is ebay killing high grade 50's-60's market?

[mpduq]

does anyone else feel that ebay is killing the high grade 1950's and 1960's baseball card market. by high grade i mean (psa 8 ,psa 9, sgc 88 and higher). cards consistently sell for 50% of smr or lower. i know that the buyers (myself included) enjoy getting good deals, but it just a matter of time before the price guides start reflecting these prices. as far as trying to sell these cards to dealers, dealers now run to ebay to check prices, they don't care what the smr lists card at, they pay you by what card last sold for on ebay.

here are some examples of cards that i have won on ebay in the last 4 months
1950 bowman bobby layne sgc 88 (my winning bid-102.00) (smr -465)
1957 duke snider sgc 88 170.00 smr -350
1957 don larsen sgc 88 62.00 smr - 120
1964 casey stengel psa 9 73.00 smr -200

even though i enjoy getting deals i don't feel this is good for the future of the hobby

[mintacular]

eBay doesn't KILL anything. SMR is usually 1.5 x 2 overpriced (i.e. a $100 SMR card usually sells for $50-75) Thus, eBay completed sales are a closer actual market $ to what the market truly bears, compared to SMR.

If your business plan is based on getting SMR prices on graded stuff, then you are in for a world of hurtin', and deservedly so, IMO...

[Chris Counts]

It sounds to me like the free market is setting the price. Isn't that the way it should be?

[ibuysportsephemera]

I think that eBay has been the price guide for many collectibles for YEARS now.

Jeff

[Chris Counts]

I completely agree with you, Jeff. And unlike the other services, it doesn't cost anything to look at eBay ...

[Exhibitman]

Welcome to the Great Recession. With all that's going on is it any surprise that cards are feeling the pinch?

The basic problem with high grade mainstream postwar cards is that they aren't all that uncommon. I don't think there is an 8/88 out there that can't be found readily with a little effort. With that availability deferring a purchase is easy. Now, if you take a 1 of 1 card or a very low pop card, it will still sell very nicely even with fewer people out there to compete for it.

Of course, if you really care about value maintenance, stop collecting plastic and start collecting classics--go prewar and go rare when you do. When a rare prewar card surfaces it does well in almost any market.

[JasonL]

if buyers are thinking that they are getting good deals relative to the SMR value....helps keep the buyer buying!
It's like an Indian Rug store that has the perpetual "Going out of Business Sale!"
Why wouldn't you buy????
Deals galore!

[Leon]

Well, I am not really a postwar or high grade collector but I have followed a few auctions before and use ebay to buy, extensively. I think Adam hit the nail on the head.

If you can go find the card tomorrow, and cash is short today (as it is for a lot of us), then you put off that buy unless it's a steal ie...a few of the sales listed in the first post. If I were a high grade 50's - 70's collector I would still have some worry that many more of my valuable PSA 9, 1 of 1 cards would come to surface. I am sure a 1 of 5 goes for less than a 1 of 1. I wonder how many unopened cases the Fritsch family still has?

In the pre-war space it's about true rarity and not pop reports. I still get a chuckle when someone asks me about many of my rare cards and ask the pop report on them. I usually just tell them the pop is snap-crackle and move on. :) They obviously don't understand pre-war (WWII)......

edited to add that I am NOT putting down the way anyone collects...if they want to go for high grade post war it is their money...If they have fun collecting that way who am I to rain on their parade?...Hey, who knows, their way might be better in the long run!! (it's not a philosophy I share though)

[mintacular]

I think SMR book prices is the issue, not that demand for post-war vintage has dropped. If your argument is "post-war vintage cards aren't selling for book", then yes, you will lose every time (recession or no recession) as book prices have historically represented the top end price for almost all cards and are almost never realized.

As for pre-war cards, I think any smart consumer recognizes that these cards are a safe investment IF YOU HAVE THE $ and KNOWLEDGE to play the game.

Here's my question: If you had 100 grand to spend on cards and your primary goal was to purchase cards that would appreciate in value over time, would you buy pre-war tobacco cards, etc. or load up on high-grade HOF golden era rookies (Mantle, Koufax, Mays, Clemente, etc)??

I think the argument could be made that supply of high grade post-war cards will stay low enough and demand will be steady (no one family can flood the market with thousands more Clemente cards) and thus a 100 grand investment in these cards could pay dividends.

Here's my issue with the pre-war ones, I think a big chunk of collectors buy cards for the player on the card and memories of post-war players are still fresh with many while pre-war players will fade in the public's conscience as the years roll on...JMO

[Doug]

I'm not sure if you are familiar with Vintage Card Prices or not, but it tracks actual sales of cards and gives you a much better idea of a true "book value". I often consult it before making a major purchase and you can get a 24 hour membership for $3.99 which is a worthy investment IMO to get an idea of the actual market value of a card before you buy.

[GasHouseGang]

I think ebay has helped kill collecting in general. It's not their fault, but as Leon said, if you know the item will be there again next week, nothing is forcing you to buy what is being offered now, for fear you'll never see it again. Nothing is seen as really "rare". Maybe the brand new shiny cards that are 1 of 1 will be the only cards that hold any value in the long run.;)

[mintacular]

Yes, I do have a VCP membership and also recommend it for those buying GRADED vintage cards on a regular basis...It would be wonderful if that site put together data over the years to track general trends...

