Opinions welcomed and requested on the number of t206 Cobbs in existence.

[jbbama]

I realize this is a rather vague question given all the variations out there. However, i would like the learned opinions of some of our knowledgeable members. Given the Green portrait Cobb sells for more than the others (grades being equal) naturally i assume this issue has fewer examples available. Really any general guesses/estimates of the numbers (graded/raw) of each of the four Cobbs is appreciated. I really have no clue............

Thanks,JB

[tedzan]

Data from years of T206 surveys show the following availability of the four Cobb's in this set......

Normalizing the data to "100" for the Red Cobb, the relative numbers for the other three are......

Red Cobb....100........(found with 24 diff. T-backs)

Bat Off........55.........(found with 18 diff. T-backs)

Bat On.........48.........(found with 8 diff. T-backs)

Green..........42.........(found with 8 diff. T-backs)


How many of these Cobb's are actually in circulation is virtually impossible to account for.


TED Z

[T206Collector]

How many of these Cobb's are actually in circulation is virtually impossible to account for.

I believe Scot Reader's Inside T206 has population estimates -- or at least the tools for a population estimate.

[tedzan]

Scot Reader's excellent book...."Inside T206" (Centennial Edition)....discusses the general "Survivability"
of the T206's and provides availability numbers of the "Big Six" cards.

I do not find any specific numbers on any of the four Cobb cards.


TED Z

[jbbama]

Thanks guys............it would be tough to know the amount of raw cards still out there, however , i could get an idea of some numbers by accounting for the graded issues of each Cobb from (PSA, SGC,BVG). Just a thought?

[T206Collector]

That is what I was talking about. From Scot Reader's book:

Thus, if one assumes that roughly 200 of each of these rare subjects remain in existence, and further assumes that survival rates for these subjects conform with those of other subjects, the surviving quantity of a typical 350-only subject is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3,000. Finally, assuming for the sake of rough-and-ready calculation uniformity of survival among series, the total number of T206 specimens in existence today is estimable in the general vicinity of 1.6 million. Of course, if there are 400 examples each of Demmitt (St. Louis) and O.Hara (St. Louis) extant instead of 200, the presumed number of T206 cards with us today doubles to 3.2 million, or about 6,000 per subject on average, under this same analysis.

In any case, of the likely hundreds of millions of specimens initially produced, it seems highly probable that the number of T206 cards in existence today is in the low singledigit millions, or a few thousand for a typical subject. This is quite possibly less than one percent of the original production, with the vast majority of these survivors being in lower grade.


If Red Cobb's were double-printed, you'd be at about 10,000 for those. And then you could deduce from relative scarcity how many of the others might be there. Again, this is all rife speculation, but I like his analysis.

You can read the whole darn thing here (and yes, it takes into account relative numbers of cards graded by PSA, etc.):

http://www.oldcardboard.com/t/t206/InsideT206-3-edition.pdf

[barrysloate]

12,000 seems high...I'll guess half that number, or 6000. It is based on nothing scientific.

[tedzan]

PAUL M

With all due respect....I have read and re-read Scot's book several times....and, have contributed to it.

Now, you cite this in your above comments......
" the surviving quantity of a typical 350-only subject "

Scot was specifically referring to his estimate of the surviving quantities of the Demmitt & O'Hara (St Louis vars.),
which are in the 350-only subject Series. He did not refer to any of the Cobb's.

And as you know, none of the four Cobb's are in the 350-only Series. For those who aren't sure......
The Green and Bat On Cobb's are in the 150/350 Series.
And, the Red and Bat Off Cobb's are in the 350/460 Series.

Furthermore, the Red Cobb leads the "T206 pack" with at least 24 different T-backs; therefore, any attempt to
extrapolate how many of this Cobb are available by using normal T206 estimates is a virtually impossible task.
This T206 Subject is in a class of its own.


TED Z

[T206Collector]

...baseball card populations that can't be proven one way or the other. But it is fun to guesstimate.

Given that you are willing to put a 2:1 ratio down for Red:Green Cobbs, why wouldn't you also try to extrapolate total population?

