7/17/07 DOW hits 14,000 >> Now 8700, but BB hobby still thriving ?

[tedzan]

Gee, it seems like it was just yesterday when the DOW peaked at a little over 14,000 on July 17th 2007.
At about the same time (9/2007) the famous (or infamous) T206 Wagner sold for $2.8 Million. Everything
was just hunky-dory if you liked investing in the Stock Market or BB cards.

So, what happened ?

Well, I'll leave that to the so-called experts....however, what is very interesting is that BB card prices are
not declining as such. Are BB card values a lagging indicator....or what ? ?

Any one here venture a guess as to what the future will bring in this hobby ?

I expect the forthcoming National might portend the near-end future of this hobby in these trying economic
times.


T-Rex TED

[Rich Klein]

This economic slowdown is so much like 81-83 that it is not funny. I don't want to get into a political battle here -- but the question is, and we'll see if it gets answered -- was the Reagan way out of the depths a better way out or will the Obama way work better. We don't know yet about the Obama way; so again, this is not designed to create haters; rather just a fact we don't know.

And Ted; like you I was around and vest-pocket dealing in that period. The hobby was actually beginning the march towards the explosion of the late 80's and interestingly vintage card prices took a beating for much of that era. The most famous case was the 52T Mantle going from public sales of more than 3K to $500. Other commons of that ilk also took a ride down. Those cards would not recover totally until Black Monday in 1987.

By early 1988; Beckett Monthly had NO Arrows in one of their issues as everything was going up too rapidly and there was a page 1 editorial in Beckett Monthly stating that.

And unlike that period; old cards now have an even better cache as a fun investible to hold and make money on; so I expect that they will go lower in value less easily than other forms of american dollars; etc. I know he was entertaining; but I frankly think Marshall Barkman when he was here was dead on on Silver going to $30 and I think Gold has a shot to go to $1500 in the near future. And don't be surprised if Stocks go up as well. Now that a lot of "small" investors are out; the big money may go for a ride again.

I'm semi quoting one of the CNBC people here -- but in a column last week -- he wrote -- Dow to 10K; Obama be damned.

Ted; I would love to see you in Clevleand and compare notes on 81-83 versus 2007-09

Regards
Rich

[tedzan]

I well remember 1980 when Rob and Bob in Philadelphia made front page news by auctioning
off 3 - 1952 Topps Mantle's for an unprecedented $10,000.

And, as you said, by 1982 the same Mantle's had de-valuated to $500 each.

But, concurrently, the 1963 Topps Rose rookie cards were increasing exponentially. Correct
me if my recollection of $250 by 1982 for the Rose card is wrong ?

I remember buying a few at the St Louis National in the Summer of '82 for $100 and selling
them at Philly in September for $200.

TED Z

[Rich Klein]

Yes the Rose RC (as well as the Schmidt and the Carlton RC's) were all exploding in that time frame.

The Rose went from a quarter in 1979 to those insane prices by 82/83 and Carlton and Schmidt were not far behind but any and all cards of those players were incredibly popular. I could not keep any reasonably priced card of those three players in stock at that time.

We don't quite have any good matches for that today -- cards such as any of the Jeter RC's or Chipper or other players not yet tarnished by the steroid age arent quite the same. I suspect Sir Albert Pujols may be the closest player today to what R, C and S were in the early 80's.

Like I said; the country's economic condition is similar but the hobby is sure different. We have more "classic' collectors now and I think that helps. In those days; finding older cards was easier than it is today.

In a different market

What I'm noticing is that the "autograph" market for modern players seems to be settling down. Several shows and promoters are looking for more "collector-friendly" players in terms of pricing. Dave Jackson (I may be butchering his name so I apologize in advance) runs shows in St Louis and is making a point to keep autograph prices as low as possible for him to attract fans and still make a small profit. The "Edge Fest" show in Chicago this weekend also apparently has many decently priced autograph guests, especially on Friday.

I did not thoroughly check the National's autograph prices but I'd wager Jeff, Bobby et al are making sure there are a few reasonably priced for the collector guests as well.

[barrysloate]

One result of the poor economy is that more people are trying to make some extra money buying and selling baseball cards. As such, large lots that in the past had pretty good break value are now selling very close to full retail. Many of the buyers of these lots are putting these cards straight on ebay, and then finding that there isn't all that much profit to be made. I'm surprised that some of these group lot prices haven't fallen as buyers begin to realize they are overpaying for them.