[Exhibitman]

Here's my question: If you had 100 grand to spend on cards and your primary goal was to purchase cards that would appreciate in value over time, would you buy pre-war tobacco cards, etc. or load up on high-grade HOF golden era rookies (Mantle, Koufax, Mays, Clemente, etc)??



If I had that kind of bank to spend on cards and was looking strictly for appreciation I would load up on prewar major HOFers in nice (not high grade) shape from a mix of popular (T206, CJ, Goudey, E90-1, E120-121), regional (Zeenuts, Collins-McCarthy, Neilsons [yes I know Canada is not a regional but the card availability is similar]), scarce (when I can get them) and 19th century cards. The only postwar cards I would even consider would be genuinely difficult cards--forget high grade--of major HOFers and short prints from popular regional sets (1960 Bell Koufax or Hires test Mays, for example; 1958 Bell Cimoli comes to mind as an example of the latter). Mainstream high grade would not even enter the picture for me, the reason being the initial premise of this thread--they don't hold up in economic downturns and you can't know what the state of the economy will be when you need to cash in. I know I can take rare cards and with a few calls arrange a series of very strong private sales, in any economy short of complete depression. The same cannot be said about PSA 8 postwar cards. I know--I've tried. Even pre-crash you were lucky to net 60% of SMR on them.

[mintacular]

You could only get 60% of SMR on them, but isn't that what you should have bought them for in the first place?? And let's assume you resold some nice Goudey's for 80% of SMR, but what did you have to pay for those card in the first place? SMRs inaccuracy of post-war prices and perhaps closer to reality prices on pre-war stuff, does not prove the point that pre-war cards hold more value than post-war ones relative to what you put into them...

I can tell you right now that if in a pinch I needed to sell my cards, I could set up at a card show & be guaranteed to complete sales on rookies of Maris, Mays, Koufax, etc. with ease. On the otherhand, if I had some pre-war stuff and set up, it would take the right niche collector/dealer to fork over several thousand dollars for those ones. JMO

[HRBAKER]

Do many people view SMR as a price guide? Isn't it more like an advertising vehicle with some columns of numbers in it? I disagree about ebay killing collecting, quite the opposite. I can find almost anything I am looking for within reason in many grades. I used to have to wait for SCD or many mail order catalogs monthly or make several phone calls. The main problem is that most people (me included) think their cards are or should be worth more than they are.

[smtjoy]

Nice thread.

I dont think you can compare ebay prices to smr prices. SMR at best is a guess on the current value vs ebay is an actual price paid for a card (for the majority of ebay sales). To me ebay helps establish a market value.

If not for ebay I would not be collecting, if you are in a remote location that does not have access to shows and dealers you really are down to auction houses and ebay and they both make collecting possible. Now ebay is a large factor in killing off the card shops and shows but to me it is only making cards available to anyone/anywhere.

On the "if I had 100k to invest in cards" I would be doing pretty much what Exhibitman suggested. I would not be buying any mainstream topps/bowman issues and for sure not in high grade 7-10 cards. If I wanted to collect the HOFer you mention I would look hard for Topps test issues like 1968 3D Clemente, 67 68 candy lids, or scarce regional issues like Franks Esslinger Aaron and 1958 Kahns Clemente.

The reason I feel that vintage is a smart buy is there is just not much of it out there. Scarcity is whats going to bring a future rise in price, when you have more people collecting an issue than the number of cards of it out there. An example I collect Exhibits and for a set like 1933 which had 16 cards, PSA and SGC have graded a combined 15 cards (of those 4 are the Ruth). So not even a full set has been graded so you can forget all that low pop stuff because with a set like this you are lucky just to find one in any condition and you can forget about getting a deal on them.

[mintacular]

The cat is out of the bag on all those rare issues you mentioned. So the $ you pay for them will reflect that. I still say for the $ you put in, high grade RCs w/eye appeal for post-war stars is the way to go over random/obscure and overpriced regional issues that look a high-schooler took the picture...

[Exhibitman]

You might have missed a bit of my point about the sales viability of prewar versus postwar. I don't want to/cannot (because there are no shows left ibn SoCal) set up and sit around a mall show all weekend trying to sell cards. If I need to liquidate I need to be able to move, not work a fulltime retail job. I know from past experience that I can literally pick up the phone and arrange large sales at very strong prices for rare prewar cards. I could not do the same for my postwar higher grade stuff unless I was willing to take a wholesale price from a dealer. If the goal is to maximize returns, taking a dealer wholesale offer when you sell or being forced to incur the costs of sitting shows is not the way to do it.

Another issue as far as rthe hypothesis about selling at shows, the point contradicts the premise of much of the thread--if Ebay is an abbatoir for sellers of these cards, why would show attendees pony up substantially more for the same cards that they can get on Ebay? I saw lots and lots of high grade postwar sitting in showcases at empty tables at the National. Didn't look like a great investment to me for the sellers.

