you go after.

When "whales" spend their money, either wisely or follishly, they are creating a demand in the market which I can not do.

With the advent of graded cards, auction houses dedicated to sports memorabilia and the internet, "whales" have an easier time finding things to buy and somewhat more assurance of what they are buying as being authentic. When they spend, all ships elevate with a rising tide. So, if they want to buy rare back T206s and go after them hard, prices go up. Same with Wilson Frank cards or anything else they throw their money at.

The problem is, what happens when they STOP throwing money at a card or a set? What happens if and when they become disinterested in collecting cards and/or memorabilia or they die? Where is the demand going to come from to keep the prices as high as they are or to increase them?

Are foreigners going to magically come into the market? They haven't done so in the last 10 years so why start now?

Are young people going to step in? If so, WHERE are they going to get the money from? T206 Wagners in VG condition go for what, $150,000 or $200,000 thousand dollars. How many people 40 and younger collect cards AND have that type of cash to throw around on ONE card?

How much do common T206's go for now as compared to 10 years ago? How much has the price increase in those cards been because of Baby Boomers using their money to buy cards? WHat happens when they STOP buying cards or they die? WHat happens when the heirs start putting all of that product onto the market?

If the person who started this thread (or their friend) is wanting to know about investing in cards and which one or ones are going to go up in value they also have to be told about the downside. What I have been posting about is the downside I see (and also the risks my mentor has warned me about).

Again, if my collection drops to ZERO value, I will be a little upset BUT I wont panic. That is because I haven't spent a lot to put it together and I didn't start out collecting thinking about making huge bucks and retiring early.

I bought what I liked and what I could afford.

[ctownboy]

Thank you Barry and please call me David. :)

[bosoxphan]

There will be new whales imo. Know quite a few collectors in their 30's (of which im one) who spend thousands on single cards. Not whales yet but the whales weren't whales in their 30's either.
If future generations is the key to any collectibles market than i can't think of a single one who's going to be around long term. I know very few youngish coin collectors, art collectors, etc.

[rhettyeakley]

I had felt the way alot of the posters here do several years ago when I was in my mid 20's. At that time I really didn't know many people my age collecting vintage cards. However, I am 32 now and I have met so many young collectors between 25-35 years old over the past few years that I am actually fairly optimistic about the future of our little hobby.

I think you may actually see an increase in collectors of vintage cards over the coming years that were born and collected during the "rookie card craze" of the 1980's, people like me. I (along with most of my friends) collected cards and we were really into it, however, like most young people I completely lost interest in cards between ages 18-22 or so as I spent time studying and chasing skirts. But once I began to have an actual income and my "collecting gene" began to kick in again I went back to what I knew (baseball cards) and changed my focus to the things that had actually held their value over the years (vintage). In short, I think many people from my generation could come back as they begin to have discretionary income to play with.

-Rhett

[ChiefBenderForever]

I had a pretty nice newer basketball card collection and I think many of you would be shocked to see what kids are spending on new 'Exquisite' basketball cards. Rookies who have never even played go for more than 1000.00. They came out when Lebron, Carmello, and Wade were RCs and the Lebron rc goes for 5-10k which is insane. Anyways I had a huge KG collection along with many others and sold most of them after he got traded to the Celtics. As soon as I started selling them I began to get emails from all around the world asking if I would ship to their country, so I changed my NBA listings to be shipped world wide and sold to more different countries than I can name, it was a lot of fun, I made way more money, and never got ripped off once which I was shocked about. So I think what I learned is that when it comes to cards there is a market for everything, and even though the NBA currently sucks it has a massive world wide appeal.

[iggyman]

I am a collector of baseball cards first and foremost, that is part of who I am. My disposable income limits me to what I can or cannot collect. Which is why I don't collect Old Judges (but if they should ever start dropping in prices........I will buy them by the bushel or at least by the pound). Human beings will always have a natural tendency to collect things. That is part of who we are and as a consequence; whales will always exist, because some human beings end-up with more disposable income then they know what to do with. I don't buy into this "end of the world" scenario for baseball cards. The game of baseball is thriving like never before in its history. Throw in the fact that old baseball cards have a unique niche in our society as well as the fact that Japan is baseball crazy (the bets on card prices would be "off" (as in, "all bets are off"), if that society ever started collecting old baseball cards in earnest.....hey, all it would take is some charismatic individual in an info-commercial). As the Exhibitman stated...."It is just silly to think that the hobby will crater (absent of course a total cratering of everything else)....". With all that said, the only thing I know for sure is that not even the "Amazing Krestin" can predict the future.

Lovely Day...

[Leon]

I will go against the grain on this question. Back in about 1998-1999, when ebay first started taking off, I took most of my money from savings and bought rare, quality, pre-war baseball cards. I am NOT advising anyone to do that. It's probably dumb. That being said I have never made a better financial decision in my life. I am sure I am in the minority but just thought I would give that bit of information to the very good discussion going on. I also think vintage collecting will be around for longer than anyone on this board. It's been going for about 75 yrs already...

On a Wagner's value....a vg one is worth multiples of the quote above. I would guess it would be in the 750k-1m range, today.

[Exhibitman]

Thats true, Rhett. I dropped out of collecting from 16-24; just didn't resonate with me. Once I saw the end in sight for school and got a job with what I thought was huge money (hey, after living on $1,000 a month as a student...) I went back to it.

[Jim VB]

...(hey, after living on $1,000 a month as a student...) I went back to it.



Wow! You had $1,000 a month??? Living the high life! (LOL)

[drdduet]

Leon,

I did a similar thing...I recall a few E95 Cobbs, Wagners, and Matty's I picked up and sold about a year later for 4 to 5x what I paid, not to mention a Sports Co. of America Ruth, some National Games, Tom Barker's, Delongs, T206 rare backs, etc--all of which sold at levels too high for me to ignore.

I was picking up National Game/Tom Barkers Joe Jax's (Ex or better) for a couple of hundred dollars each for a time....

[Leon]

Leon,

I did a similar thing...I recall a few E95 Cobbs, Wagners, and Matty's I picked up and sold about a year later for 4 to 5x what I paid, not to mention a Sports Co. of America Ruth, some National Games, Tom Barker's, Delongs, T206 rare backs, etc--all of which sold at levels too high for me to ignore.

I was picking up National Game/Tom Barkers Joe Jax's (Ex or better) for a couple of hundred dollars each for a time....

Hey Dr.D,
I have to admit I got luckey at getting in at the right time AND at that time, if we remember, the stock market was soaring, the economy was soaring and everyone, it seemed, was fairly happy financially. You could just buy a technology stock and it was almost like shooting minnows in barrel (which I wouldn't do but it's a good analogy). Anything I picked, stock wise, just went up exponentially. Then I made a decision, after seeing the hobby growing with the internet, to put a lot of my savings into cardboard. As I said, I would NOT recommend that today....but it worked for me. Hey, sometimes a gamble pays off. The worse thing that could happen was I would have some great cards to look at and collect. Here is one of them I did this strategy with...it came from a Mastro auction and from the Montgomery collection. I remember bidding on the smaller version but after talking to (I think Kevin St.) I decided to wait on this larger type. I put in my bid of about 10k, after what the juice would be, and went to sleep. I got up the next morning and found my bid had stuck. I am not sure what it would go for today but I think it's safe to say it was a good "investment"..... best regards