"With all due respect....I have read and re-read Scot's book several times....and, have contributed to it."

Also, if it is a measure of competency here, I have read, re-read, re-re-read and contributed to Scot's book as well. I also sent him $25.00 when he first came out with it because I felt like I shouldn't get such a cool book for free.

[FrankWakefield]

Speculation from all of us, no way to ever know... but general guesses based on our experience would have some of us thinking there are tens of thousands of Cobb T206s, not hundreds, but tens. I'd think the very low tens... And when you add up all of the pop reports on the slabbed ones it is a certainty that there are fewer slabbed Cobbs out there than the numbers suggest. Some have been broken out and remain that way, some have been reslabbed. That renders those hard population report numbers inaccurate.

[fkw]

Ive always heard and thought a good guess is about 2,000-3,000 of ea. card out there. The "green" and "bat on" would be in the 2,000 range and the "red" and "bat off" in the 3,000 range IMO

This is not fact just a guess based on an estimate that there are about 1,000,000 T206 cards surviving today.

[drc]

I'd heard the 2000 number before.

[jbbama]

I appreciate all the ideas and speculation (that's what it is) about the Cobbs, there are no wrong answers just opinions. Thanks to all who have responded.

[sreader3]

I will guesstimate as follows:

Green = 2,500
Bat On = 3,000
Bat Off = 3,500
Red = 6,000

The starting point for this analysis is my estimate of 3,000 extant examples of a typical T206 subject. I then added a "kicker" for a presumed higher than average survival of Cobb due to his stardom, then normalized the data per the relative populations of the four Cobbs in the PSA population report.

[tedzan]

Here is an excerpt from the Red Cobb survey thread. Back in April, I was asked a similar question. This was
my best estimate....which I based on a combination of T206 surveys totaling 40,00 cards....and, consisting
of 196 Red Cobb's. Therefore, I derived from this a factor of 200:1

Excerpt......
" Furthermore, Scot Reader, in his book "Inside T206", has a chapter on the "survivability" of the T206 cards.
If I recall correctly, he estimates approx. 1 to 2 Million cards. I think Scot's estimate is a good one.
So, if we divide 1 Million T206's by 200, it yields 5,000 red Cobb's. This number might sound high; and, I am
sure I'll be challenged on this population #.....but, that's my best guess. "


Scot....it's very interesting that 2 independent minds came up with approx. the same number of Red Cobb's ?

And therefore, given these 2 coinciding estimates, I think you're right on track with your following population
numbers of the other three Cobb's.



TED Z

[drc]

Talk to James Beckett for ideas. He was a statistics professor.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If there are 5000 Red Cobbs that means only 1 in 60,000 Americans, give or take, owns one; and since many collectors own multiples the number probably gets much higher. Does this sound right?

[FrankWakefield]

Peter, that sounds right... if red Cobb T206s are only owned by Americans.


But I suspect that a few are owned by non-Americans. And I agree that several folks own more than one.

So maybe 12 to 15 people in a city of a million own a red Cobb. Maybe 6 or 7 of those dozen or so have one of each of the 4 Cobbs.



I still think my low tens of thousands is about right. 12k to 15k... who knows?

[tedzan]

Sorry to disagree with you; but, a simple division of 300 Meg/5 K is very misleading.
First of all, 1/2 the population are women and 99.99% of them don't collect BB cards.
Then of the male population another significant portion of it doesn't fall into the age
brackets that would most likely collect vintage BB cards. When you boil it all down,
a fair estimate is that approx. 2000-4000 T206 collectors are out there. Some who
have (or strive to) complete this set and others who collect HOFer's or their favorite
players.

Yes, there are some collectors who have multiples of the Red Cobb, I have complete
sets of Piedmont, Sovereign, and Sweet Cap (Factory 30) which include 4 red Cobb's
between them. But then, I'm a very rare exception to the norm.

I think Scot Reader's 6000 estimate is very close to the actual red Cobb population.
And, his numbers on the other 3 - T206 Cobb's are very representative of what we
have repeatedly seen in T206 surveys.


TED Z