[smtjoy]

The great thing about collecting vs investing is there is no bad moves in collecting, not true with investing.

I have two 1955 Topps Clemente Rookies (PSA 6 and 7) I am break even on the 7 after a year and a half, I got the 6 a couple years ago and if I compare what I paid vs the VCP average today I am in the hole over 20%, crappy investment but an awesome card of my favorite player and happy just to own a card I always wanted.

[Rich Klein]

Is that one of the major issues with SMR is that in large parts they are "beholden" to people who advertise with them; instead of tracking actual sales.

if they ever really used VCP (or Card Pricer) properly and did a little more work on pricing; you would probably find these things

1) Cards only priced in conditions they exist. This might have been fixed in recent years; however; this used to be a real problem with the SMR.

2) Prices lowered on those post-war sets.

3) Meanwhile; priced raised on legit difficult pre-war (and other tough modern sets) sets.

4) And on a customer service complaint; I'm one of those rare people who PAY for a subscription to SMR and I've done that a couple of times and I have NEVER gotten a renewal notice. I don't know about you; but throwing away the chance for money by sending a simple renewal notices if just not good common sense.

4A) Because of issue #4 (and I stress this is personal); AND the membership fee to PSA -- why would I ever want to send cards into PSA. I can't have faith in their customer service because they don't know how to run a magazine AND why should I pay $99 for the priveledge of sending cards into PSA. Personally; I would much prefer a price fixe of sub costing X and cards being sent in costing Y (with whatever special deals do come up). I don't want to be a member of a "club"; I just want cards graded! :)

Regards
Rich

[GasHouseGang]

Rich,
I agree with you that they have prices on some cards that according to their own population report, don't even exist. How can they assign a price? Guess, magic 8 ball?

[hcv123]

So how about this Irony - imo PSA has a LOT of issues - some of which have been raised here. Consistency in grading, consistency in establishing their set registry among others and yet.......of all the grading companies, cards in PSA holders seem to demand more money than in any other company holder??
IMO Rich hit a critical nail on the head - how can SMR be taken seriously when they offer "prices" essentially for cards that do not exist in grade!? A bit presumptious and egotistical if you ask me! I would gladly pay DOUBLE SMR for some of the food and test issues they have listed in psa 8 and 9 - (of course the highest graded of most of them is a 5 or 6). Any takers;)

[ebrehm]

Here is what PSA states regarding valuation of cards that have not yet been graded; I assume the same logic would carry over to cards that do not exist in particular grades:

Cards Not Yet Graded or Few Known

In cases where a card has not yet been graded or in cases where a card is extremely scarce and rarely comes up for sale, we do our best to give conservative estimates for those cards. We try to compare that card to other comparable rarities in order to come up with a price but our stance at SMR is that a card is worth what someone is willing to pay so we try to avoid speculating too much and focus on actual sales. If you know of a rarity that has sold privately and it can be verified, let us know. We can’t make changes if we don’t have the pertinent information.

[Rich Klein]

Focus on SALES and not on dealer's retail prices (although knowing them does help in terms of high end retail)

Also; since the SMR says they are based on sales; you can't price a card, however conservatively if it does not exist in that grade.

Remember; I have the experience to say this :)

This is NOT a PSA Bash; rather something that would help the qualilty of their work. And, like I pointed about my subscription renewal issues; just another indication of corporate sloppiness. I understand how hard it is to do price guides accurately; and frankly; Joe SHOULD pass off any of this work except to be a final arbiter on certain cards. Any time Joe spends doing PG work is time he can't spend attempting to make money for CU.

Regards
Rich

[Exhibitman]

This fake SMR pricing nonsense has been an issue since it was a plain paper mailer sent every month to the PSA users. I wrote an article on this very subject in VCBC 11 back in the mid-1990s.

[ThoseBackPages]

i wish more eBay sellers would list LOW end slabs in the "auction" format

[wilkcards]

SMR value doesn't mean much anymore. It doesn't reflect the market.

Also, it's just full of errors. check 52 topps #20 billy loes. smr value of psa 7 is $850, and psa 7.5 is $750. I emailed them a couple weeks ago and they still haven't fixed it. Pathetic.

[Rich Klein]

Here's a link to that thread.

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=745237

Rich

[Exhibitman]

Nice CU thread.

I have to laugh at people who take the SMR's articles seriously. The SMR is not an objective piece of journalism nor a serious research journal. It is a public relations device for PSA. That is why they cover shiny crap like Dan Marino cards--to drum up submissions of large pop modern cards as the finite supply of vintage dwindles.

[sportscardtheory]

Also take into consideration that more and more of the cards from that era are being slabbed, thus creating higher supply and less demand.

[fkw]

If properly listed,.... I always thought eBay was the Market Value

For any collectible big or small.

[Exhibitman]

I don't think it is quite that simple, Frank, at least for cards; it isn't like the NYSE. There is a considerable segment of the collecting public for expensive cards that do not deal with Ebay for a variety of reasons. The same card that sells for $100 on Ebay frequently sells for considerably more in a major auction or even via sale here on the BST. Ebay's changes haven't made it any better, either; the place has become an abbatoir for sellers of late, with results far worse than auctions.