[Exhibitman]

I'm finding lots of cheaper cards postwar and from mainstream sets. Add in rarity, however, and the market has substantially dried up or remains strong. My hunch is that there is a strong core of collectors whose prospects haven't been dimmed by the crash, other than a decline in portfolios. Heck, I now have an even better excuse for buying more cards--what else was I going to do with the money, piss it away on stocks or real estate?

[tedzan]

This is very true......
" Yes the Rose RC (as well as the Schmidt and the Carlton RC's) were all exploding in that time frame. ? "

I bet you would agree that the 1980 World Champions Phillies and the Willow Grove Show had a lot to do
with the growth of the "rookie card craze" ?

Initially, it can be attributed to the hype of the 1952 Topps Mantle "rookie" card, that started the "rookie
card craze" in 1980. Of course, many of us knew that Mantle's 1951 Bowman was his true ROOKIE card.
However, his Bowman card got no respect back then. I never really understood that. But, who was I to go
"against the flow". I was buying up the 1951 Mantle cards at $50 - $100 apiece....while the Topps Mantle
was selling for $1000's.

Subsequently, every star player's 1st card was selling at premium.....indeed, it was a very interesting time
to be in this hobby.


TED Z

[Rich Klein]

And I would also state that with some "hype-manipulation" from Mark Lewis and CPU -- there was also quite the growth that way as well. Nothing works quite as well as when someone sees it in print.

Regards
Rich

[Potomac Yank]

The people that voted for Hope, and Yes We Can, may have found themselves someone that can fix a rudder on a disabled ship, and knows how to read a compass.
Salvaging the rudderless S.S. Titanic II, is not easy, but with all the odds against it ... we are seeing signs of slowly getting back on course.

Let's pull together, because except for the whales, we're all in this boat together. :)

[tedzan]

Interesting that you should mention Mark Lewis. He was a tough character to deal with back in the early '80s.
I recall getting into an argument with him regarding how his Card Prices Update (CPU) guide was hyping up cer-
tain Topps cards (rookies) and de-valuating certain other cards (1952 Topps Hi#s and 1949 Bowmans).

Then, you recall that he ran into some trouble and dropped out of sight. Years later her returned as a dealer at
the Ft. Washington Show in the early '90s and had "mellowed-out".


TED Z

[barrysloate]

Mark Lewis ran into a lot of trouble, when it was determined that he plagiarized lists from Beckett and copied them verbatim in his CPU. He disappeared after that.

[tedzan]

Mark re-appeared in 1994 as a dealer at the Ft. Washington Show with an eclectic display of pre-war and post-war
cards at his table.

I bought a few cards from him and was surprised how friendly and fair he was with me on our deal.


TED Z

[calvindog]

Gee, it seems like it was just yesterday when the DOW peaked at a little over 14,000 on July 17th 2007.


Have no fear, Ted, the Dow will be back at 14,000 in just about six months. All the smart money guys on the board say so, you'll see.

[Rich Klein]

Even the CNBC Cheerleaders have the Dow Jones index only going to 10,000;14,000 seems like a pipe dream to them as well

Mark Lewis; yes interesting things have happenned to him in the hobby as well. At one of the Cleveland National Conventions; an overhead watermain or something similar broke and soaked everything on his table.

At least when he produced an pricing magazine; he did not pull a Richie Schwaroch (sic); whose final issue of CCP was not a magazine but a double-sided flyer that included fine words that included "government experiment". If ANYONE still has a copy of that final flyer; I'd love to have a copy.

[joeadcock]

Just an observation of two particular cards, and what has happened to them in the last several months, despite the ECONOMY.

A PSA 9 Mickey Mantle from 1968 went for $1000 flat at last years REA Auction. Same card, a PSA 9 went for $1900 + in an auction about 4 to 6 weeks ago. Huge increase in short time(few months).

I just won the Scoops E107 for over $1700 in recent auction, several hundred more than same card went for end of last year auction.

These are 2 examples(one prewar, one postwar) that have certainly not been affected by the horrendous economic situation.

I cant image how we will reach 14000 again(soon), in the market. Difference here(compared to past), is the massive debt we are accumulating. Dont see how we will recover from this. Money is being spent that does not exist, in INCREDIBLE AMOUNTS. It makes me ill.

Frank L.